Tag:

cut interest rates

US Stock indexes rise as investors await technology earnings reports

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com April 23, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

Major US stock indexes opened higher on Tuesday (23rd), with some growth stocks and chip stocks rising Meanwhile, investors were digesting the release of first quarter financial reports with most companies and await the arrival of technology later in the week. .

before the date,Dow Jones industrial averagean increase of almost 160 points or almost 0.4%,Nasdaq benchmark indexrose more than 140 points or nearly 1%,S&P 500 Indexan increase of almost 0.7%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell by almost 1.4%.

With several major tech companies set to release earnings this week, major US stock indexes were mixed ahead of the open on Tuesday. AI) reasonable craze.S&P 500 IndexandNasdaq 100 futures returned modest gains.

Before the US stock market opens, many companies have released financial reports one after the other, with different results UPS (USP-US), Lockheed Martin (USP-US).LMT-US), General Motors (GM-US) delivered impressive results last quarter, and its stock price rose before the market opened;PEP-US), Invesco Investment Corporation (IVZ-US), Mingsheng Company (MSCI-US), Philip Morris International (PM-US) The stock price fell before the market due to the impact of the financial report.

But the most important is Tesla, the American electric car leader (TSLA-US) released its first quarter financial report after the market closed on Tuesday.

This week, about 180 companies (representingS&P 500 IndexMore than 40% of market capitalization) will announce financial reports, and earnings will become a focus for investors. Geopolitical concerns prompted a drop in stocks before investors focused on corporate profits, a sign that the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to cut interest rates.

Eddie Cheung, senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, said: “Whether the market consolidates further from now on may depend on assessing the sustainability of demand for AI after the earnings release.” “

In other news, led by a buoyant services sector and a return to growth in Germany,EURInterregional business activity rose to its highest level in the past year. European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said that unless there is an economic surprise, an interest rate cut in June will be a “fait accompli”.

“We remain focused on the current earnings season, which could lead investors to refocus on fundamentals,” wrote Citigroup strategists Mihir Tirodkar and Beata Manthey in a note: “We would view the recent pullback as a buy Enter opportunity.

From 22:00 Taipei time on Tuesday (23rd): Stock focus:

apple (AAPL-US) shares were down 0.21% in early trading to $165.50 per share

According to data from Counterpoint Research, Apple’s iPhone sales in China fell 19% in the first quarter of this year, which was the worst sales performance in China since the new epidemic began around 2020. ‘ group believes that Apple will fall to third place in the highly competitive Chinese market, roughly the same as the fast competitor Huawei. The weakness of the iPhone is very special because the first quarter is when China celebrates the Lunar New Year, usually a time of peak consumption.

Huida (NVDA-SA) shares rose 1.51% to $807.21 per share in early trading

Reuters reported exclusively on Tuesday that although the United States imposed excessive restrictions on the export of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China last year, Chinese universities and research institutes have recently acquired Huida through distributors.NVDA-SA) high-end AI chip. The report indicated that after reviewing hundreds of application documents, it was found that the United States expanded the implementation of chip export controls on November 17 last year, forcing more chips and national compliance licensing requirements. , 10 Chinese groups have pulled out of Supermicro (SMCI-US), Dell Technologies (DELL-US) and Taiwanese manufacturer GIGABYTE (2376-TW), the advanced Huida chips embedded in them can be found.

General Motors (GM-US) shares rose 2.90% to $44.47 per share in early trading

General Motors had better-than-expected first-quarter revenue and profit and revised its full-year forecast higher. The automaker said it decided to raise its guidance after strong North American business in the first quarter offset losses elsewhere, and now expects adjusted profit in the range of $ 12.5 to $14.5 billion, or $9 to $10 per share, up from the previous range of US$12 to US$14 billion, or US$8.5 to US$9.5 per share.

Today’s key economic data:

April US manufacturing PMI reported 49.9, 52.0 expected, and the previous value of 51.9
US services PMI in April reported 50.9, 52.0 expected, and the previous value of 51.7
The US Comprehensive PMI in April was 50.9, compared to the previous value of 52.1.

Wall Street Analysis:

BlackRock’s chief global fixed income investment officer still predicts that the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates twice this year as inflation slows in the coming months. He also pointed out that BlackRock has lowered its interest rate and shifted its investment portion more to short-term investments.

