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ASX Data, Economic Calendar: Jobs, CPI, China GDP & Miner Updates

by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor
written by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor

Here’s a breakdown of the economic data and company updates mentioned in the text:

Local Data (Australia):

Tuesday:
 Consumer confidence (July)
Overseas arrivals/departures (May)
 Wednesday:
Building activity (Q2)
 Thursday:
Labour force (June) – Key local data set

International Data:

China:
Monday: International trade (June)
 Tuesday: GDP (Q2), retail sales, industrial production, infrastructure investment (June)
United States:
 Tuesday: CPI (June) – Most important international release
Wednesday: Producer prices (June), industrial production (June)
 Thursday: Retail sales (June), house prices (July)
Friday: housing starts (June), consumer sentiment (July)

Company Updates (Australia):

Wednesday:
Evolution Mining (quarterly production update)
 Thursday:
Aloca (quarterly production update)
 Santos (quarterly production update)
yancoal (quarterly production update)
 Friday:
BHP (quarterly production update)
 Not specified day, but mentioned:
Rio Tinto (quarterly production update)

Key Takeaways:

The June jobs and unemployment data for Australia is the most important local release this week.
The US CPI data is the most critically important international release.
 Several major Australian mining companies will be releasing their quarterly production and sales updates.
* China will release a significant amount of economic data, including Q2 GDP.

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Business

Markets live updates: Reserve Bank expected to cut interest rates for third time in 2025, ASX to fall after Wall Street tumbles

by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor
written by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor

๐Ÿ’ฌHow are you feeling about a potential rate cut?

Table of Contents

We’re keen to hear from you about your experience โ€” share your view in the comments and we’ll get the conversation going.

Are you hanging out to reduce your home loan repayments? Or will you bank the savings?

Are you a renter hoping your landlord might be prompted to give you a reprieve?

Are you a saver not looking forward to a lower deposit rate? Or someone relying on interest income?

Are you a would-be home buyer hoping to see your borrowing capacity increase? Or worried it could fuel further house price rises?

Hit the comment button above โฌ†๏ธ

Qantas ‘contacted by potential cybercriminal’

Qantas says it has been contacted by “a potential cybercriminal”, less than a week after the data of up to 6 million of its customers was accessed in an online attack.

The airline says it is working to verify the legitimacy of the contact and has engaged the Australian Federal Police to investigate.

Qantas continues to say it is working with “specialist cybersecurity experts” to analyse systems impacted in the breach and to protect customer information.

Read more from Luke Cooper.

ICYMI: Alan Kohler’s Finance Report

Why house prices are tipped to keep rising

The Reserve Bank‘s Monetary Policy Board is meeting to decide on interest rates. It is widely expected to cut the cash rate to 3.6 per cent, saving a typical mortgage borrower hundreds of dollars a year.

While it’s welcome news for millions of borrowers, it’s a double-edged sword for first home buyers with property prices tipped to pick up further as a result.

Economists say lower inflation and a sluggish economy support the case for the RBA to lower the cash rate. Cotality’s head of research Australia, Eliza Owen, says since rates started to decline, home values in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth have risen by more than 2 per cent.

Property prices, she said, could go higher as interest rates fall. She says a reduction in interest rates is like a price cut on the cost of debt, as it increases the maximum people can borrow for mortgages, which usually pushes property values higher.

Two more rate cuts expected in 2025, says CBA chief economist

While some economists are forecasting as many as four more cuts this interest rate cycle, Commonwealth Bank chief economist Luke Yeaman says the Reserve Bank will cut rates just two more times – on July 8 and August 12.

He tells The Business host Kirsten Aiken he thinks the RBA will want to see how the economy plays out over the next six to 12 months before making another move. Mr Yeaman says rate cuts could add to the momentum that’s already been seen in house price growth.

The RBA’s interest rate decision will come just one day before US President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline, and Mr Yeaman says to date, Australia has been very well insulated from the broader shocks.

However, he says tariff wars could have some impact on the investment climate and possibly the consumer, but doesn’t think it’s going to derail the economic recovery in Australia over the course of the next year.

He says the CBA will be watching closely to see how consumers and businesses react to tariff changes, but also for any more deterioration of the US economy, which will affect Australia’s biggest trading partner China.

How has the RBA’s cash rate been tracking?

Bets are for a 0.25 percentage point cut this afternoon โ€” that would take it from 3.85 per cent (its first time below 4 per cent in two years), to 3.6 per cent.

