Former CIA Station Chief on the Trump Administration’s Caribbean Strategy – The Cipher Brief
The Cipher Brief recently hosted a discussion featuring former CIA Station Chief Dave Fitzgerald, offering insights into the evolving security landscape in Venezuela and the Caribbean. The conversation, led by Kelly, touched on potential scenarios surrounding Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the impact of recent counter-narcotics operations.
responding to a question from NBC Reporter Dan DeLuce regarding the potential for Maduro to seek exile, Fitzgerald stated that any departure would likely involve a significant exodus of Maduro’s inner circle. “He wouldn’t be the only one on the plane,” Fitzgerald explained. “He would be joined by his wife, probably half of the general staff and anybody else who could get on that plane. They will all understand that if he goes, they go and that they’re going to be left to the hoards to try and figure out their survival.” He assessed that Maduro is seriously considering this “plan B” due to a lack of reliable international support. ”Militarily, he understands the Russians are not going to come to his assistance. The Chinese look at this as a transactional relationship with Venezuela. They are making money off Venezuela’s oil and the loans they provide. They just want to be paid back.”
The discussion also addressed the effectiveness of recent strikes against vessels involved in drug trafficking. Fitzgerald highlighted a dual impact: psychological and operational. While acknowledging the Coast Guard’s decades-long efforts in intercepting drugs, he suggested the actual impact on the flow of narcotics – to destinations like the Dominican Republic - is “minimal…a drop in the bucket.” however, he emphasized the significant psychological effect on those involved in the trafficking operations. “I doubt there’s very few volunteers or crewmen,both from Venezuela and from Colombia,who are happy about getting on some of these fastboats or the submersibles to crew them out to the Caribbean.”
Fitzgerald predicted a likely shift in trafficking routes, mirroring a decades-long pattern. “This situation is kind of a pendulum and it’s been like this for decades. The US and our allies would focus on the Caribbean. They’d switch to the Pacific. We’d focus on the Pacific. They go back to the Caribbean. they would just change their routes, change their way of working of how they traffic drugs.”
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