Foreign exchange

Written by: Naoto Ono, Gaitame.com Research Institute

table of contents

Date of writing: 12:00 on January 19, 2024

Aware of 150 yen, things could get rough depending on the reaction of the Bank of Japan and authorities

USD/JPY rose to the 148 yen level for the week of January 15th

In the US presidential nomination race, former President Trump won the Republican convention in Iowa, and expectations for a March interest rate cut in the US receded due to solid consumer trends, supporting the US dollar/yen. The US dollar/yen pair hit a new high of 148.525 yen, the highest since November 28 of last year. (Each rate level is as of the time of writing)

FX live commentary, the yen weakens after all, and overseas long-term investors are looking at 200 yen to the dollar (January 18, 2024)

*Market trends are also explained on a program broadcast by Gaitame.com Research Institute’s TEAM Harrons.

Is the Japan-U.S. policy gap widening?

Next week’s USD/JPY price will be determined by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting and Governor Ueda’s press conference on the 23rd, as well as the U.S. quarterly real price for the October-December quarter on the 25th. It is likely that transactions will be made while checking preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures and December 26 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) statistics.

Regarding the Bank of Japan meeting, there are not many positive factors for policy revisions, such as the extent of the impact of the Noto Peninsula earthquake not being fully confirmed, and expectations for a reduction in the inflation outlook due to the recent peaking of prices. Therefore, the prevailing outlook is to leave monetary policy unchanged. The focus is on whether the debate over the certainty of achieving a virtuous cycle of wages and prices will deepen. Although it is Governor Ueda’s wish to lift negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC), given that the Sakura report concludes that “uncertainty remains regarding the transfer of wage increases to service prices.” It cannot be said that sufficient data has been collected for policy revision. At the very least, it is difficult to imagine that the debate will pick up steam before the situation of the spring labor movement becomes clear, and I think the Bank of Japan meeting will be an event for the yen’s depreciation.

However, there is a need to be cautious about the USD/JPY level. Last year, on October 31st, the Bank of Japan effectively lifted the upper limit on long-term interest rates, but the day before that, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an observational article with the same content, and the US dollar/yen pair had fallen to 148.801. If the yen depreciates more unilaterally than the yen, it cannot be ruled out that it will lead to a debate over what the expectations for policy revisions in the past three months were. The Bank of Japan will maintain its position of not implementing monetary policy with specific exchange rates in mind, but there may be some mention of the yen’s depreciation. Furthermore, with regard to the US GDP, there is a renewed awareness that the economy is regaining its strength due to strong consumer spending, and the key point will be whether expectations for a March interest rate cut will recede. Basically, we are optimistic about the US dollar/yen pair, but we must remain cautious as speculation regarding monetary policy in Japan and the US is subject to change.

Pay attention to trends in USD/JPY, late 148 yen (chart analysis)

USD/JPY is in a state of three-way turnaround on the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, and a 150-yen try is starting to be considered. However, as explained in the previous section, there is likely to be a corresponding increase in high price alert at levels above 148.801 yen, so caution should be taken not to rush to grab high prices at this level. I am thinking of buying on the downside after the price reaches the Ichimoku’s upper limit (146.433 yen) or the conversion line (145.968 yen, at the time of writing).

[USD/JPY chart daily]

Source: Gaitame.com “Gaikan Next Neo”
Expected range: USD/JPY: 145.500-150.500

Events for the week of 1/22:

