S&P 500 to Drop: GDP & Inflation Data Weigh on Markets

by Priya Shah – Business Editor

S&P 500 futures declined in early trading Friday, as investors braced for the release of key U.S. Economic data, including revised fourth-quarter GDP figures and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to offer further insight into the trajectory of price pressures and potential implications for monetary policy.

As of 6:00 AM EST, S&P 500 futures were down slightly, according to Barchart.com. Nasdaq futures held steady, even as Dow Jones futures too edged lower. Trading volume was subdued, with the U.S. Stock market officially closed for the Presidents Day holiday. Despite the holiday, futures trading provided an early indication of investor sentiment ahead of the economic releases.

The revised GDP data will provide a more comprehensive look at economic growth during the final three months of 2023. Initial estimates had indicated a robust expansion, but economists will be scrutinizing the revised figures for any signs of a slowdown. Simultaneously, the PCE price index is anticipated to reveal whether inflationary pressures are continuing to moderate, or if they are proving more persistent than previously thought.

FXStreet reported that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were contained within Thursday’s trading range, suggesting a degree of caution among investors. This consolidation occurred as market participants awaited the economic data releases, which are widely expected to influence trading decisions in the coming days. Invezz noted that Dow Jones futures were also in the red, mirroring the cautious sentiment.

TechStock² highlighted that despite the market closure for Presidents Day, S&P 500 futures experienced a slight uptick as the GDP and PCE inflation data loomed. This suggests some anticipatory buying, though the overall trend remained subdued. The market’s reaction to the data releases is expected to be significant, potentially setting the tone for trading in the week ahead.

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