The New Saudi Normal: A Shift in Power and Pragmatism
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States has undergone a significant shift, rooted in a shared understanding of the interplay between politics and business. For decades, the Saudi ruling families have operated within a system where these spheres are deeply intertwined – a dynamic they now find mirrored in the Trump administration, and continuing with the current one.The appointment of Jared Kushner as a key liaison during Trump’s first term solidified this connection, offering a level of familiarity the Saudis hadn’t previously experienced with American governance.
This shift in relationship coincides with a fundamental reimagining of Saudi Arabia itself, spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (M.B.S.). The narrative that he aims to transition the country from a religious dictatorship to a simply repressive one is, according to observers, a mischaracterization. M.B.S.’s stated goal is to create a “normal” country – not necessarily a democratic one, but an authoritarian state offering increased social freedoms. This is demonstrably true, with visible changes like allowing women to drive, expanding entertainment options, and increasing opportunities for women in the workforce.
However, this liberalization of social life is not coupled with any intention of political reform.Instead, M.B.S. is actively consolidating power, moving away from the traditional committee-based system of governance that, while slow and sometimes inefficient, also prevented rash decisions.This centralization has led to both successes and significant missteps. Early in his reign,M.B.S. pursued aggressive foreign policies - the war in Yemen, the blockade of Qatar, and even the audacious kidnapping of the Lebanese Prime Minister - all demonstrating a willingness to take risks that the previous committee system would have likely avoided. the Khashoggi killing stands as a stark example of the dangers inherent in this concentrated power. While lessons appear to have been learned, and a more cautious approach adopted on the international stage, M.B.S. shows no inclination to relinquish his control.
The current political climate is notably favorable for M.B.S. The lack of pressure for democratic reform from the current US administration is a significant boon, and his recent visit can be seen as a personal victory. Just five years ago, such a visit would have been unthinkable.
Looking at the broader regional landscape, M.B.S.’s initial aggressive posture towards Iran, coupled with interventions in Yemen, Lebanon, and Qatar, has seemingly tempered. His handling of the gaza conflict is a complex balancing act. While a deal with israel is highly likely desirable, he is acutely aware of the potential backlash from the Saudi population, deeply affected by the events unfolding in gaza. He must navigate a delicate path, acknowledging the potential for normalization with Israel while remaining sensitive to public opinion and the broader Arab world’s concerns.
This new Saudi Arabia, under M.B.S., is defined by a pragmatic blend of social liberalization and unwavering authoritarian control, operating within a geopolitical landscape where it finds a surprisingly receptive partner in the United States.