1/22 (Monday) 24:00 US December Economic Leading Indicator Composite Index
1/23 (Tue) – United States US Presidential Election, New Hampshire Primary (Common, Democratic)
1/23 (Tue) – Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, policy interest rate announcement after conclusion
1/23 (Tue) – Japan Bank of Japan Outlook Report
1/23 (Tue) 15:30 Japan Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, regular press conference
1/24 (Water) 8:50 Japan’s December Trade Statistics
1/24 (Wed) 23:45 US January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, preliminary figures)
1/24 (Wed) 23:45 US January Service Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, preliminary figures)
1/24 (Wed) 23:45 United States January Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, preliminary figures)
1/25 (Thu) 8:50 Japan Status of foreign and domestic securities sales contracts, etc.
1/25 (Thu) 22:30 United States October-December quarter real gross domestic product (GDP, preliminary figures)
1/25 (Thu) 22:30 US December durable goods orders
1/25 (Thursday) 22:30 Number of new unemployment insurance applications in the United States
1/25 (Thu) 24:00 US December new home sales
1/26 (gold) – Japan’s ordinary parliament, convening
1/26 (Friday) 8:30 Japan January Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI, excluding fresh food)
1/26 (Friday) 8:50 Japan December Corporate Service Price Index
1/26 (Friday) 8:50 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1/26(Gold) 22:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) in December

One word comment

It’s only January, but pollen is already flying around. I don’t have hay fever at the moment, but it can develop suddenly, so I spend the upcoming season nervously every year.

●Disclaimer
Although we take great care in preparing the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee its contents. Additionally, this service is intended to provide information that can be used as reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that Gaitame.com Co., Ltd. cannot be held responsible for any damage caused by viewing this service.

2024-01-20 01:00:00
#weeks #exchange #forecast #dollaryen #Aware #yen #rough #developments #depending #reaction #Bank #Japan #authorities #Harons #Gaitame.com #Money #Education #Channel

We have summarized the trade scenarios that individual FX investors should input in advance when day trading “Dollar/JPY”.

Written by: Sohei Uehara, Gaitame.com Research Institute
X(Twitter) :

table of contents

Today’s dollar yen trade scenario

Environmental awareness through technical analysis

① Daily scale: 200-day moving average line is supporting… Looking at the dollar/yen price through technical analysis, after breaking through the upward 200-day moving average the previous day, it strengthened its rebound and rebounded to the 144 yen level. Currently, the price is touching the 10-day line, and if it appears to break above it, there is a possibility that the price will move towards the 145.00 yen level, which is a 38.2% reversal of the decline from the November high to the December low. However, be careful as it is possible that the price will fall back to the same level due to upward resistance.

USD/JPY daily chart

Trading policy: Looking for a buying opportunity towards 145 yen

②Forecasting market developments…The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current monetary easing policy and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference were moderate, so it appears that speculation about lifting negative interest rates early has receded. With price movements becoming less likely to occur in the second half of December, it seems likely that yen selling will intensify with an upside potential of 145 yen.

③Trade timing…We are now looking for a buying opportunity as the price moves towards 145 yen. However, if the price falls below 144 yen, there is a possibility that the selling bias will become stronger, so in that case, we will have to wait and see. Also, the area around 145.00 yen is considered to be upward resistance, so be careful of a pullback from around the same level.

USD/JPY 60-minute neo chart (Figure 1)

USD/JPY Foreign exchange order information (Figure 2)

Featured economic indicators/events

④Point explanation…With the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain the current monetary easing policy, the yen is likely to weaken.

12/19 (Tue)
19:00 Eurozone November consumer price index, revised value
22:00 British Prime Minister Sunak testifying in Parliament
22:00 Lecture by BOE Vice President Breeden
22:30 Canadian November Consumer Price Index
22:30 U.S. housing starts in November
22:30 Number of construction permits in the US in November
23:30 Lecture by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Birkin
26:30 Lecture by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Bostic
30:00 US October Securities Investment

12/20 (water)
08:50 Japan November trade balance
*☆ is a particularly noteworthy material

“FX live streaming from 9pm”

Regarding the results of economic indicators and events

The latest information on the results of major economic indicators and important events can be found on the “Economic Indicators Calendar” on the Gaitame.com site.

economic indicators calendar

Researcher, Research Department, Gaitame.com Research Institute
Shuhei Uehara
International Federation of Technical Analysts Certified Technical Analyst (CFTe) Joined the financial industry in 2015 and worked in customer support. She also works as a financial seminar instructor. In February 2022, she joined Gaitame.com Research Institute, Inc. Utilizing her past experience and knowledge, she actively disseminates information to individual FX investors. He appears on “Stock Voice,” a broadcasting station specializing in economic programs, and on Nippon Broadcasting System, “Shinbo Jiro Zoom: Will he say that much?” ”, and has made many appearances. He is currently writing a series on the outlook for the dollar yen and euro yen in the money magazine Diamond ZAi.