Deutsche Bank AG strategists said investors will continue to reduce their exposure to large-cap growth stocks and technology stocks, from the 97th percentile in early March to the current 77th percentile. The strategists wrote that the sector is still the only one with a position above the historical average, even if it is no longer true.

2024-04-23 13:49:39
#Stock #Morning #Trading #market #awaiting #release #financial #reports #large #technology #stocks #major #indexes #opened #higher #Anue #JuhengUS

April 23, 2024 0 comments

Business

Stock Indexes Rise Despite Concerns Over Interest Rate Cut Delay – Market Analysis

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com April 8, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

Major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Monday (8th) as most large-cap stocks rose. However, rising bets that the U.S. central bank may delay an interest rate cut this year and rising U.S. bond yields limited gains in major stock indexes.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose more than 100 points or nearly 0.3%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 10 points or nearly 0.1%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose nearly 0.1%.

Global bonds fell and stock markets mostly fluctuated slightly, as traders lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts in the face of the resilience of U.S. economic data. Exchange rates suggest the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by around 60 basis points this year, so the most likely outcome is two rate cuts. On Friday, the probability of three interest rate cuts was still above 50%.

It’s a busy week for investors, including U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and the start of first-quarter earnings. U.S. employment data released on Friday exceeded expectations for the fifth consecutive month, supporting the Fed’s view of being patient about cutting interest rates. The next key moment for the market is the consumer price data (CPI) released on Wednesday (10th), which is expected to show further evidence of a gradual cooling of the economy.

Madison Faller, global investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said: “The risk does exist, and seeing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continue to exceed 5% indicates that the market believes that a rate increase is more likely. However, as long as Investors think the next move is to cut interest rates, and they should be able to weather this transition.”

JPMorgan’s Faller said the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in June, but another rise in CPI may delay a rate cut. As for the European Central Bank, no major action is expected, but the confirmation that interest rates will be adjusted starting in June will be significant.

Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said: “We still think a rate cut is likely in June, although last Friday’s very strong jobs report makes it more controversial. We are talking about the labor market not only being tight, but also And it’s pretty strong.”

Following the release of March inflation data midweek, market focus will turn to the start of the first-quarter corporate earnings season, with JPMorgan (JPM-US), Citigroup (C-US) and Wells Fargo (WFC-US) will release its financial report on Friday (12th).

On the energy front, international oil prices fell from a five-month high after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza.Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, lifting global benchmarks amid rising geopolitical tensions and supply shocksBrent crude oilThe prospect of prices reaching triple digits and clouding the outlook for inflation.

Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at Abdrn Plc, said: “At this time, we expect the conflict to continue over the coming months without a major impact, but the risk remains high and we are monitoring the situation closely.”

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Monday (8th): Focus stocks:

Tesla (TSLA-US) shares rose 4.29% to $171.98 per share in early trading

As Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest continues to buy Tesla’s falling shares this year, the electric car maker is expected to regain its position as the top holding of the stock goddess’s flagship fund. ARK’s daily trading data shows that since December, its flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK-US) purchased more than 2.3 million shares of Tesla stock, raising its weighting to about 9.6%, second only to Coinbase, the current largest holding.COIN-US) of 9.86%. It is worth noting that Tesla has fallen by more than 33% since the beginning of the year.

Alibaba (BABA-US) shares rose 0.63% to $72.11 per share in early trading

According to multiple media reports on Monday (8th), Alibaba will reduce the price of cloud service products to international customers from the United States to Singapore by up to 59%. The second round of product fee reductions so far suggests competition is intensifying.

Netflix(NFLX-US) shares fell 0.80% in early trading to $631.12 per share

Netflix received a price target increase from Wall Street, with one analyst praising the company as a “winner in the streaming wars.” Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak issued a report on Friday, raising Netflix’s price target from $700 to $765 per share and maintaining a “buy” rating, arguing that he is optimistic about Netflix’s subscriber numbers and average revenue per user this year and beyond. (ARPU) forecasts are higher. Wall Street analysts have a price target of $615.67, according to FactSet.

