Everything counted in Dresden
CDU becomes strongest force in Saxony ahead of AfD

02.09.2024, 00:36

After all votes in Saxony have been counted, it is clear that the CDU will be the strongest party in the state elections with 31.9 percent. After all constituencies have been counted, it is ahead of the AfD, which received 30.6 percent of the vote. This is a success for Prime Minister Kretschmer after hours of uncertainty.

A narrow victory after a long struggle: The CDU has won the state election in Saxony – ahead of the second-placed AfD. After all the votes have been counted, the AfD has gained significantly compared to the 2019 election, but cannot overtake the slightly losing Union.

Forming a government could still be difficult, because none of the other parties want to work with the AfD. And according to ARD and ZDF projections on the distribution of seats, there is not enough for a new edition of Kretschmer’s current coalition of CDU, Greens and SPD. The state election officer did not initially publish any information on the distribution of seats. The new alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) came in third place, followed by the SPD at some distance. The Greens just made it into parliament. The Left Party is below the five percent hurdle. However, it won two direct mandates in Leipzig, so it will still be represented in the state parliament in accordance with its second vote result.

BSW immediately double-digit

As the state electoral commission announced on its website after counting all constituencies, the CDU received 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The AfD is just behind with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW achieved 11.8 percent straight away. The SPD landed at 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left Party slipped dramatically to 4.5 percent (10.4). The Greens received 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP once again failed to enter the state parliament – as it did in the last two state elections.

The AfD, which the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as definitely right-wing extremist, will receive 41 seats in the state parliament (38), the CDU 42 seats (45). The BSW has 15 representatives. The SPD will receive 9 seats (10), the Greens will have 6 seats (12), as will Die Linke (14). The Free Voters, who received 2.3 percent, are represented in parliament by one representative who won a direct mandate. Around 3.3 million citizens were called to vote. Voter turnout was 74.4 percent – higher than ever before in a state election in the Free State.

Kretschmer expects difficult formation of government

Prime Minister Kretschmer believes his party is capable of continuing to form the government in the state. “It won’t be easy,” he said at the CDU’s election party. “But one thing is certain: with a lot of discussions and the will to do something for this state, we can use this election result to give Saxony a stable government that serves the state and moves forward with humility.” The CDU is ready to continue to take on responsibility for this state.

Since reunification, the CDU has always provided the head of government in Saxony – most recently Kretschmer has governed in a coalition with the Greens and SPD since 2019. According to projections, this is not enough to continue the alliance. Mathematically, it would be possible for the CDU to be supported by the BSW and the SPD. But: BSW boss Wagenknecht was also once a member of the SED and was later considered an icon of the communist platform in the Left – which gives many CDU politicians a headache. A coalition would still be possible, because according to an incompatibility resolution by the CDU, the party is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left – but there is no decision on the BSW, which split from the Left.