Summary of the Article: Xu’s Stand and its Implications for Xi Jinping and the PLA
This article by Joseph torigian analyzes the case of Xu Qinxian, a Chinese general who hesitated to carry out orders during the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and its relevance to understanding the current leadership of Xi Jinping and the PeopleS Liberation Army (PLA).
Key Points:
* Xu’s Hesitation: Xu, commander of the 38th Group Army, delayed implementing martial law, potentially hoping to give the leadership pause on the decision. His actions were risky, potentially insubordinate, and created disruption during a critical time.
* The Puzzle of 1989: The article highlights the surprising fact that despite widespread opposition within the military and party to the use of violence against protesters, Deng Xiaoping was able to enforce the crackdown.This was due to the inherent structure of the Leninist system, which prioritizes centralized power and obedience to the core leader.
* Political Messaging over Justice: punishment within the CCP isn’t about the act itself, but about sending a political message and preventing future dissent. Xu was made an example of to discourage similar behavior.
* Xi jinping’s Concerns: Xi jinping is deeply concerned with preventing a repeat of events like Tiananmen and the collapse of the Soviet Union. He believes the Soviet Union fell as of a loss of ideological control and the “nationalization” of the military (i.e., losing party control).
* Absolute Party Control of the Military: Xi is focused on ensuring the PLA remains absolutely loyal to the CCP, through ideological indoctrination and suppression of any independent thought.He views even minor mistakes as potential ideological problems.
* preventing Future Protests: Xi is proactively expanding party control at the grassroots level to prevent protests from happening in the first place. He would likely act more decisively than Deng in a similar crisis.
* The Question for the Future: The article concludes by posing crucial questions about the PLA’s loyalty to Xi. Would the military unquestioningly follow orders, especially in a high-stakes situation like a conflict over Taiwan? Would Xu’s example inspire bravery or serve as a warning? The newly released video of Xu’s trial could play a role in shaping commanders’ calculations.
In essence, the article uses the past case of Xu Qinxian to explore the dynamics of power, loyalty, and risk within the Chinese Communist Party and the PLA, and to assess the potential for similar challenges to arise under Xi Jinping’s leadership. It suggests that while Xi is taking steps to prevent dissent, the underlying tensions and potential for independent action within the military remain a notable factor in China’s future stability.
