Dow Jones index

U.S. Stock Diary | The Dow rose above 38,000 points for the first time in history (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

Wall Street stocks rose for three days in a row, with the Dow Jones closing above 38,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500 hitting new intraday and closing highs for two consecutive days. Investors are increasingly confident that U.S. inflation can continue to fall without causing a recession. Oil prices have risen significantly. The Yemeni terrorist organization Youth Movement claimed that it attacked the US freighter “Ocean Jazz” with missiles, but the US claimed that it was untrue. Since the listing of the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin has fallen further, falling below the $40,000 level on Monday, with an intraday drop of 5.5%.

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Market conditions on January 22 (Monday)

l The Dow Jones index rose 138.01 points, or 0.36%, to 38,001.81 points.

l The S&P 500 index rose 10.62 points, or 0.22%, to 4,850.43 points.

l The Nasdaq index rose 49.32 points, or 0.32%, to 15,360.29 points.

l New York February oil futures closed at US$75.19 a barrel, up US$1.78 or 1.4%.

l New York February gold futures closed at $2,022.2 an ounce, down 8.4 or 0.3%.

l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.146%, up 0.2 points.

The two major AI concept chip stocks developed separately after hitting new highs the previous day. AMD retreated 3.4%, and Nvidia also fell once, but the rebound was stable at the end of the market. Among the Big Seven technology stocks, all except Apple and Nvidia fell.

United Airlines reported better-than-expected results after the market closed. The company closed down about 1%. It rose more than 6% in the extended trading session after the market closed. Department store stock Macy’s rejected a US$5.8 billion privatization proposal, and its stock price rose more than 3%.

Florida Governor DeSantis announced his withdrawal from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and also announced his support for Trump’s candidacy for U.S. president. DWAC, held by Trump, rose sharply, closing at 88%.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March to fall to 40%, significantly lower than the nearly 81% estimate a week ago. The probability that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged is close to 58%, up from about 19% a week ago.

Fourth-quarter results were worse than average. According to FactSet data, only 69% of the 52 S&P 500 companies that have released financial reports were better than expected. This is lower than the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 74%. Meanwhile, earnings are down 1.9% for the quarter so far. If the company’s average earnings ultimately decline, it will be the fourth year-over-year earnings decline in the past five quarters.

Citigroup is optimistic about the market outlook, with the S&P 500 index targeting 5,100 points by the end of the year. Strategists such as Scrott Chronert said that although the S&P 500 index reached a new high and the forward price-earnings ratio of the index rose back to above 20, this was a deviation caused by the “Big Seven”. After excluding the excessive influence of the “Big Seven”, it can be concluded that The forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 16, which is 17% lower than the standard valuation of the index. It seems that U.S. stocks are not expensive.

While the S&P 500 index reached new highs, HSBC analyst Max Kettner wrote: “While it may be tempting to chase the latest all-time high, we still believe that there will be a reversal in almost all asset classes in the coming months. He believes that in addition to artificial intelligence benefit stocks, small and micro-cap stocks, high beta coefficient stocks and meme stocks have fallen like European stock markets this year.

Christopher Harvey, an analyst at Wells Fargo, said that even though the overall economic outlook has improved and large-cap stocks have lagged the S&P 500, “we believe the ‘good news shipment’ from large-cap stocks continues.”

2024-01-22 22:38:22
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U.S. Stock Diary | The Dow rose 170 points, Nvidia broke through the top, and the Bitcoin ETF was finally approved (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

The Wall Street stock market rose, and the three major indexes were supported at the end of the day. The Dow Jones index closed up 170 points, but the volatility was not large. The market is waiting to see data and performance. Bitcoin has stabilized at the level of 45,000 to 46,000 US dollars. In the afternoon of Eastern Time, the US Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Initially, a total of 11 can be listed, and trading will begin on Thursday.

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Market conditions on January 10 (Wednesday)

l The Dow Jones index rose 170.57 points, or 0.45%, to 37,695.73 points.

l The S&P 500 index rose 26.95 points, or 0.57%, to 4,783.45 points.

l The Nasdaq index rose 111.94 points, or 0.75%, to 14,969.65 points.

l New York January oil futures closed at US$71.37 a barrel, down US$0.87 or 1.2%. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 1.34 million barrels, gasoline inventories rose much more than expected, and oil prices turned lower.

l New York February gold futures closed at 2,033.0 27.8 US dollars an ounce, down 5.2 US dollars or 0.3%.

l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.03%, up 1.1 points.

Technology stocks generally rose. Nvidia rose 2.3%, setting new closing highs for three consecutive days. Its market value once challenged US$1.6 trillion, approaching Amazon. However, affected by the unsatisfactory performance of TSMC, most other chip stocks fell; Meta and Alphabet both reached their highest levels in at least a year. . Real estate-related stocks rose, with Home Depot up nearly 3% and builder Lennar up 3.5%.