●Disclaimer
Although we take great care in preparing the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee its contents. Furthermore, this service is intended to provide information that can be used as reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that Gaitame.com Co., Ltd. cannot be held responsible for any damage caused by viewing this service.

2023-12-19 08:51:02
#USDJPY #Todays #Outlook #recover #yen #level…Bank #Japan #decides #maintain #status #quo #monetary #easing #policy #Gaitame.com #Money #Education #Channel

Written by: Naoto Ono, Gaitame.com Research Institute

table of contents

Date of writing: 13:40 on September 8, 2023

Expectations to reach 150 yen increase; be wary of Stochastic sell signal

USD/JPY is unstable in the high range for the week of September 4th

The US dollar/yen pair rose to 147.869 yen as concerns about intervention and expectations for a weaker yen balanced against each other, but the pair failed to find any clues to break above 148 yen, and the pair generally oscillated around the 147 yen level. Ta. It has also been pointed out that during the appreciation phase, the yen is under downward pressure due to the depreciation of the Chinese yuan. (Each rate level is as of the time of writing)

FX live streaming, dollar yen, live intervention due to next sharp rise? (September 7, 2023)

*Market trends are also explained on a program broadcast by Gaitame.com Research Institute’s TEAM Harrons.

Will price indicators be a factor pushing up the US dollar?

The US dollar/yen pair continues to stall at just below 148 yen. The US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 13th, the US August Retail Sales and the US August Wholesale Price Index (PPI) on the 14th will break this trend, and the authorities’ efforts to keep the yen from depreciating will further heat up. It will be interesting to see whether it will push USD/JPY up to that level. Although the core CPI for August is expected to ease inflationary pressures compared to the previous year, the overall CPI is expected to accelerate compared to the previous year, and the outlook for the results is mixed. However, given the rise in energy prices and the rise in the price index of business confidence surveyed by ISM (Institute for Supply Management), it may be time to be wary of a resurgence of inflation rather than a slowdown.

In addition, there are concerns that rising procurement costs for companies that provide goods and services will push up PPI, which could lead to a resurgence of inflation and heightened concerns about US inflation. Currently, about 90% of the FOMC’s September FOMC forecast for a rate hike has been factored in, but if this percentage declines and expectations for a rate hike increase, the USD/JPY will break above 148 yen and reach a 150 yen try. There is a possibility that the market will be forced to intervene to buy the yen. However, it should be noted that there are factors smoldering that will suddenly heighten the risk-averse mood, such as the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China and concerns about slowing growth in China. Risk reversal, which is a useful reference for investigating the background of exchange rate fluctuations through market participants’ risk perception, shows that the previous period of warning against a weak yen has begun to come to an end, and it appears that we are entering a period of warning against a strong yen.

USD/JPY sell signal on slow traverse

The US dollar/yen pair continues to be firm, supported by the 21-day line, which is on an upward trend, and there is a possibility that the pair may break above 148,000 yen. If this level is exceeded, 149.695 yen (October 24, 2022), the highest return after the yen buying intervention on October 21st last year, and 150.000 yen, which is a psychological turning point, are likely to become the next cautionary levels. . However, in the stochastic with parameters (9, 3, 3), %D and Slow%D are suggesting selling, so there is concern that there will be a correction mood in the near term. If the price breaks below the daily Ichimoku conversion line of 146.157 yen (at the time of writing), there is a danger of aiming for the same standard line (144.692 yen: at the time of writing).

