Super El Niño Projected to Cause Over 450,000 Excess Heat Deaths Globally By Early 2027
South Africa is projected to record 1,200 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to data from the Climate Impact Lab. The surge in mortality is driven by an ongoing super El Niño event that is pushing regional temperatures well above normal seasonal averages and placing the country among the top 50 most affected globally.
Super El Niño Triggers Severe Mortality Projections Across South Africa
The Climate Impact Lab, a research consortium backed by the University of Chicago, released data projecting that South Africa will face 1,200 excess heat-related deaths during the six-month window from September 2026 to February 2027. These figures represent mortality above and beyond what the country would expect during a normal year, driven directly by elevated temperatures accompanying the current weather phenomenon.
Professor Willem Landman, a meteorologist at the University of Pretoria, noted that South Africans are at the start of what will likely be the mother of all El Niños. Every two to seven years, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms, triggering widespread atmospheric disruptions across the globe.
Francois Engelbrecht, a distinguished professor of climatology at the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, explained that the warming of the Pacific Ocean over tens of thousands of square kilometers disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide.
Global Scale of the Current El Niño Event
On a planetary scale, the figures are significantly larger. Researchers forecast more than 451,000 excess heat deaths globally for the first nine months of the event, spanning from June 2026 through February 2027. Of that total, 239,000 deaths are concentrated in the six-month period between September 2026 and February 2027.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor at the University of Chicago, emphasized the human toll behind the statistical models. The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents, children, grandparents, and neighbors going about their daily lives.
The heaviest regional burden falls on the African Sahel, which is projected to see 66,800 additional heat-related deaths during the September-to-February window. Other heavily impacted tropical nations include Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil.
Local Meteorological Forecasts and Official Warnings
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has previously indicated that 2027 could be the warmest year ever recorded as the country braces for the strongest El Niño event in living memory. A strong El Niño occurs when sea surfaces in the tropical Pacific rise 1.5°C above normal over a three-month average, while a very strong event reaches a 2°C anomaly. Current forecasts indicate this event may exceed the 3°C mark.
Dr. Christien Engelbrecht, lead scientist for long-range forecasting at SAWS, reported that seasonal temperature predictions for South Africa indicate very high probabilities for above-normal temperatures throughout the summer. In response, Rudzani Malala, senior manager for disaster risk reduction at SAWS, urged the public to monitor impact-based weather forecasts and warnings closely.
Researchers and disaster management authorities stress that early protective measures, such as enhanced heat forecasts, cooling shelters, and protections for outdoor workers, are critical to mitigating the mortality toll as the intense summer heat continues.