This situation caused large floods, for example in 1997 and 2002, but also for the last time in 2024. Fortunately, the similarity of the current situation with previous floods ends.
The most important difference should be the total total of precipitation. While in 2024 it fell on the ridges of the Jeseníky Mountains up to 500 millimeters, this year so high rainfall is not expected. The forecast models do not exceed 200 millimeters, some of which simulate less than 100. CHMI assumes the highest total in the Beskydy Mountains, up to 180 mm.
How much water eventually depends on how it will be below, which has already been named Gabriel, to behave over Poland.
In addition, there is much less saturated soil in the affected area than it was in September 2024. The current drought can be beneficial this time, because the first 50 to 100 millimeters of precipitation is soaked into the soil or absorbed by grown vegetation.
❗️Aveled the current data on the significant rainfall situation tomorrow and the day after tomorrow in Silesia and East Moravia. We will also indicate differences from floods in September 2024. More below.
💦actual models continue to trend significant precipitation during tomorrow and Wednesday, especially in… pic.twitter.com/GxE0GdvHGk
– Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) (@chmuchmi) July 7, 2025
Finally, the most affected area will be different. This year, the most precipitation should fall on the Beskydy Hospital. During last year’s floods it rained most in Jeseníky. Here too, however, the locals should be wary, as the latest model outputs indicate rainfall over 100 millimeters.
The frequency of extreme precipitation increases
Thus, although the current situation will not be as dangerous as in the floods in 2024, problems may still occur. It is therefore necessary to monitor the current messages and warnings of meteorologists. At the same time, as the pressure lower above Poland will be reversed, there are other collisions until the end of the week, although they should no longer be as abundant as on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Climate models predict that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase when the average global temperature increases.
What do data say?
☔Datata gives the models right. Separate rainfall (eg 99. Percentile) significantly amplify in many regions.
📈Dopady climate change are measurable today. pic.twitter.com/LfqIQPPIlD– Factsoclimatu.cz (@faktaoklimatu) July 8, 2025
Unfortunately, similar rainfall episodes have been increasing as a result of climate change in recent years and most likely their frequency will continue to increase. The high temperature of the seas and atmosphere that can accommodate more water vapor is the main factors of changes.
Hydrometeorological extremes are becoming more common. While there was an extreme drought in most of the Czech Republic at the weekend, there is now a flood in its eastern part. In the West, on the other hand, the rainfall deficit will continue, because unlike the eastern part there will be only a negligible amount of precipitation.