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Amid the escalation of tensions throughout the Middle East and the potential for the situation in the region to explode, Pakistan and Iran have launched strikes on each other’s territories in an unprecedented military escalation between the two neighbors. The two countries share a border extending about 900 kilometers, with the Pakistani province of Balochistan on the one hand, and the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan on the other. The two countries have long been fighting militants in the restive Baloch region along the border. Although the two countries are fighting a “common separatist enemy”, it is unusual for one of them to attack militants on the other’s territory.

Although the Pakistani-Iranian border has witnessed occasional outbreaks of violence in recent years, the mutual attacks between the two countries this week come amid growing concerns about the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East region in light of the continuing war between Israel and Hamas in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

Over the past week, the United States carried out several strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, in response to their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. At the same time, Iran attacked targets in Iraq and Syria.

But recent Iranian strikes targeted armed groups that primarily pose a local challenge and seek to achieve limited regional goals.

Pakistan said that its strikes in Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province targeted members of the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front, which consider themselves representatives of the Baloch community living in various parts of its territory, Iran and Afghanistan.

A map showing the Baloch areas in Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. © Graphic Studio France Média Monde

On the other hand, Iran confirmed on Tuesday that it had targeted members of the “Army of Justice” in Pakistan, the Sunni group that also considers itself a Baloch separatist group.

Who are the Baloch?

The province of Sistan-Baluchestan in southeastern Iran, and the Balochistan province in western Pakistan, are among the poorest regions in the two countries. Balochistan is home to the Baloch group, whose total number is estimated at ten million people, the majority of whom live in Pakistan, including the Sindh province, with several million in the country. Iran and a much smaller minority in Afghanistan.

The relationship between Iran and Pakistan has always been very strong since the latter was founded in 1948. Analysts believe that what unites them is much more than what divides them. However, the biggest problem historically, according to Fouad Ahmed, a journalist specializing in Pakistani affairs, is the Baloch ethnicity spread between the two countries, as the Baloch seek Pakistan, led by them. “Army of Justice” to liberate the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan, which explains their regular attacks for about 30 years, by raiding security forces stationed on the border.

On the other hand, the Baluchis stationed in Iran also launch attacks on the Pakistani province with the aim of liberating it.

Long-term conflict

The spark of the dispute began with Iran launching strikes on the Pakistani province of Balochistan, killing two children and wounding several others, according to Pakistani authorities.

Tehran said it “only targeted Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil” and no Pakistani citizens were targeted.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said: “We targeted a group called Jaish al-Adl… which took refuge in parts of Pakistan.”

The attack caused widespread anger in Pakistan, which described the attack as a “flagrant violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran.”

For its part, the Iranian state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that the Iranian army targeted the strongholds of the extremist Sunni “Army of Justice” group.

Following this, Pakistan responded two days later with what it described as a “series of precise and highly coordinated military strikes” on several alleged separatist hideouts in Sistan and Baluchestan.

Announcing the strikes on Thursday, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said that a number of militants had been killed.

The deadly clashes that Pakistan and Iran are waging against the separatists who are active on both sides of their borders are not the result of today, but go back for many years. Their last manifestations were before this week’s attack, which happened last December, when Iran accused the “Army of Justice” militants of storming the center. To the police in Sistan and Baluchestan, which led to the killing of 11 Iranian police officers, according to the official Iranian news agency Tasnim.

Despite this, Iran and Pakistan have friendly if complicated relations. Perhaps the latest manifestation of this is the meeting of the ministers of the two countries in Davos this week and the holding of their naval forces in joint exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf.

On the other hand, the two countries have similar concerns about the lawless border region, where drug traffickers and Baloch armed groups are highly active. After the exchange of blows, each side seemed keen to emphasize that what happened did not represent attacks on a brotherly neighbour.

Both Iran and Pakistan have for years portrayed the insurgency in the border region as being supported, at least in part, from abroad. While Islamabad has accused Tehran of turning a blind eye to militants operating from Iran, Iranian officials have said in the past that Jaish al-Adl is hiding in Pakistan and receiving Israeli support.

