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The Russian currency on Friday once again collapsed against the dollar and the euro, which in the course of trading exceeded the level, respectively, of 96 rubles and 106 rubles. At the same time, Russian stock indices showed negative dynamics. This is evidenced by the trading data of the Moscow Exchange.

At 18:59 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate with “tomorrow” settlements amounted to 95.69 rubles, which is 70 kopecks higher than the closing level of the previous auction. At this time, the euro has risen in price by 2.38 rubles – the rate has stopped at the position of 106.61 rubles.

In the course of trading on the Moscow Exchange, 23.9 thousand transactions with the dollar for 1.2 billion dollars and 8.9 thousand transactions with the euro for 347.8 million euros were carried out. The exchange rate ranges were 94.2-96.29 rubles per dollar and 103.16-106.06 rubles per euro.

“Key factors continue to put pressure on the ruble. First of all, this is an insufficient supply of foreign currency, caused by a reduction in export earnings due to sanctions restrictions, geopolitics, as well as Russia’s voluntary reduction in oil exports to support world prices. At the same time, the demand for the currency remains high both from the side of recovered imports and from Russian individuals and non-residents withdrawing funds from the country, who are withdrawing from their assets in the Russian Federation. So far, the improvement in the commodity market has not been able to significantly reduce the imbalance in the domestic foreign exchange market,” believes Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments.

“The market is repeating the scenario of late June – early July, when, in the face of low exchange liquidity and the lack of supply of foreign exchange earnings, increased demand for the currency of a number of large players sharply weakened the position of the Russian currency. It should be noted that in the summer months, additional demand for foreign currency is also actively presented by the population. At this stage, the Russian currency can only hope that at the beginning of next week the demand for the currency at the achieved levels will be satisfied. In this case, we expect the dollar to correct below 94 rubles (towards the July peak),” said Yury Kravchenko, head of the banking and money market analysis department at Veles Capital Investment Company.

On the stock market, the Moscow Exchange index at 18:50 fell by 1.76% compared to the previous close and amounted to 3,092.44 points. The RTS index fell by 2.95% and amounted to 1,015.74 points.

Current quotes, analytical market reviews and recommendations on stocks, bonds, currencies and raw materials from leading brokerage companies and banks can be found in the section “Analytics”.

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2023-08-04 16:42:00
#ruble #collapsed #dollar #euro

In Russia, began selling the most reliable crossover in the world (according to the American company JD Power). We are talking about the latest generation Lexus RX, which, thanks to parallel imports, is also imported to the Russian Federation, writes Daily-Motor.

The new 2023 Lexus RX has arrived in the country in both petrol and hybrid versions. In the most powerful of them, the crossover accelerates to 100 km / h in 6.2 seconds, and its maximum speed is 210 km / h. At the same time, as noted in the material, a large batch of such cars was delivered to the Russian Federation.

Reliability studies have shown that there are only 111 different problems per 100 Lexus RXs produced, while the industry average is almost twice as high at 186 problems per 100 vehicles. The Lexus brand itself also received the best reliability rating of all brands participating in the survey, with 133 problems per 100 vehicles, which is 40 fewer failures than Cadillac and 51 failures less than BMW.

In Russia, prices for such a car start at 5 million rubles. However, depending on the seller, they may vary. In some cases, the cost of the latest generation Lexus RX reaches 12.4 million rubles.

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2023-07-29 08:52:00
#Sales #reliable #crossover #world #began #Russia

AvtoVAZ decided to rename RN Bank, which previously belonged to the Renault-Nissan alliance that left Russia. Now the credit institution will be called Auto Finance Bank.

In addition, AvtoVAZ terminated the powers of all current members of the Board of Directors ahead of schedule and elected its new composition, reports Interfax with reference to the bank’s message.

At the end of June, AvtoVAZ closed a deal to acquire a 100% stake in RN Bank from the holding company BARN BV, through which the partners owned this credit institution (40% from UniCredit Bank, 30% each from French Renault and Japanese Nissan Motor).

The partners decided to sell RN Bank to the AvtoVAZ group at the end of last year. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave permission for the deal.

After the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, Renault and Nissan decided to leave the Russian Federation.

RN Bank is focused on issuing car loans and factoring financing for car dealers. As of June 1, the credit institution ranked 70th in terms of assets among Russian banks according to Interfax.

2023-07-21 17:32:00
#AvtoVAZ #renamed #RenaultNissan #alliance #bank #bought

Banki.ru was the first among financial marketplaces to launch its loyalty program. Users can receive cashback, discounts and promotional codes for participating in promotions when purchasing financial, insurance and investment products. Banki.ru promotions and partner offers are updated and launched several times a month.

In order to join the loyalty program, you need to register, go to the promotions section through your personal account and select one of the current offers of Banki.ru from the list.

