Will Nifty Finally Cross 26,277? 6 Triggers That Could Break the 421-Day Deadlock
The Indian equity market is poised at a critical juncture, attempting to overcome a 421-day deadlock and possibly surpass the 26,277 mark. Several factors are currently influencing market direction, offering both opportunities and challenges for investors. Here’s a breakdown of six key triggers to watch this week:
1) Global Cues & US Market Performance
global market sentiment remains a notable driver. Recent data indicates a mixed performance,with US markets showing volatility. The upcoming week’s economic data releases from the US will be crucial in determining investor confidence.
2) Corporate Buybacks
Reliance Industries’ Rs 18,000 crore share buyback program is nearing its conclusion, with the window closing on Wednesday, November 26. This significant buyback has provided support to the market, and its completion will remove that tailwind.
3) FII/DII Activity
foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) shifted to net sellers last week, offloading Indian equities worth Rs 188 crore. Specifically,they sold shares worth Rs 1,766.05 crore on Friday alone. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) demonstrated buying activity, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,161.61 crore. Recent data shows FII selling has moderated to Rs 3,788 crore in November so far, with 2025 outflows totaling Rs 1.43 lakh crore, suggesting a potential reversal in trend.
4) Technical Analysis
According to Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Equity Research at Centrum Broking, the Nifty index is forming higher tops and higher bottoms and is attempting to break past its immediate resistance at 26,200, but is facing profit booking at higher levels. Momentum indicators and oscillators are currently in buy mode on both daily and weekly charts.Jain anticipates a consolidation phase within a range of 25,800-26,200,with the 21-DMA near 25,840 acting as key support. A breakout above the recent swing high could propel the Nifty to fresh record levels around 26,300. However, Jain cautioned that the volatility index jumping over 10% and crossing 13 is a concern, stating it “needs to cool below 12.5 for bulls to regain firm control.”
5) Rupee-Dollar Dynamics
The Indian rupee’s weakness continues to exert pressure on domestic equity markets. On Friday, the INR reached a lifetime low of 89.65 against the US dollar before closing at 89.61,influenced by US sanctions on certain Indian firms linked to the Iran oil trade. The near-term outlook remains challenging due to a strengthening US dollar, with the DXY climbing back above 100, gaining 0.9% over the past five sessions and 2.5% over three months.Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global Research, expects the rupee to test the 90 level against the dollar, and anticipates the DXY could rise to 102-103. The rupee is currently down 4.6% against the greenback this year.
6) IPO Market
two IPOs are scheduled to list this week: Sudeep Pharma (listing on November 28) and Excelsoft Technologies (listing on November 26). The market will closely monitor these debuts, following the strong performance of recent listings like Billionbrains Garage Ventures (Groww), Pine Labs, and PhysicsWallah. Additionally,three SME issues will open for subscription: SSMD Agrotech India (opening November 25,raising Rs 34.09 crore), Mother Nutri Foods IPO (launching November 26, raising Rs 39.59 crore), and KK Silk Mills (price band set at Rs 36-38 per share).
Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are thier own. These do not represent the views of The economic Times.