Tag:

forex

Calm before the next currency storm? These events can cause chaos on FOREX! EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, CHF/PLN, GBP/PLN exchange rates – forecasts | FXMAG INVESTOR

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com December 12, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

fot. freepik.com

Last week exchange rate EURPLN increased to 4.3292 (PLN weakening by 0.2%). Last week, the zloty exchange rate was characterized by limited volatility, which was supported by a poor calendar of macroeconomic events. However, we saw a clear downward trend in the case of course EURUSD, which was a continuation of the trends observed in previous weeks. Weakened dollars against the euro is supported by increased expectations for interest rate cuts. The data from the American labor market published on Friday did not have a significant impact on the currency market.

Intensifying expectations for interest rate cuts

Last week, 2 years old IRS rates decreased to 4.84 (decrease by 15bp), 5-year to 4.36 (decrease by 24bp), and 10-year to 4.52 (decrease by 19bp). Last week, there was a further decline in IRS rates along the entire curve, which was a continuation of the trend from two weeks ago. IRS rates decreased following the core markets, where growing expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks are reducing bond yields.

Forecasts of monthly macroeconomic indicators

Calm before the next currency storm? These events can cause chaos on FOREX! EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, CHF/PLN, GBP/PLN exchange rates - forecasts - 3

Forecasts of quarterly macroeconomic indicators

Calm before the next currency storm? These events can cause chaos on FOREX! EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, CHF/PLN, GBP/PLN exchange rates - forecasts - 4

Calendar

Calm before the next currency storm? These events can cause chaos on FOREX! EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, CHF/PLN, GBP/PLN exchange rates - forecasts - 5

2023-12-11 20:48:00
#Calm #currency #storm #events #chaos #FOREX #EURPLN #USDPLN #CHFPLN #GBPPLN #exchange #rates #forecasts #FXMAG #INVESTOR

December 12, 2023 0 comments

Business

〈New York Forex Market〉 Fed officials expressed dovetails as the U.S. dollar index fell to a more than three-month low and the euro rose above 1.1 U.S. dollars | Anue Juheng-Forex

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com November 28, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

After dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials,dollar indexIt fell to a three-month low on Tuesday (28th). Investors believe that U.S. economic growth has begun to slow since entering an aggressive tightening cycle last March, which should prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy at some point next year.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, U.S. interest rate futures indicate a 23% chance of a rate cut in March next year, while the chance of a May rate cut has risen to about 50%.

In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.42% to 102.77, the lowest since August 31. The decline in November is expected to exceed 3%, marking the worst monthly performance since November 2022.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: “For decades, when the U.S. economy has been extremely weak or strong relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. dollar has tended to perform better. In situations similar to the current one, when most major economies “When the economy is just barely getting over the hump and the growth gap between the U.S. and other regions narrows, the dollar usually falls.”

“Dollar outflows will continue to grow through the end of the year as investors rebalance their portfolios and take advantage of cooling growth expectations for 2024,” he said.

Dovish comments from Fed officials also weighed on the dollar. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is increasingly confident that current interest rates are restrictive enough, and even hinted that if inflation continues to decline and approaches the Fed’s 2% target, interest rates may be cut in the coming months.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee praised the progress in cooling inflation, saying such a pace had not been seen since the 1950s.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman agreed that the central bank has made progress in guiding inflation down, but also said that she will pay close attention to the next economic data. If the anti-inflation progress stalls, it may not be enough to bring the inflation rate down in time. Back to 2%, she is willing to support a rate increase at future meetings.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in November, rising to 102 from 99.1 after three consecutive months of declines, but households still expected a recession next year. On the other hand, the US FHFA house price index accelerated again in September, with an annual increase of 6.1%.

EURIt rose above US$1.1 against the US dollar for the first time in more than three months, rising 0.32% to US$1.0989 at the time of writing.GBPIt also rose nearly 0.6% to $1.2696, both rising for four consecutive sessions.

Traders are watching core U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data due later this week for further confirmation that inflation is slowing.In addition to PCE, includingEURThe inflation rate of the region’s major economies, China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the production meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its oil-producing allies (OPEC+) are also market focuses this week.

As the dollar falls,JPYrebounded 0.8% to 147.47 JPYagainst 1 US dollar.Swiss francThe Swiss franc rose 0.2% to 0.8781 Swiss franc per dollar, the highest since early September.Australian dollarHitting a nearly four-month high, it rose 0.6% to $0.6648 at press time.

