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Wen Tao, China Logistics Information Center

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June 2023 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics was 49%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the economic operation has stabilized. The changes in the sub-indexes show that the decline in market demand has slowed down, the production of enterprises has increased steadily, the market supply and demand have improved, the destocking of raw materials and finished products has continued to advance, and market prices have stabilized. The current economic issue that needs attention is that enterprises still have a strong sense of insufficient market demand, and the operation of small enterprises is accelerating and slowing down.

The decline in market demand slowed down. In June, the recovery momentum of my country’s economy began to stabilize after experiencing a continuous slowdown in April and May, and the decline in market demand slowed down. The new orders index was 48.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending the downward trend for three consecutive months. From the perspective of industry structure, the accelerated growth of demand for new kinetic energy is more prominent. The new order indexes of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are 51.9% and 51.7%, respectively, up 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and have remained at the same level since the beginning of this year. expansion range. The new orders index of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was 51.4 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but remained above 51 percent, indicating that the demand for consumer goods continued to rise.

The production of enterprises increased steadily. In June, the stabilization of the demand side led to an increase in the production motivation of enterprises, and the production activities increased steadily. The production index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the first half of the month, and returned to the expansion range after briefly falling below 50%. The production index in June was 1.7 percentage points higher than the new order index. An important reason is that the backlog of orders has a certain supporting effect on the stable production of enterprises when the new orders of enterprises are relatively tight. The backlog of orders index was 45.2%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, falling for 4 consecutive months. In terms of different industries, the production recovery of new kinetic energy is particularly obvious. The production indexes of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are 53.8% and 53.2%, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The backlog orders of the two industries are respectively The decrease of 2.1 and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month shows that the new kinetic energy industry has accelerated the completion of the backlog of orders in the previous period, and the rapid growth of production has been further driven by the accelerated release of demand. The production index of the basic raw material industry was 46.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the production of basic raw materials has stabilized. The production index of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was 53%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the production of consumer goods increased rapidly. On the whole, the current recovery momentum of the production side is good, and the market supply guarantee is stable.

Destocking continues to advance. In June, the consumption of raw materials and finished goods inventories in the manufacturing industry accelerated. In terms of finished product inventory, the stabilization of market demand drove the accelerated recovery of corporate sales activities. The finished product inventory index was 46.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and fell for four consecutive months. In terms of raw material inventory, as enterprises tend to be cautious about the market outlook, their willingness to purchase raw materials has declined. In order to ensure stable production, enterprises have increased their consumption of raw materials in stock. The raw material inventory index was 47.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. 4 months down. The purchase volume index was 48.9 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Under the circumstances of the recovery of enterprise production, the purchase volume continued to decline. The production and business activity expectation index was 53.4 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and a decline for four consecutive months. Taken together, the current destocking work of enterprises continues to advance, and the inventory at both ends of production and sales is declining at an accelerated rate.

Market prices have stabilized. In June, although the purchase volume of raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to tighten, the price of raw materials stabilized. The purchase price index was 45%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the three consecutive months of decline. Driven by the stabilization of raw material prices and the slowdown in the decline in market demand, product sales prices have stabilized accordingly. The ex-factory price index was 43.9%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, which also ended the three consecutive months of decline. In terms of industries, the prices of basic raw material products stabilized. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of the basic raw material industry were 40.5% and 38.5%, respectively, an increase of 6.7 and 6 percentage points from the previous month. The stabilization of the prices of basic raw materials was also transmitted downstream. The purchase price indexes of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing were 47.2%, 50.2% and 48.6%, respectively, up 3.2, 1.5 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. However, the sales prices of these three major industries were relatively stable overall. The ex-factory price index of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing was 47.8% and 46.4% respectively, both of which rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The ex-factory price index of high-tech manufacturing was 48.8%. , the same as last month. On the whole, the price decline of basic raw materials slowed down in June, which led to the stabilization of prices in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

The current economic issues that need to be paid attention to are: First, enterprises still have a strong sense of insufficient market demand, especially the continuous contraction of foreign demand. According to the enterprise survey, the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand in June was 61.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, setting a new historical record again. The new export order index was 46.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it has declined for 4 consecutive months, showing that exports continue to shrink, which is an important factor leading to insufficient demand.

Second, the operation of small enterprises has accelerated and slowed down, and the pressure on the private economy has continued to increase. In June, the PMI of large enterprises and PMI of medium-sized enterprises were 50.3% and 48.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.3 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the PMI of small enterprises was 46.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling for 4 consecutive months. The production index and new order index were 45.7% and 44% respectively, both down more than 2 percentage points from the previous month, and the contraction of supply and demand of small enterprises accelerated. The private economy is the main body of small enterprises, and the operation of small enterprises has accelerated and slowed down, indicating that the pressure on the private economy continues to increase.

2023-06-30 01:30:03
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