“This is the first full-fledged loyalty program implemented on the financial marketplace. Our users actively use the program when applying for financial, insurance and investment products and receive additional income,” says Maria Shamba, director of personalization and development of the Banki.ru mobile application.

Now Banki.ru has a promotion “Bonus for Deposit”, according to which you can get up to 2 thousand rubles for making a deposit. You can get a hull insurance policy at Banki.ru with a profit of up to 90% by taking part in the “4,000 ₽ for your car” campaign: 1,000 rubles can be spent on fuel and 3,000 rubles on car repairs.

Among the special offers is Banki.ru’s own product (JSC Tsifrovye Tekhnologii) — the Decent Percentage deposit. You can open a deposit and manage it completely online, without visiting the bank office.

All bonuses and cashback are displayed in the “Rewards” section in your account on the website or in the mobile application. You can use the accrued cashback or promotional code in a few clicks. To withdraw funds, you must copy the promo code or specify the bank account details in the “My Wallet” section.

2023-07-18 08:00:00
#Banki.ru #launched #loyalty #program

Credit Europe Bank raised the rates on the “Term” deposit for 730 and 1098 days to 8.4% per annum (previously for 730 days the rate was 7.65%, for 1098 days – 7.9%).

The minimum deposit amount is 3 thousand rubles. Additional contributions and expenditure operations are not provided. Interest is paid at the end of the term. In case of early termination of the contract, interest is paid at the rate of 0.01% per annum.

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2023-07-07 12:31:00
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According to modern economic theory, the market economy is subject to repeated fluctuations – economic cycles. At the stage of recovery, there is an acceleration of production and an increase in prices, at the stage of recession – on the contrary.

Each cycle includes several phases – a period of economic growth and recession. Cycles can relate to the economy of a single country or the global economy as a whole.

As a rule, there are four main types of economic cycles that have different durations: Kitchin and Juglar cycles, Kuznets rhythms and long Kondratiev waves.

We tell you what phases economic cycles have, when the next cycle will begin and whether it can lead to an increase in oil prices up to 300 per barrel, and gold up to 5 thousand dollars per ounce.

How business cycles work: four phases

Every business cycle has four phases: boom, peak, bust and bottom.

A boom is a period of growth in economic activity from the lowest point of the cycle to the highest. It is characterized by an increase in investment, output and employment of the population. Peak is the highest point of economic activity within the cycle. Choose a broker for investment Recession (recession) – a period of decline in economic activity from the highest point of the cycle to the lowest. It is characterized by a decrease in investment, output and employment. A particularly long and deep recession is called a depression. A bottom is the lowest point in an economic downturn.

Cycles in modern economic science are considered a phenomenon of a market economy, which is absent in a planned economy. According to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, there were 33 cycles of varying length and depth in the American economy between 1854 and 2009.

What are economic cycles

There are the following cycles:

short-term Kitchin cycles (named after the English economist Joseph Kitchin) – a characteristic period of 2–3 years; medium-term Juglar cycles (in honor of the French economist Clement Juglar), 7–11 years; Kuznets cycles (rhythms) (in honor of the American economist Simon Kuznets) , 15–20 years old; long waves of Kondratiev (in honor of the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev), 48–55 years old.

At the same time, most modern economists are inclined to believe that the cycles are of a random nature, arising as a result of external influences (shocks), therefore, they are difficult to predict accurately.

The duration and amplitude of oscillations of cycles can vary significantly. The duration of the cycle depends on the nature of the shock and on the response of states and governments to it.

What is the current economic cycle

The global economy is now slowing down, experts interviewed by Banki.ru say. Many economists have been warning about the threat of a global recession since the beginning of 2022.

Valery Emelyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, believes that, if we consider the shortest cycles (Kitchin), the world economy is on its way to the bottom of the recession – the bottom of the cycle. “But is this so, it will be clear only after the fact. It is possible that the bottom was passed in the first half of 2023,” he says.

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Juglar waves, according to Yemelyanov, are applicable to investment activity, including in commodity markets. Judging by the balance of supply and demand, as well as the dynamics of prices, the world economy is halfway to the bottom, he says. The analyst explains that raw materials have been getting cheaper for a year already, and this trend may continue for at least another year.

The Kondratiev cycles, according to the expert, are rarely used in analysis and are more interesting from a historical point of view. Yemelyanov draws attention to the fact that, on a 30-year cycle, the geopolitical crisis associated with the events in Ukraine is as insignificant an event as the war in Iraq in 2003, which affected oil prices, but not for long.

What’s happening to commodity prices

At the end of June, Bloomberg wrotethat a new long-term economic cycle, namely the Kondratieff cycle, will begin as early as the beginning of July this year. This will mean a period of rising world prices for raw materials and food products. The article noted that after peaking in the late 2000s, the commodity price index began to decline. Now it is returning to the mark from which the previous growth began.