Aside from the throwing of accusations between the two countries, the Iranian strikes this week were not preceded by any clear reason or major separatist attack. But observers believe that amid the increasing volatility in the Middle East, Tehran may have suggested that this was an opportune moment to strike the militants it had long threatened to target unless Pakistan took action itself.

In an effort to avoid the situation getting worse, Russia and Washington urged all parties to the existing tension to exercise restraint.

“An unprecedented surprise”

The strike that targeted Pakistan was one of a series of Iranian attacks carried out by Tehran recently, as it came on the same day that the Revolutionary Guard announced the launch of missiles on the Kurdistan region of Iraq, targeting what it called the “spy headquarters” of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. While Iraqi and Kurdish officials denied these allegations.

The Revolutionary Guard also said it launched missiles in Syria, claiming they hit “key leaders and agents” responsible for two explosions that occurred this January in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed at least 95 people, an attack that the Islamic State claimed. “His responsibility for him.

Abdul Karim Shah, Director of the Islamabad Center for Political Studies, believes that the Iranian reaction was an unprecedented surprise, adding that complaints about Baloch attacks by both sides have been the subject of study and research for a long time, and the two countries have worked to reach peaceful solutions regarding them.

In this context, Shah revealed that the two countries formed committees that included officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and members of Pakistani Military Intelligence that visited Tehran last week, as the two parties were about to reach a joint agreement to allow for tightening border controls and exchanging information regarding this.

For his part, Mark Gautalier, a researcher specializing in Middle East affairs, says that this is also the first time that Pakistan has struck Iran, and he confirms that the two countries have no interest in confronting each other, especially at the present time. But he explained that the risk of escalation cannot be ruled out given the volatile regional situation.

Gautalier adds that Iran’s priority currently is focused on the Middle East, with what is happening in Gaza and Yemen. And that any conflict with Pakistan will ultimately be alien and redundant. This is not in Iran’s interest, especially since the matter does not constitute a major security threat to its interests.

For the Pakistani side, it was necessary to respond to what it considered an Iranian provocation, amid the climate of approaching legislative elections, which makes the internal situation very tense. “The main security threat to the Pakistanis lies in India and Afghanistan, but Iran had to be responded to, and Pakistan did so quite openly and quickly,” says Gaultier, before explaining that the Pakistanis’ main security threat lies in India and Afghanistan.

For the speaker, “escalation is not the most likely scenario.” But he added, “Again, we cannot rule this out because the situation is changing.”

“Army of Justice”

The “Army of Justice” was established in the first years of the last decade after the disintegration of the “Jundallah” organization, which had carried out attacks against Iranian security forces for years, but the pace of its work has declined since Iran executed the organization’s leader, Abdul Malik Rigi, in 2010 following his arrest.

Official Iranian media reports indicate that Abdolmalek Rigi was arrested in an operation in February 2010 when Iranian fighter jets forced a passenger plane on which he was traveling to Kyrgyzstan to land in Iran. He was executed by hanging in June 2010.

Activists have long complained that the region has been subjected to economic and political discrimination from the Iranian authorities, who have executed large numbers of Baloch people, on several charges, most notably drug smuggling.

In a reflection of the poverty that prevails in the region, a large number of Baloch work on fuel trucks. They smuggle fuel across the border into Pakistan, where it can be sold at a higher price.

On the Pakistani side, the Baloch complain that they are deprived of their rights, and that revenues from natural resources are not adequately spent on local administration and social needs.

If Abdul Karim Shah rules out military escalation given the strength of the relationship between the two countries and their common interests, and is likely to resume work on finding a solution through peaceful solutions, this is not the case according to Pakistani political analyst Farah Khan, who believes that the latest tension comes about three weeks before the elections. The expected legislative session on February 8, 2023, in which former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is one of the most prominent candidate names, which may push towards further escalation, given that the politician returning from his self-imposed exile in London does not have friendly relations with Iran, and could align himself strongly. Along with the American camp, according to Khan.

Hamza Habhoub

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2024-01-19 16:43:16