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A preliminary survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday (11th) showed that long-term inflation expectations in November rose to a new high since 2011, while consumers are increasingly worried about high borrowing costs and the economic outlook. The initial value of the consumer confidence index was higher than 10 The month-end value fell significantly.

Specifically, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index in November was 60.4, far lower than the 63.7 expected by economists, and far less than the final value of 63.8 in October, a new low in six months.

The initial value of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for November was lower than expected. (Photo: ZerHedge)

In addition, the initial value of the current situation index in November fell to 65.7, far lower than the expected 69.5, and lower than the final value of 70.6 in October, setting a new low in six months; the expectations index in November plummeted from the final value of 59.3 in October to 56.9, a low Compared to the expected 59.5, it also hit a five-month low this year.

As for the high-profile inflation expectations, the survey showed that consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.4% from the final October reading of 4.2%, higher than the 4.0% expected by economists; five- to ten-year inflation expectations It rose to 3.2%, a new high since 2011, higher than the expected 3% and higher than the final October value of 3%.

Inflation expectations for 5-10 years rose to 3.2%, a new high in 12 years.

The report shows that consumers’ expectations for short-term and long-term gasoline prices have risen to their highest levels this year, which is inconsistent with the current trend of oil prices at U.S. gas stations.West Texas crude oil andBrent crude oilPrices hit a new low in more than three months this week, erasing all gains since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Nearly one-fifth of consumers surveyed said unemployment will cause more hardship than inflation in the coming year. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released last week showed that hiring was concentrated in only a few industries, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level since early 2022.

Although respondents were slightly more optimistic about their financial situation, their assessment of purchasing conditions and expectations for the economic outlook worsened, with the monthly increase in assessments of durable goods purchasing conditions falling sharply, the largest drop since November last year.

A record 36% of consumers spontaneously attributed poor car purchasing conditions to high borrowing costs or tight credit conditions; the share of consumers blaming similar factors for poor housing and durable goods purchasing conditions reached the highest level since 1982 level.

Joanne Hsu, director of the Consumer Confidence Index Survey at the University of Michigan, said that the combination of expectations of continued high prices, high borrowing costs and a weak labor market does not bode well for U.S. consumer spending and economic prospects, and it may be difficult to sustain strong performance.

Consumer concerns about high prices for durable goods, cars and homes peaked in the middle of last year and have declined steadily since then, but those sentiment improvements have all stalled this year and consumers’ concerns about prices remain very evident.

Some analysts pointed out that rising consumer inflation expectations and concerns about the durability of consumer spending highlight the difficult challenges faced by policymakers at the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

2023-11-10 17:28:01
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