Today’s key economic data:

none

Wall Street analysis:

Morgan Stanley said in a recent report that a review of historical data showed the biotech sector had been outperforming the broader market in the months leading up to the first rate cut, then underperformed for about a month. Shortly thereafter, stock prices began to climb again, with appreciation in the industry typically ranging from 20% to 30% over the next six to 12 months. The bank said it expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in June, and to cut interest rates a total of four times in 2024, by 25 basis points each time.

2024-04-08 13:48:36
#U.S #stocks #early #tradingGrowth #stocks #rise #major #indexes #open #higher #Anue #JuhengU.S #Stock #Radar

April 8, 2024 0 comments

Business

US Inflation Rises More than Expected, Fed Interest Rate Uncertainty

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com February 15, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

Xinhua News Agency, New York, February 13. Summary｜Inflation rises more than expected, and the outlook for the Fed to cut interest rates is uncertain

Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Yanan

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected in January, increasing uncertainty about the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later, and the intensity of the rate cuts may also be reduced.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 13th showed that the U.S. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in January, the largest increase since September last year; it rose 3.1% year-on-year, well above the 2% long-term inflation target set by the Federal Reserve and also higher than The market consensus was 2.9%. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month that month, higher than market expectations of 0.3%; the year-on-year increase was 3.9%, also higher than market expectations of 3.7%.

A tracking data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that after the above-mentioned CPI data was released that day, the market expected the probability of the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the March monetary policy meeting this year to rise to more than 90%; it was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting. The probability dropped to less than 35%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates exceeded 60%.

Bank of America Global Research said that day’s CPI data further strengthened concerns about inflationary pressures caused by tight labor markets. The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March and May has declined, and it is expected to start cutting interest rates in June. After the data was released, market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut in 2024 also decreased.

Casey Jones, head of fixed income business at US brokerage firm Charles Schwab, believes the Fed will view the latest CPI data as a reason to wait until May or June before cutting interest rates.

Market analyst James Helchik said the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy has now become more uncertain, which has led to a dampening of sentiment in the stock market. Some investors expect the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to rise above 5%, with technology stocks that have driven the stock market’s recent gains significantly affected.

The three major stock indexes in the New York stock market opened significantly lower on the 13th, continued to weaken during the session, and fell significantly at the close.

As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 524.63 points from the previous trading day to close at 38272.75 points, a decrease of 1.35%; the S&P 500 Stock Index fell 68.67 points to close at 4953.17 points, a decrease of 1.37%; Nasdaq The Gram Composite Index fell 286.95 points to close at 15655.60 points, a decrease of 1.80%.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globolt Investment Company in the United States, said that the stock market decline after the release of inflation data was an “instinctive reaction” among investors. Although the latest inflation data is somewhat worrying, it will not change the trend of cooling inflation. overall direction.

[Editor in charge: Peng Yao]

2024-02-15 02:44:00
#Summary丨Inflation #rises #expected #outlook #Fed #cut #interest #rates #uncertain_China #Net

February 15, 2024 0 comments

Business

S&P 500 Opens at Record High Due to Netflix and Technology Earnings

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com January 24, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

S&P 500 IndexOn Wednesday (24th), the market opened at a record high, mainly due to the impact of streaming media giant Netflix (NFLX-US), the number of users grew beyond expectations. In addition, Asmore (ASML-US) Strong earnings also helped technology stocks rise.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose nearly 900 points or nearly 0.2%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 110 points or nearly 0.7%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.5%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index gained nearly 0.8%.

Before the U.S. stock market opened, positive financial reports released by technology companies reinforced the overall strong outlook for the corporate sector.Nasdaq 100 Index futures moved in that direction, with the index hitting a new closing high yesterday. After Netflix’s last quarter financial report showed that the number of users greatly exceeded expectations, its stock price surged more than 10% before the market opened on Tuesday, while eBay (EBAY-US) also rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading after promising to cut about 9% of its workforce.

With Tesla (TSLA-US) and IBM(IBM-US) will release its latest earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, with technology stocks becoming the focus of the market. From a broader perspective, the U.S. earnings season so far suggests that businesses are coping well with rising interest rates.

Francois Rimeu, a strategist at La Francaise Asset Management in Paris, said: “We are currently in the sweet spot for the stock market. The U.S. economy is doing well and Europe’s economic growth is flat, but it is not a big drama and no one believes that inflationary pressures will return.” He added Earnings from technology and artificial intelligence (AI) are also rising in the U.S., which in itself is supporting the overall market, he said.

