Europe Braces for Potential Conflict as Russian Threat Intensifies
recent statements from European military and political leaders signal a growing apprehension regarding potential conflict with Russia, despite ongoing debate over the future of Ukraine.
A shift in rhetoric is underway across Europe,with officials increasingly framing Russia as a direct and imminent threat. General Carsten Breuer, Chief of the German armed forces, has explicitly described Russia as “an imminent threat.” This sentiment echoes comments made earlier this year by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who stated his contry was entering a “pre-war phase.”
Concerns have been heightened by recent incidents,including the sabotage of a Polish railway line earlier this month. General Wieslaw Kukula, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, responded by asserting that “the adversary has begun preparations for war,” and is actively working to destabilize the region by undermining public trust in government and key institutions.
The increasingly stark language reflects a essential shift in how Europe is discussing its security future. French Army Chief General Fabien Mandon sparked controversy this week by emphasizing the need for France to be prepared for significant sacrifice, stating the nation must be ready to “lose its children” in a potential war with Russia. He argued that while France possesses the necessary capabilities to deter Moscow, it lacks the necessary resolve, stating, “What we are lacking… is the spirit. The spirit which accepts that we will have to suffer if we are to protect what we are.”
This heightened state of alert is fueled by a recognition that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to accept any scenario involving a sustained foreign military presence in ukraine – a key concern that initially motivated his actions. Furthermore, Ukraine and much of Europe are unlikely to believe that ceding territory, even land currently occupied by Russia, would guarantee an end to Russian aggression, particularly regarding territories Putin is currently demanding but does not control.
This complex reality presents a significant challenge to calls for a swift end to the conflict, such as those recently made by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Laura Tingle is the ABC’s Global Affairs Editor.
