Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions Face Uncertainty After Recent Strikes

Following recent attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, the fate of the country’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) hangs in the balance. The US and Israel’s strikes have raised critical questions about the location and security of this sensitive material, and their impact on Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

The Hunt for Enriched Uranium

The US claims to have “obliterated” several Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow, a facility built deep inside a mountain. According to the US, this was to impede Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran, meanwhile, has not confirmed any damage to the nuclear sites.

The central concern is the whereabouts of Iran’s HEU. According to experts, Iran has just over 400 kilograms of uranium refined to around 60 percent, which is close to weapons grade.

“I think the safest way of describing it is that Iran knows where it is, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the public doesn’t, and if the [Americans/Israelis] do, they’re not telling.”

—Richard Nephew, Former Iran Director, National Security Council

Intelligence analysts and nuclear experts are now assessing the extent of the damage, given the June 22 bombing runs and the nine days of Israeli strikes that preceded it. The US President Donald Trump stated the site was “obliterated” and that the enriched material was likely trapped.

Conflicting Assessments and Key Questions

A preliminary assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) suggested that an unknown quantity of HEU was removed from Fordow before the bombing. However, the CIA’s assessment appears to contradict this, asserting that Iran’s nuclear program suffered severe damage.

Iran is estimated to possess about 8,400 kilograms of enriched uranium in total, with the majority enriched to low levels. However, the IAEA reports that around 408 kilograms are highly enriched, posing a significant proliferation risk.

With Iran having 408 kilograms of HEU, which is enough to make a few nuclear weapons, and its continued advancement in enrichment capabilities, the situation is a source of deep concern. (Source: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2024).

The Role of Centrifuges

Centrifuges are fundamental to enriching uranium, and Iran reportedly had approximately 20,000 installed at Fordow and Natanz. The US and Israeli officials suggest that much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity has been severely damaged.

According to the Institute for Science and International Security, “the attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program.” They added it will be a long time before Iran comes close to the pre-attack capabilities.

Uncertainty and Future Prospects

The question remains: how much HEU was moved, and where is it now? Furthermore, how quickly could Iran potentially weaponize its HEU using backup centrifuges?

One expert, Jeffery Lewis, stated, “No one knows where the HEU is now” in a post on X. Another expert, Decker Eveleth, at the Center for Naval Analyses, highlighted that the situation poses a “major problem,” making it difficult for Iran to evade detection.

As the investigation continues, the full impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear. The location of the HEU and the state of Iran’s centrifuge capabilities will determine the future trajectory of its nuclear ambitions.