New Zealand dollarIt rose nearly 0.7% to $0.6136, the highest since early August. The Bank of New Zealand will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, and the market expects the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% for the fourth consecutive time.

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Wednesday (29th), price:

dollar indexReport 102.7385. -0.4635%
EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst US$1.0993. +0.3652%
GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2698. +0.5623%
Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6648. +0.6358%
USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate is quoted at 1.3571 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。-0.3232%
USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate was quoted at 147.45 per U.S. dollar JPY。-0.8273%

2023-11-28 22:18:43
#York #Forex #Market #Fed #officials #expressed #dovetails #U.S #dollar #index #fell #threemonth #euro #rose #U.S #dollars #Anue #JuhengForex

November 28, 2023 0 comments

Business

The market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of next year and the U.S. dollar will have its worst monthly performance in a year | Anue Juheng-Forex

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com November 28, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

dollar indexIt fell on Monday (27th) and was at a nearly three-month low. Suppressed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year,dollar indexThis month is expected to post its largest monthly decline in a year.

In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.21% to 103.19, almost the lowest since August 31.DXY This month’s decline may exceed 3%, marking the worst monthly performance since November 2022.

Monex USA foreign exchange trader Helen Given said that compared with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024 has increased, which is putting pressure on the dollar today.

CME’s FedWatch tool shows that the probability that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as March is about 23%, and the probability of cutting interest rates starting in May has risen to about 50%.

Economic data showed that new home sales in the United States fell more than expected in October, falling 5.6% year-on-year to 679,000 households after seasonal adjustment. The September data was also revised downward from the original 759,000 households to 719,000 households.

Given said: “Before the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is released on Wednesday (29th), it is unlikely that the dollar will reverse its decline. If the U.S. economy can continue to grow, rather than as some economists With a sharp decline like that forecast, we could see a stronger dollar at the end of the month.”

Investors are also focusing on a series of events and economic data this week that may affect future interest rate trends, including the postponed Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) meeting, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, andEURDistrict, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other data. The market is also paying attention to the Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision and China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

In terms of other currencies, the U.S. dollarJPYDown 0.5% to 148.65 JPY。EURIt edged up 0.16% to $1.0954, rising more than 3% so far this month.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, EURInflation pressure in the region is easing, but wage growth remains strong, and the battle to curb price pressure is not over yet.EURThere was little reaction to Lagarde’s remarks.

GBPContinuing last week’s gains, it rose 0.2% to $1.2627, at a more than two-month high.

Australian dollarClimbing to a more than three-month high of $0.6606, up nearly 0.4%; ahead of this week’s central bank interest rate decision,New Zealand dollarup 0.3% to $0.6098. Market expectations are that the Bank of New Zealand will keep the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%.

RMBAfter the official central parity rate against the U.S. dollar stopped rising five times in a row, the offshoreRMBIt fell 0.13% against the dollar to 7.1593 RMBto US$1, onshoreRMBIt fell slightly by 0.06% to 7.1528 RMBagainst 1 US dollar.

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Tuesday (28th), price:

dollar indexReport 103.2158. -0.2105%
EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst US$1.0954. +0.1554%
GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2627. +0.1745%
Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6606. +0.3799%
USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate is quoted at 1.3615 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。-0.1247%
USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate was quoted at 148.68 per U.S. dollar JPY。-0.4819%

2023-11-27 22:14:54
#York #Forex #market #betting #Fed #cut #interest #rates #year #U.S #dollar #worst #monthly #performance #year #Anue #JuhengForex

November 28, 2023 0 comments

Business

The market is betting that U.S. interest rates have peaked and DXY fell back for two consecutive weeks | Anue Juheng-Forex

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com November 25, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

The United States earlier reported that business activity was stable in November, but private sector employment fell, in line with market expectations for an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter.dollar indexIt fell on Friday (24th), closing in the black for the second consecutive week.

In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.34% to 103.42, near the 2-1/2-month low hit earlier this week.

After falling 1.9% last week,dollar indexAnother nearly 0.5% drop this week would mark its worst monthly performance in a year, as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will finish raising interest rates and start cutting them next year.

Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader .”

S&P Global announced that the initial value of the U.S. Composite PMI Output Index in November remained unchanged at 50.7 as moderate growth in the service industry helped offset the contraction in the manufacturing industry. However, the lack of strong order growth has led to companies laying off workers, and the employment index fell to 49.7 from 51.3 in October, falling into contraction territory for the first time since June 2020.

Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, said economic data has provided plenty of evidence of a recession in the United States.