At the same time, the dynamics of world commodity prices does not yet indicate the end of the old cycle in 2023 and the beginning of a new one. To illustrate, consider four commodities: oil, gold, copper, and wheat.

The historical maximum price of oil was recorded in 2008, when a barrel of Brent oil cost more than $140. Then the price dropped sharply. Despite periods of recovery, the price has not approached a peak level for more than a decade, only last year it jumped to a level of more than $130 per barrel.

The price of gold began to fall later than the price of oil. It peaked in 2011 at around $1,900 per troy ounce. New growth began already in 2018, and in 2020 a new price record was set – more than $2,000 per ounce. In 2022-2023, the price of gold was approaching this peak.

The price of copper, like the price of gold, began to decline in 2011 from a high of $4.5 per pound. But since 2020, the price has risen steadily and hit a new peak of $4.9 per pound in 2022.

The price of wheat, like the price of oil, has been declining for a long time after the high of 2008 (about $13 per bushel). Since 2018, the cost of the commodity has shifted to growth, and in March 2022, there was a surge in prices to a new high of more than $14 per bushel.

Yemelyanov believes that the jump in commodity prices in 2022 was not the beginning of a new cycle, but was a continuation of the old one. According to him, prices for raw materials periodically jump up, but in general, a decrease in quotations has been observed over the past 15 years.

Should we wait for the start of a new economic cycle in 2023?

It is not worth counting on a quick start of a new Kondratiev cycle and an increase in raw material prices, says Denis Popov, chief analyst at PSB. He explains that the start of a long-term cycle may take several years, and throughout this period, high volatility or a noticeable decrease in prices in commodity markets cannot be ruled out.

Forecasting long-term economic cycles is a rather difficult task, and besides, they manifest themselves on a scale of decades, adds Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department of FG Finam. In her opinion, now many factors indicate a likely long-term stagflation in the global economy (increased inflation and weak economic growth).

“This is due to the budget deficits of many large economies, geopolitical tensions, partial deglobalization and economic confrontations, the “green transition”, and the long-term underinvestment in the oil industry,” the expert explains. These factors, according to her, lead to a shortage of resources, technologies, contribute to rising costs, which means that prices for raw materials can grow in the long term.

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On the other hand, Belenkaya continues, central banks are trying to control high inflation by raising interest rates, which increases the risks of a recession and a financial crisis. This may temporarily “pressure” commodity prices, she notes. “But the ability to defeat inflation only by monetary methods is limited and, perhaps, central banks will have to put up with increased inflation for a while,” the expert predicts.

Typically, commodity prices rise in the late cycle of economic growth, says Yemelyanov. According to him, at this stage, investors are buying up any risky assets, including futures for oil and metals, because all other assets are already too expensive. “For some spectacular and lasting rise in the prices of fuels and basic materials, there must first be an impressive economic boom,” he states. The expert adds that now the world is experiencing a high demand for shares of Western companies, primarily technology. Such a phenomenon happens before the start of GDP growth, but not at a late stage of the cycle, Yemelyanov notes.

Popov draws attention to the fact that in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin “gave a signal” about the transition to building a “supply-side economy.” Its essence lies in the fact that economic policy should not only respond to the dynamics and vector of market conditions, but also be aimed at the formation and satisfaction of demand, he explains. “In the coming years, the development of the Russian economy is likely to occur mainly due to internal drivers,” the expert believes.

What will happen to the dollar

In the fall of 2022, the dollar index updated its maximum in 20 years, reminds Belenkaya. The US Federal Reserve was more resolute than other central banks in raising interest rates, and this was reflected in the outpacing growth in the yields of US government bonds, in the expansion of the interest rate differential for the dollar and other currencies. But as other central banks also began to actively tighten monetary policy, the dollar has lost some of its previous strength, she points out.

Here you can find out the current exchange rates in banks and exchangers.

Popov considers the prospects for the ruble exchange rate in the coming years “ambiguous.” In his opinion, even if a new commodity supercycle begins, the ruble will be stable and will be able to show only a moderate strengthening. The expert explains that in most countries – Russia’s trading partners, the inflation target is lower than in Russia (4%). This means that, other things being equal, the relative depreciation of the Russian national currency will occur faster. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation plans to revise the inflation target, Popov says, but it will take at least two to three years to reduce inflation, so the medium-term forecast of the PSB assumes a moderate weakening of the ruble.

Raw material prices are inversely related to the value of the dollar (against the euro, pound sterling or yen), Yemelyanov adds. But the dollar grows against the ruble in any cycle and political system, he concludes.

With the help of the Banki.ru service, you can choose a deposit or a savings account, study the topic of investments more, choose a broker, and also find out the situation on the metal, currency and real estate markets.

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2023-07-06 19:31:00
#Economic #cycles #stage #economy #oil