The last time the cash rate sat at 3.6 per cent was in April 2023.

This chart tells the story:

Musk’s political plan hits Tesla

Tesla shares sank overnight after CEO Elon Musk said he was forming a new US political party.

The S&P 500’s biggest drag came from shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla, which dived 6.8% to $US293.94 a share, after Mr Musk announced formation of a new political party named the “America Party“, further escalating his feud with Trump.

It was Tesla’s biggest daily slide since June 5, and its lowest closing level since that session.

with Reuters

The countdown is on: RBA decision to be delivered at 2:30pm AEST

Set your clocks! Or don’t, just hang here through the day โ€” as well as our usual markets and business news updates, we’ll be bringing you comprehensive coverage of the Reserve Bank board’s latest interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEST today.

That’ll be across all platforms, including here on the blog and on ABC News Channel.

Wall Street knocked lower by tariff jitters

Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply lower on Monday, after US President Donald Trump announced hefty tariffs against Japan, South Korea and other trading partners.

Indexes added to losses after Trump announced the tariff rates against Japanese and South Korean imports, due to take effect on August 1.

Stocks wobbled further in the late afternoon when he announced hefty tariffs on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar.

Last week, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 ended three sessions with record high closes. The latest record finishes came on Thursday after a robust jobs report.

“Markets had been telling us that peak tariff risk is behind us, but to have tariffs back in the forefront is causing some skittishness,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments in Boston.

“Investors were getting to that period of ebullience in markets and we’re taking a little step back from that.”

But investors likely have some hopes the announcements are not permanent, she said: “That’s the pattern we’ve been in, announcing punitive tariffs and then dialing that back a little bit. That could certainly be the next phase of this back and forth negotiation.”

Investors also awaited other US trade announcements after Trump said on Sunday that the US was on the cusp of several deals and would notify other countries of higher tariffs by July 9, with new duties to take effect on August 1.

On Monday, Trump threatened an extra 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

With Reuters

ASX to fall

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday’s markets live blog, where we’ll bring you the latest price action and news on the ASX and beyond.

A tumble on Wall Street overnight sets the tone for local market action today.

The Dow Jones index dropped 0.9 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 0.8 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9 per cent.

ASX futures were down 49 points or 0.5 per cent to 8,524 at 7:00am AEST.

At the same time, the Australian dollar was up 0.1 per cent to 64.93 US cents.

Brent crude oil was up 1.8 per cent, trading at $US69.56 a barrel.

Spot gold was flat at $US3,336.31.

Iron ore lost 0.6 per cent to $US95.25 a tonne.

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Business

ASX closes lower but volatility to continue amid tariff uncertainties โ€” as it happened

by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor
written by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor

Markets React to Economic Shifts, US Dollar Dips

Global markets showed mixed reactions today amid shifting economic signals, including concerns about US debt and trade uncertainties. These movements follow a week of volatility, with investors closely watching developments in the Middle East and economic policy decisions worldwide.

Market Snapshot

The Australian stock market closed 0.4 percent lower at 8,514.2 points. Conversely, the Nikkei increased by 1.6 percent to 40,197 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 6,141 points, and the Nasdaq saw a 1 percent increase, reaching 20,167 points.

Superannuation Gender Gap Addressed

New data highlights that women retire with significantly less superannuation than men. This disparity widens during the years women take time off work to raise children. However, a recent change means superannuation will be paid on parental leave starting in July, which is a historic achievement.

Image depicting the superannuation gender gap.

This change aims to tackle retirement inequity and improve financial outcomes for women.

Middle East Tensions Ease, Oil Prices Fall

The recent Middle East oil crisis has subsided for now, causing oil prices to fall and shares to rise to near-record highs. According to Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, the situation stabilized after Iran’s response was viewed as symbolic.

โ€œOil supply is key when it comes to conflict in the Middle East.”

โ€”Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist

US Dollar’s Decline

The US dollar continues to struggle, hitting its lowest level since March 2022. Several factors contribute to this decline, including the strong inverse relationship between the S&P 500 and the US dollar, uncertainty regarding Fed leadership, and concerns over US growth.

โ€œThe US dollar Index (DXY) put in a daily close below its June 12 low of 97.61, with price trading to a low of 97.01, the weakest level since March 2022.”

โ€”Chris Weston, Market analyst from Pepperstone

The US dollar index has dropped 2.1 percent in June, marking its fifth consecutive monthly fall. Foreign investors are also reducing their exposure to the US. As of May 2024, the US debt held by foreign investors was approximately $7.9 trillion, indicating decreasing confidence in the US economic outlook (US Treasury).

