Accuracy

The European elections are over, however the primary drawback in Greece and Europe stays. The rationale for the accuracy that impacts households in all its kinds. Central is the blow they obtain from meals inflation, which in April was the best amongst eurozone nations and reached 5.4%.

Regardless of the deceleration of meals inflation to 2.6% in Might, costs are anticipated to proceed their upward path within the coming months. With the vacationer season having began together with the “individuals’s baths”, what can we anticipate on the worth entrance of agricultural merchandise – and specifically the fruit and veggies we eat in the summertime?

The costs of favourite summer season fruits are anticipated to see additional will increase within the coming interval. It’s estimated that the stone fruit household – cherries, peaches, nectarines and apricots – might be (and already are) on the middle of value will increase. “The stone fruits have been affected by quite a few adverse elements: fruit failure, viruses, disasters. Peaches and apricots had lowered manufacturing” the president of the Panhellenic Affiliation of Agricultural Recommendation Suppliers “Farmadvisors” explains to “Vima” Yannis Karastergios. “The value of cherries has additionally gone up, however not due to pure disasters. The rise within the value of cherries is because of weather conditions that didn’t favor fruit setting, whereas some rains in the course of the harvest season tore a number of cherries, leading to lowered and degraded manufacturing” he provides himself.

“The rise within the producer value was not massive – about 0.10 euros. Nonetheless, the commerce value has soared and reached 5 euros per kilo.”

THE George Polychronakisparticular advisor of the Affiliation of Greek Fruit, Vegetable and Juice Exporting and Buying and selling Firms INCOFRUIT-HELLAS, has a transparent image of the fruit and vegetable market, particularly by way of exports. “A ten%-15% improve within the weighted common value throughout all stone fruits is noticed” underlines.

10%-15% larger

The professor on the Division of Agricultural Economic system and Growth of the Agricultural College of Athens Konstantinos Tsiboukasfor his half, provides: “In lots of crops, equivalent to stone fruits, there’s a vital labor scarcity. A tough-skinned fruit falls down and is harvested from the bottom. However this can’t be carried out with peaches, cherries or kiwis that are delicate fruits. We have to undertake new applied sciences to reap the fruits of the timber, however this wants the mandatory analysis and time.”

On the identical time, as Giorgos Polychronakis factors out, different summer season fruits, equivalent to watermelons, melons and grapes, are additionally anticipated to see will increase. “Watermelons are bought immediately at costs 10%-15% larger than final yr. General, within the first quarter of the yr in winter fruits we had will increase of shut to twenty-eight%, whereas the rise in costs is predicted to be restricted to round 15% within the subsequent interval”.

Introductions

Nonetheless, some fruits will survive the will increase. “In kiwifruit there’s a steady value fluctuation, whereas in apples and pears we don’t anticipate will increase. Actually, their value will most likely drop as effectively, since solely in Zagora there have been damages” says Yannis Kastargios.

However, a relative stagnation in costs is noticed in greens. “In horticulture, we had a big improve in manufacturing in greenhouses in Northern Greece, which can maintain costs comparatively secure” says the chairman of the agricultural councils.

George Polychronakis focuses on: “In tomato, we’re self-sufficient from the manufacturing of the greenhouses within the winter, however the outside ones are usually not sufficient to cowl the demand of the summer season months, consequently we import tomatoes yearly. The common promoting value of tomatoes immediately reveals a slight lower of shut to three% home and 1.5% imported. We even have small decreases in onions and potatoes, nevertheless, in cucumbers, peppers and eggplants we see small will increase in common costs”. Legume costs are additionally anticipated to stay secure.

As for merchandise that might be harvested after the summer season, the image shouldn’t be but clear. “It isn’t sure what’s going to occur to almonds in October-November. My evaluation is that there might be a rise of their value because the merchants are out of inventory, a big proportion of the crops have been destroyed and there was crop failure.” emphasizes Yannis Karastergios. “There, the producer will logically improve his value.”

Olive manufacturing

There may be additionally a query mark surrounding olive manufacturing. “We’ll must see how the harvest goes within the fall. This yr and final yr there have been massive issues in lots of crops, together with the olive, as a result of there weren’t the mandatory chilly hours” describes Konstantinos Tsiboukas. THE Petros RoussosProfessor of Arboriculture on the Agricultural College of Athens, provides: “Within the olive, flowering has gone higher than final yr however in some crops the fruit has not set effectively. Manufacturing will largely rely on summer season circumstances. If the temperatures proceed to run this excessive and it does not rain, we’re most likely going to be in bother.”