[USD/JPY chart daily]

Source: Gaitame.com “Gaikan Next Neo”
Expected range: USD/JPY: 144.500-149.500

Events for the week of 9/11:

9/13 (Wed) 8:50 Japan Quarterly Corporate Business Forecast Survey (BSI) for July-September period
9/13 (Wed) 8:50 Japan August Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index
9/13 (Water) 21:30 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August
9/14 (Thu) 8:50 Japan Machinery orders for July
9/14 (Thu) 8:50 Japan Status of foreign and domestic securities sales contracts, etc.
9/14 (Thu) 13:30 Japan July industrial production/confirmed figures
9/14 (Thu) 21:30 US August retail sales
9/14 (Thu) 21:30 US August Wholesale Price Index (PPI)
9/14 (Thu) 21:30 Number of new unemployment insurance applications in the United States
9/14 (Thu) 23:00 US July corporate inventory
9/15 (Friday) 13:30 Japan July Tertiary Industry Activity Index
9/15 (Friday) 21:30 US September New York Fed Manufacturing Industry Index
9/15 (Fri) 21:30 US August import price index
9/15 (Friday) 23:00 U.S. September University of Michigan Consumer Attitude Index, preliminary figures

short comment

Although China is trying to revive its economy through monetary easing, there are no signs of improvement. In the end, if demand does not increase even with monetary easing, growth will not accelerate. However, even if interest rates have fallen, I don’t think that easing will do anything since the supply of apartments is more than twice the total population of China.

●Disclaimer
Although we take great care in preparing the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee its contents. Additionally, this service is intended to provide information that can be used as reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that Gaitame.com Co., Ltd. cannot be held responsible for any damage caused by viewing this service.

2023-09-09 01:00:00
#weeks #exchange #forecast #USDJPY #Expectations #reach #yen #increase #wary #Stochastic #sell #signal #lighting #Harrons #Gaitame.com #Money #Education #Channel

Author: Naoto Ono, Gaitame.com Research Institute

table of contents

Date of writing: 14:40, September 1, 2023

Pointing to the next direction, the chart suggests a double top

US dollar/yen is unstable in the high range in the week of August 28

The US Jackson Hole conference passed without incident, and the US dollar/yen pair hit a new year high of 147.366 yen as the US interest rate trend continued to rise and the yen weakened. Since the US economic indicators announced after that were all disappointing results below the market expectations, the price was pushed back to 145.239 yen after the end of the upward cycle. (Each rate level is at the time of writing)

FX live distribution, dollar-yen adjustment station? Or will it hit new year-to-date highs? (August 31, 2023)

* Market trends are also explained in the program distributed by TEAM Harrons of Gaitame.com Research Institute.

US event won’t be decisive

Regarding the course of tightening in the US, although the market has largely priced in a skip in September, November and December are in flux, and the situation will depend on future economic indicators. The US dollar/yen pair has also returned to its recent highs following the “differences in direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States,” but it cannot be denied that there is a lack of material to test another upward trend. Will the ISM non-manufacturing index, which will be released on September 6th, serve as a cue for the US dollar/yen to rise as the current concerns recede, or will it weigh on the US dollar/yen due to concerns about the future of the US economy? It will be watched closely.

In addition, given the lack of economic data released, among the FOMC participants with voting rights this year, Philadelphia Fed President Harker and New York Fed President Williams, who are considered to be dovish, have expressed their views on the outlook for monetary policy. It seems that attention will be focused on whether it shows recognition. However, it is unlikely that this will be a decisive blow to explore the next direction, and the US dollar/yen pair’s direction may be difficult to determine due to factors such as China’s policy trends and the Japanese government’s stance to restrain the yen’s depreciation.