In terms of other major currencies,JPYUp slightly 0.1% to 149.41 JPYAgainst the US dollar, it appreciated 0.1% this week. Japan announced that the national core consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, which was higher than the 2% target set by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for 19 consecutive months, but slightly lower than the 3% forecast by economists polled by Reuters. %.

Core inflation picked up slightly in October, reinforcing investors’ views that the Bank of Japan will remove monetary stimulus soon.

ING economists expect the Bank of Japan to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance next year. “We believe that the trend of government bonds seems to have stabilized, and the Bank of Japan may cancel the yield curve control (YCC) policy as soon as the first quarter of next year. If wage growth continues to accelerate next year, the central bank will start to raise interest rates from the second quarter of next year. “

EURIt rose 0.3% to $1.0937, rising nearly 0.3% on the week.

Germany reported that its third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.1% from the previous quarter, in line with the preliminary estimate released in late October. However, business confidence improved for the third consecutive month in November, and a series of surveys showed that the recession in Germany may be deeper than Expectations were even shallower and helped offset pessimistic expectations for business activity in France.

GBPIt rose 0.56% to $1.2601, the highest since early September, and rose more than 1.1% this week. Data on Thursday showed that British business activity returned to growth in November, fueling hopes that the country could avoid a recession.

cryptocurrencyIn terms of market,BitcoinIt rose more than 1% to $37,733, its highest level since May 2022.A lotBitcoinandEthereumThe application for issuance of spot ETFs has caused severe damage to the market last year.cryptocurrencyThe market is revitalized.

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Saturday (25th), price:

dollar indexReport 103.4359. -0.3125%
EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst US$1.0937. +0.3026%
GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2605. +0.5745%
Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6581. +0.3660%
USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate quoted at 1.3632 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。-0.4673%
USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate was quoted at 149.41 per US dollar JPY。-0.1070%

2023-11-24 23:07:48
#York #Forex #market #betting #U.S #interest #rates #peaked #DXY #fell #consecutive #weeks #Anue #JuhengForex

November 25, 2023 0 comments

Business

U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days | Anue Juheng-Forex

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com November 23, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

After the U.S. reported a larger-than-expected decline in initial jobless claims last week,dollar indexIt rose on Wednesday (22nd), continuing the trend of the previous day and rebounding from a two-and-a-half-month low.

In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) rose 0.32% to 103.89.

The U.S. Department of Labor pointed out that in the week ended November 18, the number of initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000, the lowest level in more than a month and lower than economists polled by Reuters Expected 226,000.

On the other hand, U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in October as strike action by the United Auto Workers union (UAW) led to a decline in auto and parts orders.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said: “The job market is not cooling as fast as the market or the Fed expected. At the same time, the fact that capital spending has slowed indicates that the underlying momentum in the economy has faded, which is generally Still consistent with the soft landing thesis, but the labor market is more resilient than expected.”

dollar indexOn Tuesday (21st) it fell to the lowest level since August 31st, and stabilized with the release of the Fed meeting minutes. The Fed noted that officials believe inflation remains well above target, but said further interest rate increases would only be needed if the latest data showed insufficient progress in containing price pressures.

CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that the market has almost ruled out the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in December, and believes that the chance of a rate cut in May is more than 50%.

U.S. consumer inflation expectations rose for the second consecutive month in November, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed.

EURContinuing yesterday’s decline, it fell 0.22% to $1.0887. European Central Bank (ECB) official Mario Centeno predicted that overall economic conditions will cause the central bank’s interest rate hike cycle to reverse soon. ECB Board Member Joachim Nagel also said,EURRegional interest rates are approaching, or have already reached, current cycle highs.

JPYIt fell 0.8% against the dollar to 149.59 JPYagainst 1 US dollar.

GBPfell 0.35% to $1.2495. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt announced tax cuts, estimated to affect 27 million workers, while providing permanent investment incentives for businesses to boost the economy.

Binance agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine, reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, and CEO Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to criminal charges of violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws.cryptocurrencyThe exchange’s investigation has also come to an end.

BitcoinAfter falling yesterday, it rose 2.23% to $37,781 today.Binance CoinIt fell 2.5% to $237.33. Since Changpeng Zhao stepped down, investors have withdrawn approximately $956 million from Binance in the past 24 hours.