After a chronic interval when the worth of olive oil was excessive – till April (annual improve of greater than 50%) – a decline was recorded worldwide on account of lowered manufacturing in all producing nations within the Mediterranean and Latin America. Actually, in latest days the Spanish market has seen a rise of round 2% within the olive oil market, which most likely alerts a brand new spherical of value appreciation.

The inventory market of… the orange tree soared

One product that has seen consecutive will increase since 2022, however has seen its value bounce not too long ago, is orange juice. Concentrated juice is a commodity whose futures are traded on the inventory change. “The prospects for the longer term manufacturing of concentrated orange juice reached a number of days in the past – on the finish of Might – shut to five {dollars} per pound (450 grams),” INCOFRUIT’s particular advisor George Polychronakis tells “Vima”. Though immediately that value has fallen to $4.25, it’s nonetheless at larger ranges than final yr (about $3.50/lb) and forecasts “level” to additional value appreciation.

The will increase within the value of orange juice are a logical consequence of the destruction of a lot of the manufacturing in Brazil. “Brazil produces about 35% of the world’s oranges and 75% of concentrated orange juice. The decline in orange manufacturing fell from 1.5 million tonnes final yr to round 1-1.1 million tonnes this yr on account of tree illnesses. Final yr manufacturing recorded a rise, however this yr (2024-25 harvest) it’s down 24% up to now.”

Microcarpia

Within the case of contemporary oranges, crops in Greece and Spain have not too long ago had a difficulty of small fruit because of the climate. Based on Giorgos Polychronakis, this led to a lower in exports from Greece by roughly 70,000 tons, as a big a part of the manufacturing was diverted to juicing. In the beginning of final winter, the worth of oranges registered a rise of 30%-35%.

Nonetheless, the worth improve in our nation was restrained because of the closure of the Pink Sea, with the consequence that 25% of Egypt’s manufacturing is directed to the markets of the European Union and Russia as an alternative of these of Southeast Asia and the Gulf.

“In fact, now Egypt’s manufacturing is ending and home manufacturing right now is proscribed to the Valencia selection, so we anticipate costs to extend because of the restricted provide as effectively. As we can’t import from Brazil on account of tremendously lowered manufacturing there, we might be pressured to import from South Africa to fulfill demand, which in the summertime months is larger on account of tourism. This situation will result in an additional improve within the value of oranges” estimates the INCOFRUIT marketing consultant. Piraeus Financial institution additionally involves this conclusion within the Month-to-month Agricultural Product Worth Bulletin for Might: “For orange juice, the considerably lowered manufacturing of oranges might enhance its value.”

Excessive prices

In the identical bulletin, Piraeus speaks of additional will increase in different agricultural merchandise with market worth, equivalent to corn and wheat.

These value will increase will after all additionally have an effect on Greece. “Home manufacturing doesn’t play a giant position in grain, as a result of it’s a international market product and is dependent upon giant crops in Ukraine, Russia and Canada. The wants are met by means of imports, however transport prices have skyrocketed, so uncooked materials imports have develop into tougher,” explains the president of the Panhellenic Affiliation of Agricultural Advisory Suppliers Farmadvisors Yannis Karastergios.

Correspondingly, giant will increase are famous within the worldwide markets of cocoa and low, resulting in appreciation of all their derivatives.
The inflation triggered by the pandemic and the successive crises that adopted (Ukraine, Center East) have disrupted worldwide in addition to home commerce. On the identical time, local weather change is exhibiting us its enamel with pure disasters and excessive climate occasions that endanger particularly main manufacturing.

“Local weather change considerably impacts manufacturing” factors out Professor of Agricultural Economic system and Growth Constantinos Tsiboukas. “Vitality and gasoline prices are main farmers to curtail some operations, leading to lowered manufacturing. The excessive value of manufacturing and the elevated costs lead, in flip, to a discount in consumption, forming a very unfavorable scenario for the entire of Greek agriculture,” he concludes.

Coordination: Angel Skordas

He writes: Petros Konstantinidis

Diligence: Panagiotis Sotiris