The Growing Shadow of Dependence: Russia’s Alignment with China
During his recentโข visit to China, Putin secured a crucial agreement for the “Sila Siberi 2″ pipeline, a lifeline โฃforโข Gazprom and a testament to Moscow’s increasing reliance on Beijing. Coupled withโค a temporary,one-year visa-free regime for Russianโ citizens โขtraveling to China,this โmove represents a important effort โby China to cultivate a positive image โคwithin Russia andโ exertโค influence over public consciousness.
However, โฃMoscow’s response to theโค visa-free โoffer has been hesitant. The Kremlin appears wary of a potential influx of โฃChinese citizens intoโฃ the Far East and โSiberia, a concern rooted โฃin historicalโ territorial disputes. โขDespite the official โdemarcation ofโ the Russia-China border in 2005, some โChinese textbooks โcontinue to depict regions like Primorsky Krai as historically belonging to China, fuelingโ underlying anxieties.
The implementation of this visa-freeโฃ regime isโฃ a test. โคShould it prove successful, Moscow โwill be compelled to reciprocate, further solidifying Russia’s trajectory away from the West and towards a deepening dependence on China. This dependence will manifest in all spheres – business,technology,tourism – steadily reshaping both the Russian regimeโข and โขRussian โขsociety.
While friendly relationsโ with neighbors are generally desirable,โค the nature of theโข current neighbor is critical. China is governed by aโค brutal dictatorship, characterized by concentration camps, preparations forโฃ potential conflict over Taiwan, andโ a neo-colonial policy in the Global Southโ and the post-Sovietโ space. โ remarkably, many Russians appear โindifferent to theโข fate of democracy within their own country and remain focused โon framing the conflict in Ukraine as an external aggression, making them susceptible to a positive narrative surrounding China.State-sponsored sociologists in Russia already claim this narrativeโข is firmly established.
The survival of both the Russian and Chineseโฃ regimes hinges on remarkably โฃsimilar strategies: pervasive propaganda, the projection of state โpower, repression ofโ dissent, and the manipulation โ- โขand intimidation – of the โinternational community.
Currently, Russia is the โคjuniorโ partner in this โคrelationship, increasingly beholden toโ China. This dependence willโข inevitablyโค extend beyond the economic realm and into the military and political spheres.โ A future scenario could see Beijing leveraging โฃRussia’s support, perhaps even demanding a diversionโฃ of Western attention towards a potential provocation against NATO should china โdecide to pursue its stated goalโฃ of โ”reunifying” with Taiwan.
While this outcome โisn’t guaranteed, Putin’s current embrace of the Chinese regime carries the potential for long-term, and potentially detrimental, consequences for Russia – consequences that will be โfelt across military, political, economic, โand psychological landscapes.This commentary reflects the author’s personal โคopinion.