“Right now, the market is pretty quiet, but I don’t think it will be quiet all year,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “The current market price pricing has fully reflected the soft landing scenario. What is the next step? This may be “no landing,” which means that bond interest rates may not be as stable as they are now, and some interest rate reductions may have to turn around and rise. And then the market moves again…and then this is not the rally that went up from the end of last year.”

However, another Fed official is trying to curb market expectations for a sharp interest rate cut, this time it is the third-in-command, New York Fed President John Williams. He stressed that although inflation has improved “significantly”, there is still a long way to go back to normal.

“The policy stance of restricting economic growth needs to be maintained for a period of time to achieve our goals.” He said: “Only when we are confident that inflation can sustainably return to the 2% level will restrictive policies be relaxed.”

After officials repeatedly contradicted the market, the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled down. The interest rate futures market shows that investors believe that the chance that the authorities will start to cut interest rates in March has dropped from a low of nearly 74% last year to a low of 74% in recent days. About 60%.

In terms of data, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that U.S. wholesale inventories decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in November last year, falling for two consecutive months, which was consistent with the initial value. It was revised to a decrease of 0.3% last month.

The market is looking forward to the consumer price data released on Thursday, as well as the fourth-quarter earnings period of US stocks. The first is Chase, which will release its results on Friday.

2024-01-10 22:48:08
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U.S. Stock Diary｜Three indexes have been suspended for nine consecutive weeks (Spencer Platt via Getty Images)

The Wall Street stock market’s upward trend was weak. The market opened higher and made gains in the early hours. The Dow Jones index once rose by nearly 200 points. However, all three major indexes fell for a time in the afternoon, and finally closed with only slight gains. The performance of economic data was mixed, and the performance of the bond market was mixed. The interest rate of the 10-year government bond remained at around 4%.

To sum up the week, U.S. stocks had a bad start to the new year. The nine-week winning streak of the three major indexes was broken. The Nasdaq index performed the worst, falling by more than 3%. Stimulated by the situation in the Middle East, oil prices rose for five consecutive weeks, while gold prices ended their three-week rally.

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Market conditions on January 5 (Friday)

l The Dow Jones index rose 25.77 points, or 0.07%, to 37,466.11 points. To sum up the week, the Dow fell 0.59%.

l The S&P 500 index rose 8.56 points, or 0.18%, to 4,697.24 points. It fell 1.52% for the week.

l The Nasdaq index rose 13.77 points or 0.09% to 14,524.07 points. It fell 3.25% this week.

l New York January oil futures closed at US$73.81 a barrel, up US$1.62 or 2.2%. It rose about 3% a week. Rising for 5 consecutive weeks.

l New York February gold futures closed at US$2,049.8 an ounce, down US$0.2 or less than 0.1%. It fell 1.1% for the week, ending three consecutive weeks of gains.

l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.042%, up 5.1 points.

After Apple was looked down upon by major banks, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Justice might launch a large-scale antitrust lawsuit in the first half of the year. The stock price fell for five consecutive years, falling 6% in a week. Nvidia rebounded, rising 2.2%, driving chip stocks to generally perform well, but the seven giant technology companies rose or fell in different ways. Bank stocks rose, with Bank of America and Wells Fargo rising more than 1%.

Investors poured $123 billion into cash funds in the week ended January 3, Bank of America data showed. Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a report citing data from EPFR Global that while inflows into currency markets are common at the beginning of each year, inflows in the first week of this year were the highest ever.

Meanwhile, stocks saw inflows of $7.6 billion for the second consecutive week, and bond funds saw $10.6 billion inflows. Hartnett said that if the Fed’s rate hike cycle is definitely over, the “current phase of inflows” in money markets could end in September.

Economic data were mixed. The U.S. Department of Labor announced that non-agricultural employment increased by 216,000 jobs in December, far exceeding the 170,000 expected; the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, lower than market expectations of 3.8%. The increase in hiring came mainly from an increase of 52,000 government jobs. During the period, average hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared with expectations for an increase of 0.3%; average weekly working hours fell slightly to 34.3 hours.

However, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released later, unexpectedly fell to 50.6 last month, the lowest since May last year. Among them, the employment sub-index fell to a contraction level of 43.3, a new low in the past three and a half years. The new orders index for the services industry fell to 52.8 last month, and both the new export orders index and the input price index fell.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the current economic situation can be called a soft landing, pointing out that wages have risen faster than prices, and “the improvement of middle-income families is very obvious”, and praised the Federal Reserve for taking corrective actions.

2024-01-05 22:55:00
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