Russia‘s Economy Shows Signs ofโค Strain as Sanctions Tighten,Recession Looms
MOSCOW – russia’s economy is exhibiting increasing signs of vulnerability as Western sanctions aimed at curtailing funding for itsโค war in Ukraine begin to bite,with indicators suggesting a potential โฃrecession is already underway. โWhile domestic production of consumer goods is increasing to fillโฃ gaps โleft by departing Western brands, the broader economic picture is โฃdarkening, fueled by declining energy revenues and shrinking GDP.
The โขRussian economy’s reliance on energy exports makes it notably โsusceptible to sanctions. Companies โaccount โขfor roughly half of the country’s oil exports, with Rosneft alone contributing approximately 17%โ ofโ Russia’s federal budget revenue. โhowever,maintaining these export levels is becoming more challenging,requiring increased workarounds that addโ to costs and perhaps deterโค customers wary of secondaryโข sanctions.
Capital Economics warnedโค on Thursday thatโข the hit โto energy revenues could push Russia into a recession. Data released last month by Russia’s central bank revealed that the country’s GDP shrank onโฃ a sequential โbasis in both the first and second quarters of the โขyear, technically meeting the definition of aโค recession. โ
Adding to the concerns, Sberbankโ CEO German โคGref, a leading figure in Russia’s banking sector, acknowledgedโฃ in September that the economy was inโ “technical stagnation.” Earlier, in June, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov cautioned that โคRussia wasโ “on the brink” of a โฃrecession.
The impact of newlyโค implemented U.S. sanctions remainsโค to be fully seen, โwith some analysts suggesting they โmay be part of a negotiating strategy. Capital Economics โnotedโ the โdifficulty of sustaining aโ policyโ that โwould drive up U.S. gasoline prices.
Despiteโค the growing economic โpressures, โanalysts beleive a recession, even a importent one, is unlikely to immediately compel president Putin to alter his course in Ukraine. “Russia’s economic problemsโฃ have not had much bearing โคon Putin’sโ war aims so far, and the kremlin will want to resist being strong-armed into a deal byโ the US,” Capital Economics stated. Though,โฃ the firmโ anticipates that the โขeconomic costs of โคcontinuing the โขwar will continue to escalate for Putin.