USD/JPY Triangle Consolidation to Double Top

Looking at the shape of the chart, we are starting to see a double top due to a break in the support line from a bullish triangle. Attention will be paid to whether it will stop at the 21-day moving average near 145.00 yen. If the price breaks below this level, the price will drop to around 143.000 yen. The upward horizontal line is likely to close at around 146.750 yen, and if this level is crossed, it would be a good idea to buy as a range break. However, since it is still wary of deception, full-fledged buying may start when the price exceeds the latest high of 147.366 yen.

[USD/JPY chart daily]

Source: Gaitame.com “Gaika Next Neo”
Expected range: USD/JPY: 142.500-147.500

Events for the week of September 4th:

9/5 (Tue) 8:30 Japan July All Households Family Income and Expenditure Survey/Consumption Expenditure
9/5 (Tue) 23:00 USA New orders for manufacturing in July
9/6 (Wednesday) 10:30 Japan Bank of Japan Councilor Takata remarks
9/6 (Wednesday) 21:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Collins speaks
9/6 (Wed) 22:45 U.S. Service Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised value) for August
9/6 (Wednesday) 22:45 United States August Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised value)
9/6 (Wednesday) 23:00 U.S.August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (General)
9/6 (Wed) 27:00 United States Federal Reserve Bank Economic Report (Beige Book)
9/6 (Wednesday) 28:00 United States Fed President Logan of Dallas, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 8:50 Japan Status of foreign and domestic securities trading contracts, etc.
9/7 (Thursday) 10:30 Japan Mr. Nakagawa, Councilor, Bank of Japan, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 21:30 U.S. April-June Quarterly Non-Farm Labor Productivity Revised
9/7 (Thursday) 21:30 U.S. Number of New Unemployment Claims
9/7 (Thursday) 23:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker speaks
9/7 (Thursday) 27:30 US New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 27:45 US Bostic US Atlanta Fed, remarks
9/8 (Friday) 8:30 Japan July Monthly Labor Survey – Total Cash Earnings
9/8 (Friday) 8:50 Japan April-June Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, revised value)
9/8 (Fri) 23:00 U.S. July wholesale sales

short comment

The Basketball World Cup is in full swing. I don’t know much about basketball, but excitement is important. By the way, when it comes to basketball manga, there are probably many people who have a strong image of “S*muda*k.” I am also one of them. When I was a student, I used to read magazines with my acquaintances every week. That’s nostalgic.

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Although we pay close attention to the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee the content. In addition, this service is provided for the purpose of providing information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding your investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that Gaitame.com Co., Ltd. is not responsible for any damage caused by viewing this service.

2023-09-02 01:00:00
#weeks #exchange #rate #forecast #dollar #yen #point #direction #chart #suggests #double #top #Harrons #Gaitame.com #Money #Education #Channel

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Although we pay close attention to the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee the content. In addition, this service is provided for the purpose of providing information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding your investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that we are not responsible for any damage caused by viewing this service.

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A team belonging to the former dealer strategist analyst of the former Ueda Harlow, who was famous for the round table. Wrote “3 minutes technical analysis” (video), weekly exchange report “Harons”, US employment statistics report “U.S. employment statistics forecasts and strategies”, etc. Twitter account TEAM Harrons(＠TeamHallons)So, I’m muttering market miscellaneous impressions and economic index headlines. From 21:00 on weekdays, I will also be in charge of the LIVE program[Practical Real Trade]where I will provide useful information for trading for individual FX investors, such as explaining technical analysis and showing trades using real accounts. are delivering.

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Although we pay close attention to the information posted on this site, we do not guarantee the content. In addition, this service is provided for the purpose of providing information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not provided for the purpose of soliciting investment. Please make your own final decisions regarding your investment policy, timing, etc. Please note that Gaitame.com Co., Ltd. is not responsible for any damages caused by viewing this service.

2023-07-03 14:12:12
#live #distribution #groping #dark #Test #market #dollar #yen #intervention #warning #July #2023Gaitame #Dotcom #Money #Education #Channel