German Climate Policy Under Fire as COP30 Looms
As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, this week for a climate summit ahead of the official COP30 conference, concerns are mounting over Germany‘s diminishing commitment to enterprising climate action. The summit, marking the 30th anniversary of the UN climate negotiations and a decade as the landmark Paris agreement, arrives at a critical juncture, but observers are pessimistic about the influence of German leadership.
According to Robert Banaszak, a leading climate policy analyst, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s rhetoric about future generations rings hollow given the current trajectory of his government’s policies. banaszak argues the administration missed a crucial opportunity to build consensus for a strong EU climate policy before arriving at the global conference, thereby undermining Germany’s credibility. He directly blames Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative CDU/CSU, for actively dismantling climate initiatives.
“If we slack off,everyone will slack off,” Banaszak warned,emphasizing the potential for a domino effect if Germany weakens its stance. He fears a “great disappointment” in the negotiations, which centre on the future implementation of the paris Agreement. He points to internal questioning of Germany’s climate goals and Merz’s obstruction of ambitious 2040 interim targets within the EU, as well as efforts to disrupt the emissions trading system, as evidence of this diminished ambition.
Recent EU agreement on CO2 reduction targets, reached only after intense last-minute negotiations, further illustrates the problem. Banaszak criticizes the compromise allowing EU states to offset up to five percent of their climate targets with possibly unreliable carbon credits from outside Europe – a loophole he estimates represents over 100 billion euros in lost investment within the EU.
This shift marks a dramatic change in Germany’s role in Europe, according to Banaszak. “Germany has therefore gone from being a driver of an ambitious European climate policy to a blocker,” he stated, weakening the EU’s negotiating position at COP30.This is compounded by Germany’s own failure to fully fund its international climate finance commitments, signaling a lack of seriousness that other nations are likely to mirror.
Even the presence of Carsten Schneider, Germany’s chief negotiator and environment minister, offers little reassurance. Banaszak calls for the Social Democrats (SPD) to demonstrate stronger resistance to the conservative bloc’s climate rollbacks.
The ongoing debate surrounding the potential easing of the EU-wide ban on combustion engines is especially concerning. banaszak views this not as a specific policy issue, but as a “lever” to dismantle European climate policy altogether and reopen negotiations. He warns that the political landscape has shifted since the passage of the Green Deal, and a weakening of the combustion engine ban could ultimately jeopardize the transition to electromobility and threaten jobs in the German automotive industry.
The stakes are high as COP30 begins, and the shadow of Germany’s wavering commitment looms large over the proceedings.