What factors are currently influencing gold prices?

Gold prices are being influenced by progress in international trade and diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. Positive developments in these areas may lead to a decrease in gold prices, while increased risk or weak U.S. economic data could support a price recovery.

how might US-China trade negotiations affect gold demand?

If the United States and China successfully negotiate a trade agreement, it could reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

What is the potential impact of interest rate policies on gold prices?

Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 could provide support for gold prices, as lower interest rates typically make gold more attractive to investors.

What key economic data should investors monitor to gauge gold's performance?

Investors should closely monitor the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll numbers and unemployment rate. Weaker-than-expected employment data could bolster gold prices.

What is GCAP Gold's recommended investment strategy for gold?

GCAP Gold suggests a buying strategy at Gold Spot prices of $3,220 / $3,200, viewing the current trend as a short-term adjustment.They identify key support and resistance levels to watch.

What are the key support and resistance levels for gold prices according to GCAP Gold?

GCAP gold identifies an important support frame at $3,220 / $3,200 and the first resistance at $3,330 - $3,350. A break above $3,368-$3,375 could signal a short-term trend reversal.

Thai Economy Grapples With Unexpected Deflation

Falling energy prices contribute to continued economic concerns.

Thailand is experiencing its third consecutive month of deflation, sparking worries about consumer demand and economic stagnation. The latest figures reveal a concerning trend that challenges earlier projections for economic growth.

Deeper Dive Into Deflationary Factors

June 2025 saw a 0.3% decrease in inflation compared to the previous year, a figure lower than anticipated, even below the 0.1% drop predicted by Bloomberg. Falling energy costs, particularly fuel (gasoline down 18% year-on-year) and electricity (3.98 baht/unit versus 4.18 baht last year), are primary drivers.

The prices of fresh food, including chicken eggs, vegetables, and fruit, have also declined. Conversely, pork and processed foods have seen price increases. This mixed picture underscores the complexities of the current economic climate.

Economic data chart

Consumption and Crude Oil Impact

Analysis indicates a correlation between weak private consumption and low prices, signaling decreased consumer spending. Crude oil prices also strongly influence Thailand’s overall inflation, given energy’s 13% weighting in the national inflation basket.

Given the continued weakness in private consumption projected for the latter half of 2025, coupled with current Brent crude oil price trends, projections remain conservative. The World Bank, for example, recently lowered its 2025 growth forecast for Thailand to 2.8% due to similar concerns about weak external demand and slow tourism recovery (World Bank).

Interest Rate Forecast

The expectation is that Thailand’s inflation rate for 2025 will remain at 0.00% year-on-year. It’s also anticipated that the Bank of Thailand will maintain its policy interest rate (1-day repo) at 1.00% through 2026.

Challenges Ahead

Competition from Chinese products, populist policy measures, global crude oil price trends, and the high economic base of 2024 are expected to restrain Thai inflation throughout 2025.

For comprehensive details, refer to the full report: https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file

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Gold Prices Face Pressure amid Easing Middle East Tensions, GCAP Gold Analysis Shows

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Gold Prices Face Pressure amid Easing Middle East Tensions, GCAP Gold Analysis Shows

Bangkok, Thailand – Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure due to a combination of factors, including easing tensions in the Middle East and potentially softening U.S. economic data, according to a recent analysis by G. Cap Company Limited (GCAP Gold). The firm suggests a buying strategy at Gold Spot prices of $3,220 / $3,200, citing key support and resistance levels to monitor.

Middle East developments Impacting Gold Market

According to Miss Areerat Murachai, Head of Analyst at GCAP Gold, progress in international trade and diplomatic efforts in the Middle East is a primary variable influencing gold prices.If the geopolitical situation continues to improve,gold prices may experience continued selling pressure. Conversely, any events that heighten risk or indications of a slowing U.S. economy could bolster gold’s price ^[1].

Did You Know? Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical instability, with investors flocking to it as a store of value.

US-china Trade Negotiations and Gold Demand

Hopes for a new trade agreement between the United States and China before the July 9th deadline are also weighing on gold demand. Successful negotiations could reduce the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, as improved trade relations typically boost global economic confidence.The Peterson Institute for International economics offers ongoing analysis of US-China trade dynamics ^[2].

Interest Rate Trends and Gold’s Appeal

While recent Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data exceeded expectations, signals from Federal Reserve officials, such as Neil Kashkari, suggest the possibility of two interest rate cuts in 2025. This prospect is fueling market speculation about future monetary policy, which could provide support for gold prices. Lower interest rates generally make gold more attractive to investors becuase it reduces the chance cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

Investors should closely monitor upcoming U.S.labor market data, particularly the Nonfarm Payroll numbers, scheduled for release on Thursday. Expectations are for a decrease from 139,000 to 120,000. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. Weaker-than-expected employment figures could provide a boost to gold prices.

GCAP Gold’s Investment Strategy

Based on these factors, GCAP Gold’s research department recommends a buying strategy at Gold Spot prices of $3,220 / $3,200. This level is seen as an critically important support frame (approximately 50,000-49,700 baht in Thai gold price). The first resistance level is identified at $3,330 – $3,350 (around 51,000-51,300 baht). A break above $3,368-$3,375 (approximately 52,000 baht) could signal a short-term trend reversal to the upside.

Pro Tip: Always conduct thorough research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Key Gold Price Levels

Level	USD	Thai Baht (Approx.)
Support	$3,220 / $3,200	50,000-49,700
Resistance 1	$3,330 – $3,350	51,000-51,300
Resistance 2	$3,368- $3,375	52,000

Will gold prices rebound despite easing geopolitical tensions? How will upcoming economic data influence your investment strategy?

Gold as a Safe Haven Asset: A Past Perspective

Gold has long been considered a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability.Throughout history, investors have turned to gold as a store of value when othre assets, such as stocks or bonds, become more volatile. this is as gold is a tangible asset with a limited supply, and its value is not directly tied to the performance of any particular company or government. The World Gold Council provides extensive data and analysis on gold’s historical performance and its role in investment portfolios ^[3].

Frequently Asked Questions About gold Investing

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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