CDU leader Friedrich Merz has secured a key concession from the Green party regarding a substantial debt package, potentially clearing a path for a coalition government in Germany. The agreement, reached after days of intense negotiation, centers on a €100 billion climate protection fund, a sticking point that had threatened to derail talks.
The compromise comes as recent polling data suggests a narrow majority for a CDU-Green coalition in the state of Baden-Württemberg, though experts caution that forming a stable government will be challenging. A survey of political scientists, known as the “Länder Expert Survey,” reveals that the policy positions of the two parties align on only 57 percent of issues. This places them closer ideologically to the far-right AfD party than to each other, despite the CDU’s firm rejection of any cooperation with the AfD.
According to the survey, the most compatible coalition option – a three-party alliance of Greens, SPD and the Left party – lacks a parliamentary majority. A traditional center-right coalition of CDU and FDP, or a center-left alliance of SPD and Greens, likewise fall short of a governing majority. Despite significant ideological overlap, the CDU has ruled out any collaboration with the AfD, echoing similar decisions made in the past, such as the exclusion of the “Republikaner” party in 1992 due to concerns over populism and its stance on the political system.
While Merz has expressed satisfaction with the climate fund agreement, internal divisions within the CDU remain a concern. In November, Merz characterized a coalition without the Greens as a “higher-ranking alternative,” signaling a preference for other options. The survey indicates that the SPD would be more willing to compromise with the Greens on issues like phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles and tightening migration rules, while facing greater friction with the CDU on education policy and the size of the state.
Mannheim-based political scientist Marc Debus, who accurately predicted the formation of the current “traffic light” coalition government at the federal level, assesses the circumstances for a renewed CDU-Green partnership as “not optimal.” Debus notes that both parties are hesitant about continuing the alliance, and that negotiations would likely be protracted and internally contentious within the CDU due to the limited policy overlap.
The “Länder Expert Survey” also highlights a broader trend of conservative shifts within the state-level parties across the political spectrum in Baden-Württemberg. The SPD and Greens have moved towards the center, while the FDP and AfD have drifted further to the right, both economically and socially. This contrasts with the positions of their federal counterparts.
Researchers have developed a “Party Check” tool, based on the survey data, to help voters assess the compatibility of their views with each party’s platform. This tool offers an alternative to the widely used “Wahl-O-Mat” with a more rigorous scientific basis. The survey also underscores the importance of personal relationships and stylistic compatibility between potential coalition partners, alongside policy alignment.
Despite the challenges, Debus emphasizes that coalition formation often requires difficult compromises, particularly in the current political landscape characterized by the rise of populist parties on both the left and right. He suggests that forging alliances in the center will be a “mühsam” (laborious) process, a prediction that appears likely to hold true in the wake of the March 8th election, regardless of which parties ultimately enter negotiations.