In the European market, lithography giant ASML (ASML) (ASML-US)’s performance in the fourth quarter of last year was outstanding. Net profit for the quarter exceeded expectations, and orders increased threefold quarterly, setting a record, which foreshadowed the recovery of the semiconductor industry.

InsingerGilissen analyst Jos Versteeg noted: “In the last week, TSMC (2330-TW) After reporting good results and outlook, there is hope that they will raise their outlook for 2024, and as end markets continue to recover, the company may upgrade its outlook later this year. “

The market’s focus now turns to the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada) later on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday (25th). Both central banks are expected to keep policy rates unchanged, but may signal the possibility of a first rate cut. Approximate time.

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Wednesday (24th): Focus stocks:

Ford (F-US) shares rose 0.04% to $11.38 per share in early trading

Ford is recalling nearly 1.9 million Explorer SUVs in the U.S. because parts could fly off, posing a danger to other drivers. The recall covers Explorer models from 2011 to 2019. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) says the clips that secure the roof mounts near the windshield may come loose. If this happens while driving, the accessory may fly away and increase the risk of a crash.

AT&T (T-US) shares fell 1.60% in early trading to $16.91 per share

AT&T on Wednesday forecast full-year profit below market expectations as the telecom operator faces fierce competition from cable TV operators and reduces the value of some older equipment, causing its shares to fall nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Dupont (DD-US) shares fell 13.33% to $64.73 per share in early trading

DuPont De Nemours said on Wednesday it expected to post a fourth-quarter loss compared with a profit in the same period last year, sending its shares down 12% in premarket trading on Wednesday. The cross-industry chemicals company expects ongoing operating losses of $220 to $370 million, after reporting a profit of $105 million last year.

Today’s key economic data:

US January Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value is expected to be 47.9, the previous value was 47.9
US January Markit services PMI initial value is expected to be 51.0, the previous value was 51.4
US January Markit comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 50.9

Wall Street analysis:

Wells Fargo Investment Research recently wrote in a report: “Our view is that earnings across all equity sectors have peaked and will decline as the economy softens and revenue growth stagnates. In the short term, we expect public companies to Earnings and stock prices will come under pressure.”

The bank’s statisticsS&P 500 IndexThe decline in earnings per share (EPS) over the past 12 months warned investors that the company’s earnings are “unlikely to escape the impact of the economic slowdown unscathed”. The median decline from peak to trough reached 21.4%.

2024-01-24 14:49:53
#U.S #Stocks #Morning #Trading #Netflix #assists #Index #open #record #high #Anue #JuhengU.S #Stock #Radar

January 24, 2024 0 comments

Business

S&P 500 Index Hits New Closing High, U.S. Economy Braces for Growth

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com January 22, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

After fluctuating within a narrow range for the past month,S&P 500 IndexLast Friday (19th) it hit a new closing high for the first time in more than two years.

S&P 500 IndexIt closed at 4839.81 points, surpassing the historical closing record of 4796.56 points set on January 3, 2022. According to FactSet data, the index rose to an intraday high of 4842.07 points, surpassing the intraday record of 4818.62 points set on January 4, 2022.

U.S. stocks experienced a bumpy start to 2024. Analysts attributed this to another rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in March.

However, even if the stock market cannot benefit from the Federal Reserve, it may still receive support from continued growth in the U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2024, which was the main reason for the rebound in U.S. stocks at the end of last year. But later, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic said in speeches that the Fed was in no rush to cut interest rates and might not even cut interest rates.

Last week’s economic data largely supported this view. U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in December from the previous quarter, the largest increase since September 2023; the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in December decreased by 18,000 to 187,000, the lowest level in 16 months.

In addition, the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index rose 9.1 points to 78.8 in January, the largest increase since 2005. Inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in three years, and expectations for an improvement in financial conditions strengthened. As of last week, the chance of a rate cut in March, which had excited investors, had dropped from 79% to 52%.

“Barron’s” analysis pointed out that if the factors driving the rise of U.S. stocks are the same as at the end of last year, then none of this makes sense. The gains in U.S. stocks suggest that something is starting to change, at least on the surface: The stock market is beginning to price in expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to grow and that interest rates may be cut less often.

