Crisis económica en Cuba

Cuba has reactivated a decades-old emergency oil supply plan, known as “Plan Opción Cero,” as the island nation faces a deepening energy crisis triggered by a blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments following the U.S.-led ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to reports confirmed Sunday.

The crisis, which began in January 2026, has left Cuba without adequate oil supplies, a situation exacerbated by U.S. Sanctions targeting countries sending oil to the island and threatening tariffs against those who resist, according to a statement from the U.S. Government. President Trump has publicly called on Cuba to negotiate a resolution, and suggested a potential role for Senator Marco Rubio in a future transition of power.

Cuba’s dependence on imported oil, primarily from Venezuela and Mexico, dates back to 1960, when American companies refused to refine Soviet crude oil. Cuba subsequently nationalized its refineries and became almost entirely reliant on the Soviet Union for its oil supply. By 1985, the USSR was providing 13.1 million metric tons of oil annually to Cuba, exceeding the island’s consumption of 10-11 million metric tons. A complex system of trade developed where Cuba exported sugar to the Soviet Union at vastly inflated prices – 44.8 cents per pound in 1985 compared to a world price of 4.1 cents – in exchange for oil priced below market value.

This arrangement extended beyond direct supply. According to a declassified CIA report from February 1982, Soviet oil prices to Cuba in 1980 were only 40% of the average OPEC price. Crucially, much of the oil never physically reached Cuba. The Soviet Union often sold the oil directly to Western European markets, depositing the currency earned into Cuban accounts, a practice documented by researcher Jorge Pérez-López in 1987. A triangular trade also existed, involving the Veba refinery in Venezuela, where Soviet crude was processed, and Venezuelan crude was then shipped to Cuba, minimizing transport costs.

Between 1983 and 1987, Cuba’s re-export scheme generated over 40% of the country’s total foreign currency earnings, surpassing even sugar exports, which accounted for only 21%. This system effectively converted $100 million in sugar purchases into approximately $400 million through oil re-exports, leveraging the price differential and favorable trade terms with the Soviet Union. However, this arrangement collapsed with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, leading to a severe economic crisis known as the “Special Period.”

In 2000, a latest oil partnership emerged with Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, initially providing Cuba with up to 53,000 barrels per day at concessionary terms. This increased to a peak of 105,000 barrels per day in 2012. In exchange, Cuba sent tens of thousands of professionals – doctors, teachers, and intelligence operatives – to Venezuela. While evidence of re-exportation during this period is less clear than during the Soviet era, Cuba reactivated the Cienfuegos refinery in 2007, a joint venture with PDVSA, to process Venezuelan crude for export to other Caribbean nations.

However, the decline of Venezuela’s oil production, falling from over 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to approximately 800,000 barrels per day in 2019-2020, has severely impacted Cuba’s supply. Shipments to Cuba plummeted to a low of 27,400 barrels per day in January-October 2025, a 15% decrease year-on-year. As of February 2026, Cuba holds only 15-20 days of oil reserves, according to satellite data. Power outages in Havana now exceed nine hours daily, and other provinces face significant electricity restrictions.

Mexico briefly emerged as an alternative supplier in 2023, providing approximately 16,800 barrels per day of Olmeca/Istmo crude. However, those shipments have also drastically decreased, falling 73% in 2025 to just 5,000 barrels per day. Russia has contributed marginally, accounting for around 10% of recent imports. The Cuban government has implemented a four-day work week, suspended jet fuel supplies for a month, and restricted fuel sales to the public. Bloomberg reported in February 2026, using satellite imagery, a 50% reduction in nighttime lighting across the island.

Recent reports, citing a U.S. State Department official, allege that Cuba received approximately 70,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude between late 2024 and 2025, and then re-exported around 40,000 barrels per day (60%) to Asia using a “shadow fleet” of sanctioned tankers. This claim, if verified, suggests Cuba may be acting as a transit point for evading Venezuelan sanctions, rather than consuming the oil domestically. However, the single source and political context of this information warrant caution.