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Thursday (23rd), price:

dollar indexReport 103.8795. +0.2638%
EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst US$1.0889. -0.2016%
GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2496. -0.3270%
Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6542. -0.2135%
USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate is quoted at 1.3688 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。-0.0876%
USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate was quoted at 149.60 per U.S. dollar JPY。+0.8154%

2023-11-22 22:07:20
#York #Stock #Exchange #U.S #unemployment #benefits #fell #expected #U.S #dollar #index #rebounded #consecutive #days #Anue #JuhengForex

November 23, 2023 0 comments

Business

〈New York Forex Market〉The U.S. dollar index hits a more than two-month low and the yen continues to rebound against the U.S. dollar | Anue Juheng-Forex

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com November 21, 2023

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

dollar indexIt fell to a more than two-month low on Monday (20th), continuing last week’s decline. Investors generally believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its interest rate hike cycle and are looking forward to when it will start cutting interest rates.

In late New York trading, ICE tracks the dollar against six major currencies. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.45% to 103.45, its lowest level since September 1.

The U.S. Economic Council announced on Monday that leading economic indicators fell 0.8% in October, the 19th consecutive month of decline, and the decline was higher than market expectations of 0.7%. With recent data showing that economic and inflationary pressures are moderating, the market has ruled out the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Fed.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market Fed is paying attention to when it will start to cut interest rates, and currently expects that the probability of cutting interest rates by at least 1% in May is more than 50%.

Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com, said: “Whether it’s from a credit, stock or foreign exchange perspective, the market believes that the Fed has completed raising interest rates, but they are unwilling to say so. We all know this, we have seen it in the past, I’ve heard of it too.”

However, recent comments from some Fed officials have not ruled out the possibility of further interest rate hikes if economic data changes. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Monday that inflation may remain stubborn, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high for longer than investors currently expect.

Compared with the weakening trend of the US dollar,EURIt rose more than 0.2% to $1.0939, and once hit the highest level since August 15, as the market expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) would continue to maintain the interest rate hike cycle after the Fed ends its interest rate hikes.

In addition, Moody’s recently unexpectedly raised the outlook on Italy’s sovereign credit rating from “negative” to “stable” with a rating of Baa3, while also raising Portugal’s debt rating by two notches to A3.

GBPIt hit a two-month high intraday, rising nearly 0.4% to $1.2505 at press time.JPYIt also had a strong trend last week, rising nearly 0.8% to 148.43 JPYAgainst the dollar, it was at about a six-and-a-half-week high.

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Tuesday (21st), price:

dollar indexReport 103.4865. -0.3283%
EURExchange rate quote against the US dollar (EUR/USD) 1 EURAgainst US$1.0941. +0.2566%
GBPExchange rate quote against the US dollar (GBP/USD) 1 GBPagainst US$1.2505. +0.3692%
Australian dollarExchange rate quote against the US dollar (AUD/USD) 1 Australian dollaragainst USD 0.6557. +0.6601%
USD vs.Canadian Dollars (USD/CAD) exchange rate is quoted at 1.3725 per US dollar Canadian Dollars。+0.0656%
USD vs.JPY (USD/JPY) exchange rate was quoted at 148.41 per US dollar JPY。-0.7822%

2023-11-20 22:04:41
#York #Forex #MarketThe #U.S #dollar #index #hits #twomonth #yen #continues #rebound #U.S #dollar #Anue #JuhengForex

November 21, 2023 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

forex

Calm before the next currency storm? These events can cause chaos on FOREX! EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, CHF/PLN, GBP/PLN exchange rates – forecasts | FXMAG INVESTOR

See also: Currency rates 11/12: increase ⚠️ Is the dollar facing an earthquake?

See also: What an earthquake on currencies: the euro rate dropped by 56 groszy, and the franc was cheaper by PLN 0.36

Intensifying expectations for interest rate cuts

See also: Exchange rates of the dollar, lira, franc, euro, pound and krona: forecasts for 2024 are already available

See also: We already know how much you will pay for currencies in 2024

Forecasts of monthly macroeconomic indicators

Forecasts of quarterly macroeconomic indicators

Calendar

〈New York Forex Market〉 Fed officials expressed dovetails as the U.S. dollar index fell to a more than three-month low and the euro rose above 1.1 U.S. dollars | Anue Juheng-Forex

The market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of next year and the U.S. dollar will have its worst monthly performance in a year | Anue Juheng-Forex

As of approximately 6:00 Taiwan time on Tuesday (28th), price:

The market is betting that U.S. interest rates have peaked and DXY fell back for two consecutive weeks | Anue Juheng-Forex

U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days | Anue Juheng-Forex

〈New York Forex Market〉The U.S. dollar index hits a more than two-month low and the yen continues to rebound against the U.S. dollar | Anue Juheng-Forex