Former CIA Station Chief on the โคTrumpโ Administration’s Caribbean Strategy – The Cipher Brief
Theโ Cipher Brief recently hosted a โdiscussion featuring former CIA Station โChiefโฃ Dave Fitzgerald, offering insights into the evolving security โlandscape in Venezuela and the Caribbean. The conversation, led by Kelly, touched on potential scenarios surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolรกs Maduro and the impact of recent counter-narcotics operations.
responding to a questionโค from NBC Reporter Dan DeLuce regarding โthe potential for Maduro to โseek exile, Fitzgerald stated that any departure wouldโค likely involve a significant exodus of Maduro’s inner circle. “He wouldn’t be the only one on the plane,” Fitzgerald explained. “He would be โฃjoined by his wife, probably half of the โgeneral staff andโ anybody else who could get onโ that plane. They will all understand that if he goes, โthey go and that they’re going to โbe left to theโฃ hoards to try and figure out their survival.” He assessed that Maduro is seriously considering โthisโฃ “plan B” due to a lack of reliable internationalโฃ support. โ”Militarily, he understands the Russians โฃare not going โขto come to his assistance.โข The Chinese look at this asโค a transactional relationship with Venezuela. They โฃare making money off Venezuela’s oil and the loans โคthey provide. They just want to be paid back.”
The discussion also addressed the effectiveness โof recent strikes against vessels involved in drugโข trafficking. Fitzgerald highlightedโข a dual impact: psychological and operational. While acknowledging the Coast Guard’s decades-long efforts in intercepting drugs,โ he suggested the actual impact โon the flow ofโ narcotics – to destinations like the Dominican Republic -โ is “minimalโฆa drop โin the bucket.”โค however, he emphasized โฃthe significant psychological effect on those involved in the trafficking operations. “I doubt there’s very few volunteers โor crewmen,both from Venezuela and โขfrom Colombia,who are happy โขabout getting on some of these fastboatsโ or the submersibles to crew โคthem out to โthe โฃCaribbean.”
Fitzgerald predictedโข a โฃlikely shift in trafficking routes, โฃmirroring a decades-long โคpattern. “This situation isโ kind of aโ pendulum and it’s been likeโฃ this for โขdecades. The US and ourโ allies would focus on the Caribbean. They’dโข switch to โthe Pacific. We’d focus on the Pacific. They go back to the Caribbean. they would โjustโ change their routes, change their way of working ofโ how they traffic drugs.”
The Cipher Brief encourages readers to subscribe to theirโข Nightcap newsletter โfor dailyโ updates on national โคand global security issuesโฃ (https://www.thecipherbrief.com/subscribe) and to explore their digital channel on YouTubeโ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV_DhOZPmrM). โThe Cipher Brief’s website (http://www.thecipherbrief.com/) โoffers further expert analysis on national security matters.