Perhaps investors should have foreseen this. Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, pointed out that as of the end of 2023, the difference between investment grade bond and comparable maturity U.S. Treasury bond yields was only 0.99 percentage points, marking the seventh time since 1998 that it has been less than 1 percentage point at the beginning of the new year. .

In the past seven times, the average GDP growth rate of the United States was 2.2%, and the only year of decline was in 2020, when the new crown epidemic caused a complete economic stagnation. In recessionary years, the gap between investment-grade bond yields and U.S. Treasury yields of comparable maturities was more than 1.98 percentage points at the start of the new year. Harvey believes that this means that the US GDP growth rate will be above 2% this year, and the number of interest rate cuts will be far less than expected.

Changes in interest rate cut expectations could have hit the stock market, as was the case in late 2023, whenS&P 500 IndexThe forward price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months has increased from 17.48 times to 19.62 times by the end of the year; on the other hand, higher interest rates may lead to a decline in stock market valuations.

Worse, optimism about the economy may ultimately prove unfounded if the Fed delays cutting interest rates and pushes the economy into recession.

Roth MKM strategist Michael Darda said: “If the economy continues to grow, a higher interest rate structure will pose a threat to risk asset valuations; and if corporate revenue growth weakens this year, a deteriorating profit environment will become a threat. We The latter is still expected to happen.”

“Barron’s Weekly” remains optimistic that if the economy is as strong as it seems, it will provide momentum for the stock market to continue higher; if stronger growth translates into stronger profits, it will benefit small and value stocks.

2024-01-22 14:59:07
#Interest #rate #cut #expectations #cooled #economic #optimism #continues #support #stocks #reaching #highs #Anue #Juheng #Stock #Radar

January 22, 2024 0 comments

Business

U.S. Retail Sales Surge in December, May Delay Fed Interest Rate Cut

by Chief editor of world-today-news.com January 17, 2024

written by Chief editor of world-today-news.com

U.S. retail sales grew at the strongest pace in three months in December, capping off a strong holiday shopping season and showing that as we head into 2024, the spending power of the American people remains resilient and continues to support economic growth. . However, the market believes that this strong report may delay the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut.

(Photo: ZeroHedge)

Specifically, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% monthly in December last year, which was higher than market expectations of 0.4% and also exceeded the previous value of 0.3%, setting the largest increase in three months; core retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, Food services) increased by 0.8% month-on-month, far exceeding market expectations of 0.2% and higher than the previous value of 0.7%, the largest increase since July last year.

In terms of other data, retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.4% in December last year, higher than the 0.2% expected and the previous value. Retail sales excluding automobiles and natural gas increased by about 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.3%, and the previous value. flat.

Looking at the report details, 9 of the 13 categories saw sales growth, with apparel, department stores and e-commerce seeing the largest increases. Car sales rose 1.1% in December, the largest increase since May, while gas station sales fell for a third straight month as gasoline prices fell.

Among the 13 categories, 9 categories saw sales growth, with apparel, department stores and e-commerce seeing the largest increases. (Photo: ZeroHedge)

The data dashed economists’ predictions of a recession, which forecasters believe will fade this year as consumers grapple with persistent inflation, rising borrowing costs and dwindling savings.

“We continue to believe that as the impact of slower employment and wage growth begins to play out, and the likelihood of higher interest rates rises, we continue to think that The lagged impact will bring some additional losses and the U.S. economy will slow further in the future, but there are still no signs that a more severe recession is coming.”

Retail sales data mainly reflect the purchase of goods and account for a relatively small proportion of overall consumer spending. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for December will be released later this month.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy and is known as the “strongest pillar” of the U.S. economy, indicating that consumer spending may help drive economic growth this year.

Market Reaction

As the report dampened investors’ expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Fed, major U.S. stock indexes opened lower in early trading. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yieldanddollar indexBoth move higher.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell nearly 50 points or nearly 0.1%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 200 points or nearly 1.3%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.6%,Philadelphia SemiconductorIndex fell more than 2%, U.S. bonds 10-year yieldrose to 4.11%,dollar indexrose to 103.385.

2024-01-17 15:20:04
#U.S #retail #sales #increased #monthly #December #year #largest #increase #months #Anue #JuhengU.S #Stock #Radar

January 17, 2024 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts