Source: Newspaper
Writer: Mounir Al-Rabie
books Mounir Al Rabie in Kuwaiti newspaperYesterday witnessed an increase in the level of Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, as the Israeli army carried out military aircraft raids along the border, and this was accompanied by intense flights of military aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft in Lebanese airspace from south to north and along the coast all the way to the Bekaa.
Israel is trying to change the rules of the game, especially in terms of the targets it is working to strike in order to benefit from continued Western support, especially American support. It wants to point out that Hezbollah represents a fundamental threat to it, at a time when many experts believe that Tel Aviv cannot be satisfied with the security and military equation. New, which now controls the border with Lebanon.
As political and diplomatic movements continue to search for how to avoid escalation and restore calm, especially in light of what is being raised about the implementation of Resolution 1701 or other scenarios, the atmosphere is still conflicting about what the Israelis will do, and there are those who still express serious fear of Tel Aviv seeking refuge, perhaps. After the ceasefire in Gaza, a widespread and effective war against Hezbollah will establish a new equation on the borders.
Another goal that Israel seeks to achieve in light of information that it is targeting Hezbollah sites or weapons depots. The Israeli army deliberately announces the targeting of headquarters, command centers, or missile launching areas to convey the message that Israel has complete information about the locations where Hezbollah stores its missiles, and that it is working to target them in order to effectively enforce Resolution 1701.
The targeting operations include clear messages to the party that it must withdraw these weapons to the north of the Litani River, and that if they remain, they will be a target for bombing.
This means, in one way or another, that what is taking place is a kind of negotiation by fire, but it remains fraught with risks in the event of any error in the calculations or coordinates. This is happening in light of the United States’ efforts to separate the path of the Lebanese front from the Palestinian one, and this is what the American envoy Amos Hockstein focused on during his visit to Beirut, where he stressed the need for Lebanon and Hezbollah not to slide into a wide war with Israel, to preserve the gains of maritime demarcation and its subsequent withdrawal on land demarcation. After the ceasefire in Gaza.
Here, the Iranian focus will be in contrast to the ideas being circulated regarding the implementation of Resolution 1701, especially the scenario stipulating Israel’s withdrawal from the 13 disputed points, and perhaps the deployment of international forces in the Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shuba Hills until an agreement is reached between Lebanon, Syria, and Israel.
During a visit to Beirut two years ago, CIA Director William Burns proposed dividing the farms equally between Israel, Syria, and Lebanon. Reaching such arrangements means practically ending all outstanding issues between Lebanon and Israel, and although this allows Hezbollah to reduce its presence on the border, and this is what Tel Aviv and Washington are demanding, it also raises question marks about the justifications for the party continuing to keep its weapons.
Therefore, arrangements of this kind require a comprehensive deal with Iran that includes the area extending between Lebanon and Syria. Here, the many visits made by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian to Beirut and Damascus, which amounted to 6 visits within less than a year, cannot be overlooked.
2023-12-10 21:13:06
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