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Unemployment of 4.3 percent does not seem like a real tragedy. But when the queue of unemployed people starts to expand significantly month after month, something is wrong.

So one of the minor laws that became a big deal this week read in a garbled translation as “Sahm’s rule”. The author of the lesson, the American economist Claudia Sahmová, is a woman, according to her, the increase in unemployment activities is a reliable tool of the entire recession.

Her observations are based on historical data, from which she can read when to call an alarm. The problem arises when the average unemployment rate jumped half a percentage point above the lowest number in the last year for three consecutive months. What happened now – in July 4.3 percent of people in the US were unemployed, the three-month average rose to 4.1 percent, the bottom of the previous year was 3.5 percent.

When unemployment jumped this quickly in the past, a recession, ie a decline in the performance of the entire economy, usually followed soon after. The public always bears heavily as a huge economic loss.

Interestingly, it makes sense – when a lot of layoffs suddenly start happening, something is up. And the numbers prove it. Claudia Sahm’s lesson applies to nine of America’s last eleven recessions.

Can this suspicion be confirmed by other economic laws? We will find at least five other important indicators that are now giving worrying results:

There are other important symptoms that come out normal or mixed in the US. After all, the world’s largest economy is still growing, inflation is falling gradually, and in the fall the American central bank is expected to support weak growth by cutting interest rates.

Nevertheless, due to the risks listed above, it is true that it takes a lot of confidence to buy shares at a discount with this week’s sales at this time.

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