The Growing Shadow of Dependence: Russia’s Alignment with China
During his recent visit to China, Putin secured a crucial agreement for the “Sila Siberi 2″ pipeline, a lifeline for Gazprom and a testament to Moscow’s increasing reliance on Beijing. Coupled with a temporary,one-year visa-free regime for Russian citizens traveling to China,this move represents a important effort by China to cultivate a positive image within Russia and exert influence over public consciousness.
However, Moscow’s response to the visa-free offer has been hesitant. The Kremlin appears wary of a potential influx of Chinese citizens into the Far East and Siberia, a concern rooted in historical territorial disputes. Despite the official demarcation of the Russia-China border in 2005, some Chinese textbooks continue to depict regions like Primorsky Krai as historically belonging to China, fueling underlying anxieties.
The implementation of this visa-free regime is a test. Should it prove successful, Moscow will be compelled to reciprocate, further solidifying Russia’s trajectory away from the West and towards a deepening dependence on China. This dependence will manifest in all spheres – business,technology,tourism – steadily reshaping both the Russian regime and Russian society.
While friendly relations with neighbors are generally desirable, the nature of the current neighbor is critical. China is governed by a brutal dictatorship, characterized by concentration camps, preparations for potential conflict over Taiwan, and a neo-colonial policy in the Global South and the post-Soviet space. remarkably, many Russians appear indifferent to the fate of democracy within their own country and remain focused on framing the conflict in Ukraine as an external aggression, making them susceptible to a positive narrative surrounding China.State-sponsored sociologists in Russia already claim this narrative is firmly established.
The survival of both the Russian and Chinese regimes hinges on remarkably similar strategies: pervasive propaganda, the projection of state power, repression of dissent, and the manipulation - and intimidation – of the international community.
Currently, Russia is the junior partner in this relationship, increasingly beholden to China. This dependence will inevitably extend beyond the economic realm and into the military and political spheres. A future scenario could see Beijing leveraging Russia’s support, perhaps even demanding a diversion of Western attention towards a potential provocation against NATO should china decide to pursue its stated goal of ”reunifying” with Taiwan.
While this outcome isn’t guaranteed, Putin’s current embrace of the Chinese regime carries the potential for long-term, and potentially detrimental, consequences for Russia – consequences that will be felt across military, political, economic, and psychological landscapes.This commentary reflects the author’s personal opinion.