Erdogan

• 2009: “2011, God willing, will be my last parliamentary candidacy.”
• 2012: “I am running for president for the last time in the Grand National Assembly.”
• 2022-2023: “In 2023 we ask the nation to vote for us for the last time.”
• 2024: “This election is my last.”

Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Friday the president – definition of a “political animal” and a measure of tactics, who not only survives politically, but has managed to completely dominate the Turkish political scene for a number of years, following the constant tactic of resounding public political “farewells”, which he has adopted very successfully already in 2009, he threw his new “paper”, looking towards the next crucial self-governing elections, on March 31.

A big bet for him personally, mainly regarding Istanbul (although the recovery of the three major urban metropolises and “strongholds” of the opposition, Polis, Ankara and Izmir, will symbolize the absolute pan-empire of the AKP Justice and Development Party and of the same, from May 1).

This time, as if he is contesting again as a candidate – after all, the pre-election campaign of the AKP mayoral candidates is monopolized, just like in 2019, by Erdogan himself, in political gatherings far below his expectations -, the Turkish president asked strong “mandate” in favor of the AKP, announcing his withdrawal from politics.

“The result (of the election) will be the transfer of a trust for my brothers, who will come after me,” he said, citing Turkish legislation, on Friday, at the meeting he had with representatives of the Turkish Youth Foundation – TÜGVA (to (note, a member of his highest advisory council is his son, Bilal Erdogan).

The result that will emerge from the self-governing elections at the end of the month “will be the transfer of a trust for those who will follow”, added the Turkish president emphatically.

Is Erdogan laying down his arms?

Immediately, Turkish social media caught fire. Technically, his statement, as widely commented, is correct. According to the Turkish Constitution, Erdogan cannot run for office in 2028, as the limit is two (five-year) terms. But why did he refer to his “last” election, even though he himself is not a candidate in the self-governing elections of March 31 and while there are still four years left in his presidential term?

What applies; Is honest; Is he tired and laying down his arms, of the now proven hard-nosed political fighters? Is he, therefore, announcing something that he will abide by and not run for office again, after his presidency ends in 2028, when he will -God willing!- be 74 years old? So is he withdrawing for good, otherwise, as noted by Turkish publications, is he resigning?

Or is he bluffing, as he has done – at least – three times in the past, in order to rally the voters around the AKP party, in the ambiguous upcoming elections, which all indicate that they will develop into a thriller and an informal referendum, at least in the three big municipalities, “strongholds” of the Kemalists and “thorns” in his empire? However, there are leaks that want to change the Constitution, after the self-governing elections, by holding a referendum beforehand.

“What the future will bring is unknown”

Analysts highlight the “loophole” given to him by the Turkish Constitution in Article 116/3, according to which if the Parliament decides to call an election during the second term of a president, he can run again.

There are indications in this direction. The constitutional legalization of early elections was also “pushed” by the former Minister of Justice and current AKP MP, Bekir Bozda, rushing, in the wake of the Turkish president’s statements, to point out with a post on his social media account, the possibility of Erdogan to be a candidate for a third time.

“According to this provision of the Constitution, if the Grand National Assembly of Turkey decides to renew the elections, it is the constitutional right of our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to run for President for the third time. What the future will bring is unknown. Perhaps, when the time comes, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey will decide on the renewal of the elections and give our President the right to run again,” he said, causing various reactions.

“The number of votes he gets will determine how he continues”

“Erdogan can make a U-turn on any issue and deny today what he said yesterday”, commented Mpahadir Ozkur in the Turkish newspaper Duvar, trying to answer the question “Will Erdogan resign?”. Focusing his analysis on the March 31 elections, he characterizes them as a “turning point”, on which “the eyes of the entire Islamic world” are focused.

Since, Özkur concludes, the Turkish president is treating the municipal elections, and especially the Istanbul showdown, “as a kind of referendum. The number of votes he receives will determine how he continues.” Not only candidates are voted on the ballot, adds the Turkish analyst, but also the “Islamic mandate” of the AKP, which will be ratified.

“I don’t think his intention is not to participate in another election”

“Erdogan is just starting his election campaign. Polls show that in the big metropolitan cities (Poli, Ankara, Izmir) the AKP will probably lose. Most likely, he is trying to rally and sympathize with his supporters. I don’t think his intention is not to take part in other elections, because of the obstacle that the relevant law puts on him”, the Turkish political scientist at the Turkish Think Tank Reform Enstitusu, Mehmet Ali Jalışkan, who also leads opinion polls, points out to BIMA.

“He has also declared in previous elections that they will be his last. Perhaps he is trying to touch the loyalty of his voters, while wondering about the possibility of a referendum on the Constitution, in order to make his re-candidacy possible”, Ali Tirali, the head of the new Turkish Think Tank Ideapolitik Institut, notes to BIMA.

“It’s definitely not something we should believe”, is the first reaction of the former co-chairman of the pro-Kurdish party HDP (now the Green Left Party YSP, informally known as the People’s Equality and Democracy Party DEM), Sezai Temeli, to a related question put to him the newspaper. “It is one of the methods he uses before every election. Why does he tell us this, invoking the law? Because if the laws change, which needs a constitutional amendment, then it will be able to continue. This is the meaning of his statements. The true text, his message, behind his proclamations is: “If you want me to stay, give me strong support to change the constitution and continue on my way.”

“I followed the statements of the Turkish president. There are two scenarios,” Turkish journalist Erkin Encan tells us at the Chinese media giant CGTN. “Either he’s preparing his voters to actually retire, because he’s tired. Either he is playing the same game again as before. If he bluffs again what he is aiming for is for party officials to beg him not to abandon them because they need him. Possibly, we are facing yet another constitutional change so that he can run in the next presidential round. His true intentions remain to be seen.”