Lebanon Braces for Potential Conflict as Hezbollah Prepares, Sparking Displacement Fears

BEIRUT – Escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are fueling anxieties of widespread displacement in southern Lebanon, with both sides exchanging increasingly sharp rhetoric. Recent reports indicate Hezbollah is actively bolstering logistical capabilities across Lebanon, raising concerns about imminent conflict.The Jerusalem Institute for strategy and security (JISS) reports Hezbollah is establishing four logistical hubs in Minya, Batroun, Akkar, and Jubail – two of the latter located in predominantly Christian areas. These warehouses are being stocked with essential supplies, including blankets, brushes, and medical provisions, intended for distribution to Shiite communities in northeastern regions like Akkar (specifically Habishit and Qarah) and the Koura District (Habush, Banharran, and Zghara Al-Tawlad). Witnesses have observed numerous small trucks transporting these goods to the designated storage locations,signaling a broader preparation for potential hostilities.

Though, JISS notes uneven support for these efforts. Sunni-majority municipalities are reportedly hesitant to cooperate, while municipalities already burdened by hosting an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees – according to UNHCR data as of November 2023 – face logistical and resource constraints. This uneven support highlights existing sectarian tensions and the strain on LebanonS already fragile infrastructure.

Context: hezbollah’s Entrenched Position & Lebanon’s weakened State

The current escalation stems from Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm,a key demand from Israel and a long-standing point of contention. Hezbollah argues disarmament would leave its arsenal vulnerable to israeli seizure. This stance underscores the group’s deeply entrenched position within Lebanon, operating largely independently of the official state institutions.

Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Bekaa Valley, notably the Baalbek-Hermel region, is believed to house a significant portion of its missile arsenal, making it a prime target in any potential Israeli military operation. Intelligence assessments suggest Hezbollah possesses an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, manny of which are Iranian-supplied, capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory.

The group’s ability to operate with such autonomy underscores the weakness of the Lebanese state, which is grappling with a severe economic crisis, political paralysis, and a power vacuum following the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government in early 2024. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), while receiving US and international aid, are significantly outmatched by Hezbollah’s military capabilities and face challenges in maintaining security across the country.

Escalating Tensions & displacement Concerns

Rumors of an imminent Israeli military strike targeting Hezbollah assets in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and northern regions are circulating within shiite communities. This, coupled with the ongoing preparations, is driving fears of mass displacement. Southern Lebanon, historically a battleground in past conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah (most recently in 2006), is expected to bear the brunt of any future confrontation.The potential for large-scale displacement would exacerbate Lebanon’s existing humanitarian challenges and further destabilize the region. The 2006 war displaced approximately one million Lebanese citizens, and a similar scenario could overwhelm the country’s limited resources and infrastructure.Key Details Not in Original Article:

UNHCR Refugee Numbers: specific number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon (1.5 million as of Nov 2023).
Hezbollah Arsenal Estimate: Approximate size of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal (150,000 rockets/missiles).
Lebanese Political context: Mention of the recent resignation of Prime Minister Mikati and the resulting government paralysis.
LAF Capabilities: Acknowledgment of the Lebanese Armed Forces’ limitations compared to hezbollah.
* Past Displacement Figures: Reference to the scale of displacement during the 2006 war.

Breaking: Rising tensions in Lebanon are escalating ahead of a crucial government session, fueled by displays of armed support for Hezbollah in Beirut’s southern suburbs and warnings of potential street confrontations.

Context: Lebanon has long grappled wiht teh complex issue of armed groups operating outside state control, most notably Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military power. this situation is further intricate by a severe economic crisis and a fragile political landscape.

Recent reports indicate heightened visibility of Hezbollah supporters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, specifically Dahiyeh, openly displaying the party’s flags and riding motorcycles. Representative Nadim Al-Gemayel of the Kataeb party highlighted these displays on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), accompanied by video evidence. He issued a stark warning: if Lebanese security forces fail to address these perceived provocations before tomorrow’s government session, a cycle of street violence is certain.

Al-Gemayel’s statement underscores a growing concern that the presence of armed groups is challenging the authority of the state. He explicitly called for a firm response from security services to deter any attempts to intimidate or disrupt the government session.

Parallel to these developments, pro-Hezbollah media outlets have released a video showcasing weaponry, timed to coincide with the impending government meeting. This action is seen by many as a deliberate show of force.

Al-Nahar, a leading Lebanese newspaper, is providing live, minute-by-minute coverage of the government session and the surrounding atmosphere. The newspaper also published a special report titled “The weapon is the fighter of the state,” examining the role of armed groups in Lebanon. The report can be accessed here.

The government session is expected to address critical issues facing the nation, including the ongoing economic crisis, security concerns, and the upcoming presidential election. The timing of these displays of force raises questions about potential attempts to influence the outcome of the session.

Key figures involved include Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is leading the government session, and the leaders of Hezbollah, including Secretary-General Hassan nasrallah. The security situation is being closely monitored by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and internal security forces.