Rental Income and ATO Statistics

ATO statistics show that 2.3 million Australians declared rental income in 2022-23. The majority of these landlords, about 71 percent, own only one investment property. The ATO released the statistics today.

The Productivity Roundtable

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has issued invitations to a small group of people to discuss solutions for the nation’s lagging productivity growth. The initial list of attendees includes representatives from various sectors, such as trade unions, business councils, and social services.

The Australian Dollar’s Rise

The Australian dollar is currently at its highest level this year, trading at 65.55 US cents. This strength is attributed to US dollar weakness and a rise in iron ore prices, Australia’s largest export commodity. This is the highest the Aussie has been since November 2024.

Tax Avoidance by High Earners

The Australia Institute analyzed ATO data, revealing that 91 individuals earning over a million dollars in 2022-23 paid no tax. They claimed around $390 million in deductions. The analysis showed these individuals claimed $62.8 million in deductions for accountant and lawyer fees.

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Business

ASX, CBA & RBA: Inflation Dive Sparks July Rate Cut Prediction

by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor
written by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor

Here’s a summary of the key points from the provided text:

CPI and RBA rate Cut: A reader suggests the RBA will be pressured to cut rates in July due to low CPI numbers. The author agrees, noting the risk of undershooting the inflation target and causing unnecessary economic hardship. They mention that market economists and the RBA are usually cautious about monthly CPI data, but the current figures are low enough to warrant concern. They also highlight that NAB’s Sally Auld already has a July rate cut as her base case.

Fuel Prices: A reader asks why diesel prices are already high despite recent oil price drops. The author explains that oil price changes take weeks to affect retail prices due to refining and shipping times. They also mention Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned fuel retailers against price gouging and has asked the ACCC to monitor prices.

Superannuation: The author notes that most people don’t check their superannuation often, but financial experts recommend being more observant.

Market Expectations for Rate Cut: Financial markets are pricing in an 88% chance of a July interest rate cut after weak inflation data. Though,only one of the four major banks (NAB) currently forecasts a July cut.

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Business

US Rates Held: Fed Cuts Growth Forecast, ASX Set to Fall

by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor
written by Priya Shah โ€“ Business Editor

Australian Property Prices Tipped to hit Record Highs in 2025-26

Table of Contents

Australian property prices are set to jump even higher in the coming year. This is more bad news for first home hopefuls, according to business reporter Gareth Hutchens.

Higher prices will help sellers boost profits from the sale of properties. They can capitalize on the current interest rate-cutting cycle.

Two new reports released today reflect the interests of two very different groups of people in Australia.

According to DomainS latest Price Forecast Report, Sydney and Melbourne prices will lead the charge in the next 12 months.

Nicola Powell,Domain’s chief of research and economics,says the forecast price rises will be a “reality check for many people.”

“if you’re trying to break into the property market, the next year could be your toughest challenge yet,” she warned.

Meanwhile,Cotality (formerly known as Acuity Ratings) has released its State of Owner-Occupier Housing Finance Report.

It found that mortgage stress is easing across the country.

Evergreen insights on the Australian Property Market

The Australian property market has historically been a strong performer.It is influenced by factors such as population growth, interest rates, and government policies.

Understanding these trends provides valuable context for current market conditions.

Frequently Asked Questions About Australian Property Prices

Why are Australian property prices expected to rise in 2025-2026?
Australian property prices are predicted to increase due to factors like interest rate cuts and high demand, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
Which Australian cities are expected to lead the property price increases?
Sydney and Melbourne are forecasted to experience the most significant property price growth in Australia over the next year.
how will rising property prices affect first home buyers in Australia?
Rising property prices will make it more challenging for first home buyers to enter the Australian property market.
What do experts say about the future of the Australian property market?
Experts warn that the next year could be the toughest yet for those trying to break into the Australian property market.
What is the impact of interest rate cuts on Australian property prices?
Interest rate cuts are expected to fuel further increases in Australian property prices, benefiting sellers but challenging buyers.
Are there any benefits to the rising Australian property market?
Higher property prices will allow sellers to capitalize on the current market and increase profits from property sales in Australia.

Disclaimer: This article provides general details about property market trends. It is indeed not financial advice. Consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.

What are your thoughts on the future of the Australian property market? Share your comments below and subscribe for more updates!

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