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EconomicIndicator

US Dollar finds support ahead of consumer confidence data

by Priya Shah – Business Editor September 12, 2025

written by Priya Shah – Business Editor

US Dollar Gains Ground as Traders Await Key ⁤Consumer Confidence Report

New York – The US Dollar is finding support in early⁣ trading Tuesday as investors cautiously await the release of the latest ‌consumer confidence data, a key indicator of economic health. ‍The dollar index, ‌which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged higher amid a generally risk-off sentiment.

The upcoming consumer confidence ⁤report is especially notable as ‍the Federal Reserve continues to assess‌ the ⁤strength of the US⁣ economy and calibrate its monetary policy.Strong consumer confidence could ‌signal continued economic resilience, potentially bolstering the case for the Fed to maintain its current interest rate trajectory or⁣ even consider further tightening. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading could ‌raise‌ concerns about a⁤ potential economic slowdown, prompting speculation about future rate cuts. This ‍data impacts not only currency ‍valuations but also broader market sentiment, influencing investment decisions across asset ⁢classes.

The European Central Bank (ECB), headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, serves ‍as the reserve bank for the Eurozone, setting interest rates and managing monetary policy for the region. Its ⁢primary mandate is maintaining price stability, targeting an inflation rate of around 2%. The ECB utilizes interest rate adjustments as ‌its⁢ main tool, with higher rates generally strengthening the Euro and lower rates weakening it. the ECB Governing Council convenes eight times annually, comprising heads of Eurozone national ‍banks and six permanent members,⁤ including President Christine Lagarde, to make monetary policy decisions.

In times of economic ⁢stress, the ECB can employ Quantitative Easing (QE), involving the⁣ printing of Euros to purchase assets like government and corporate bonds from financial institutions. ‌QE typically⁢ leads to‍ a weaker euro.The ECB has previously utilized QE‌ during the Great Financial Crisis (2009-11), periods of ⁢low inflation (2015), and the‍ COVID-19 pandemic.

Conversely, Quantitative Tightening (QT) represents the ‌reversal of QE, implemented during economic recovery and rising inflation. Under QT, the ECB ceases bond purchases ‍and stops reinvesting principal from maturing bonds, generally providing support – or‌ a⁤ bullish⁢ outlook – for the Euro.

September 12, 2025 0 comments

Business

US Dollar retreats as focus shifts to inflation data, US-China trade talks

by Priya Shah – Business Editor August 11, 2025

written by Priya Shah – Business Editor

Dollar Dips as Trade Talks Loom; AUD, NZD Face Policy Decisions

Market Watchers Eye US Inflation Data Amidst Trade Uncertainty

The U.S. Dollar saw a modest decline against major currency rivals early Monday, as investors brace for crucial U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Tuesday. All eyes remain on U.S.-China trade discussions ahead of a significant August 12th deadline for a potential agreement.

Dollar Index Weakens, Trump Hopes for China’s Soybean Orders

The Dollar Index is trending lower, approaching the 98.00 mark after experiencing a roughly 0.4% loss last week. President Donald Trump expressed hope on Truth Social that China would significantly increase its soybean purchases from the U.S., aiming to narrow Beijing’s trade deficit. U.S. stock index futures showed a slight uptick, trading between 0.1% and 0.2% higher. This meeting of economic minds coincides with an upcoming discussion on the Ukraine war between President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

AUD/USD Navigates Range Ahead of RBA Decision

The AUD/USD pair is trading within a tight range above the 0.6500 level, having closed the previous week on a positive note. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decisions during the Asian session on Tuesday. Expectations are high that the RBA will implement a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 3.6% following its August meeting. For context, the Bank of England recently raised its base rate to 5.25% in an effort to combat inflation, highlighting diverging monetary policy paths globally (Bank of England, 2023).

NZD/USD Under Pressure as Tariffs Remain

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon indicated early Monday that the U.S. is unlikely to offer any concessions regarding the 15% tariffs imposed on NZ exports. Consequently, the NZD/USD pair is experiencing mild downward pressure, trading slightly below the 0.5950 mark.

