Bank of Mexico

Mexico City. The current account of the balance of payments – which reflects the operations carried out by the country abroad, including inflows and outflows, such as remittances, debt payments, among others – observed a surplus of 3,639 million dollars in the second quarter of 2024, according to data released this Friday by the Bank of Mexico (BdeM).

The surplus observed in April-June of this year was higher than the 2.106 billion dollars reported in the same period last year.

This behavior was explained by decreases in the deficits of the services and oil merchandise balances, behavior that was partially offset by a lower balance of non-oil merchandise.

As a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), the current account surplus observed in the second quarter of 2024 stood at 0.7 percent, a figure that is higher than the surplus reported in April-June 2023, which was 0.5 percent of GDP.

This is the first positive result so far this year, as the balance of payments showed a deficit of 21.374 billion dollars in the first quarter.

The BdeM recorded a surplus in the three previous periods, although at the end of 2023 the deficit was 5,477 million dollars.

The institution commented that during the reference period, global economic activity expanded at a slower pace than in the first quarter of the year. It pointed out that although the performance was heterogeneous, in emerging economies it was lower, in contrast to the dynamism observed in the first quarter.

On the other hand, the BdeM confirmed that at the end of the first half of the year, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico amounted to 31,096 million dollars.

According to the Ministry of Economy (SE), the figure for January-June 2024 is 7 percent higher than that observed in the same period in 2023, which was 20,041 million dollars.

Data from the institution show that in the second quarter, foreign capital from new investments amounted to 264 million dollars, which added to the 645 million dollars reported in the first half of the year, gives a total of 909 million dollars in January-June.

Reinvestments by companies already established in the country totaled 3.219 billion dollars, so when adding the 27.069 billion dollars registered in January-March, the total at the end of the first quarter is 30.288 billion dollars.

Intercompany account investment stood at $1.598 billion, after having contracted by $1.698 billion in the first quarter of the year.

In the second quarter of 2024, an outflow of 8,233 million dollars was observed according to the portfolio investment line.

This is happening after 8.647 billion dollars did not leave in January-March. With the data from April-June 2024, this type of investment, known as hot money, has left in 16 of 21 quarters.

This is the largest capital outflow since the third quarter of 2023, which was $7.725 billion. However, it is lower than that reported in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.

Mexico City. The autonomy of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) is not at risk with the arrival of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo to the presidency of the Republic, assured Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath Constable.

“I don’t think that with this change in administration there will be a change in perception of the work that the bank has done,” said the economist while participating in a forum organized by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF).

Heath Constable said the institution’s autonomy was well protected and insulated from many pressures, as the federal administration had understood the role it played.

“The government itself realized the importance of maintaining autonomy and that there are many more benefits than if they tried to change it or modify it, etc.,” he said.

He commented that when the central bank lacked autonomy, inflationary outbreaks reached triple digits.

“In another era, if inflation had dropped to 8.7 percent, we would be celebrating. The size of the problem has changed radically,” he said.

Heath Constable commented that the institution is not losing credibility, as it is one of the most solid that exist in the country.

“There is no one that can boast of its solidity, its history, its trajectory, its human capital. We have the best economists and financiers in the country and I believe that it is an extremely solid institution of which we can be extremely proud, especially this year when we celebrate 30 years of autonomy and next year when we will celebrate 100 years of the existence of the central bank,” he said.

The deputy governor commented that factors such as insecurity in the country and natural events such as drought are more structural effects that put pressure on prices.

“We are seeing these types of climatological issues, more droughts, more floods, in crescendo, that is, we are seeing more and more of them,”

“This problem of extortion has also been growing, the security problem has also been growing,” he said.

He considered that for this reason there will be an effect on prices, which will happen more and more frequently. “We could already talk about more structural effects and not just temporary ones, when we have problems of lack of security and extortion and everything that has to be combated,” he said.