A Budding Alliance? South Korean President’s Rapport with Trump and Lingering Security Concerns
The recent summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Yoon Suk yeol appears too have fostered a strong personal connection, but questions remain regarding the long-term implications for the U.S.-South Korea alliance, notably concerning defense costs and troop presence.
The meeting saw a visible warmth between the two leaders, with President Trump reportedly charmed by his South Korean counterpart.However, this positive atmosphere hasn’t entirely alleviated South Korean anxieties surrounding defense and military cooperation.A recurring point of contention has been the cost-sharing for the 28,500 U.S.troops stationed in South Korea. President Trump has previously advocated for Seoul to contribute $10 billion annually, a notable increase from the current agreement.While South Korean officials stated the issue wasn’t discussed during the summit, analysts believe it’s likely to resurface.
Concerns are also fueled by past grievances expressed by Trump regarding the expense of maintaining a U.S. military presence in South Korea, raising fears of potential troop withdrawals. Reports earlier this year indicated a review of plans to relocate thousands of personnel to other locations in the Indo-Pacific, such as Guam, potentially leaving South Korea more vulnerable to North Korean military threats.
Despite historical opposition to troop reductions, President Yoon’s recent pledge to increase South Korea’s own defense spending suggests a potential shift in perspective. Lee Ho-ryung, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), noted that the two sides might potentially be aligning on these issues, though further discussion at a working level is necessary.
During a press conference, President Trump, when asked about reducing troop numbers, deflected, stating, “I don’t want to say that now as we’ve been friends.” he then proposed a novel idea – seeking ownership of the land currently leased for U.S. military bases in South Korea,aiming to eliminate lease payments. This suggestion, under the existing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) which grants the U.S. rent-free land use, was swiftly dismissed by South Korean Defense Minister Ahn gyu-back, who suggested it may have been a strategic negotiating tactic.
Looking ahead,a second round of negotiations with North Korean leader kim Jong-un woudl be viewed as a success for both Trump and Yoon. However, experts believe the opportunity for North Korea to denuclearize in exchange for sanctions relief – the basis of previous talks in 2018 and 2019 – may have passed. North Korea has recently rejected calls to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
Ultimately, while the personal rapport between President Yoon and President Trump could prove beneficial, Lee of KIDA emphasizes that North Korea’s ability to circumvent sanctions through support from Russia and China diminishes the effectiveness of sanctions relief as a negotiating tool.