Gold Retreats After Failed Bullish Momentum

Gold prices, which climbed above $3,400 on Friday, have failed to maintain their upward momentum. After a week of gains totaling approximately 1%, the precious metal is on the defensive, trading near $3,360 and registering a daily loss exceeding 1%.

EUR/USD Hovers as German and Eurozone Data Approaches

The EUR/USD currency pair is fluctuating within a confined range around 1.1650 during Monday’s European trading session. Key economic indicators for Germany and the Eurozone, including the August ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment data, are set to be released on Tuesday.

GBP/USD Holds Steady After BoE’s Hawkish Stance

The GBP/USD pair demonstrated resilience early Monday, trading above the 1.3450 level. This strength follows a more than 1% rise last week, buoyed by the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish decision on interest rates.

USD/JPY Lacks Direction Amidst Market Indecision

The USD/JPY pair is struggling to establish a clear direction on Monday, trading within a narrow band just above 147.50.

US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.56%	-1.30%	0.21%	-0.10%	-0.60%	-0.55%	0.23%
EUR	0.56%		-0.70%	0.79%	0.47%	-0.17%	0.00%	0.78%
GBP	1.30%	0.70%		1.53%	1.17%	0.53%	0.71%	1.50%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.79%	-1.53%		-0.32%	-0.97%	-0.78%	0.18%
CAD	0.10%	-0.47%	-1.17%	0.32%		-0.66%	-0.44%	0.32%
AUD	0.60%	0.17%	-0.53%	0.97%	0.66%		0.18%	0.95%
NZD	0.55%	-0.01%	-0.71%	0.78%	0.44%	-0.18%		0.77%
CHF	-0.23%	-0.78%	-1.50%	-0.18%	-0.32%	-0.95%	-0.77%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Tariffs FAQs

What are tariffs?

Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

How do tariffs differ from taxes?

Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

What are the economic arguments for and against tariffs?

There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

What is Donald Trump’s stance on tariffs?

During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

August 11, 2025 0 comments

Business

NFP June: Cooling Labor Market & Fed Rate Cut Outlook

by Priya Shah – Business Editor July 3, 2025

written by Priya Shah – Business Editor

Okay, I’ve analyzed the provided text. Here’s a summary of the key points and potential implications:

Key Takeaways from the Article:

Event: The article focuses on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, to be released on Thursday.
Importance: The NFP data is crucial because it will influence expectations regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next interest rate cut. This, in turn, will impact the US Dollar (USD).
Expectations:
NFP is expected to rise by 110,000 jobs.
The Unemployment Rate (UE) is expected to tick up to 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are expected to rise by 3.9% year-over-year.
Fed’s Stance: The fed is currently taking a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency. Chairman Powell has stated that no meeting is “off the table” for a rate cut,but it depends on the incoming data.
Recent Data:
JOLTS Job Openings were surprisingly strong.
Manufacturing PMI improved slightly.
ADP private sector payrolls showed a decline.
Market Pricing: Traders are currently pricing in 64 basis points of cuts this year, with a 25% chance of a cut in July.
Potential Scenarios and Impact on EUR/USD (and Gold):
Weak NFP (below 100,000) and Rising Unemployment: This would signal a loosening labor market, increasing the likelihood of a fed rate cut. This would likely weaken the USD and potentially boost the EUR/USD pair and Gold.
Strong NFP (above 150,000) and Stable Unemployment: This would reduce expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially strengthening the USD and causing a pullback in EUR/USD and Gold.
EUR/USD technical Outlook: The article mentions a potential pullback in EUR/USD towards the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1568. Key resistance is at the September 2021 high of 1.1909.In simpler terms:

the market is waiting for the jobs report to get a better idea of whether the US economy is slowing down enough for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. If the jobs report is weak, it suggests the economy is slowing, and the Fed is more likely to cut rates, which would likely weaken the dollar. If the jobs report is strong, it suggests the economy is still strong, and the fed is less likely to cut rates, which would likely strengthen the dollar.

Important Considerations:

Market Sentiment: Market sentiment and risk appetite can also play a significant role in how the market reacts to the NFP data.
Revisions: keep in mind that previous NFP reports are often revised, which can also impact the market.* other Factors: While the NFP is a key indicator, other economic data and global events can also influence the USD and EUR/USD.

July 3, 2025 0 comments