South Florida Winter 2026: Drought, Extreme Temps & Climate Change Impacts

A complex winter season has officially ended in South Florida, marked by a stark contrast of weather extremes and a significant drought, according to the National Weather Service in Miami. While average temperatures finished near normal, the period was defined by both unusually warm spells and intense cold snaps.

The most prominent feature of the winter, spanning December to February, was a substantial lack of rainfall. Much of South Florida received between one and three inches of precipitation, a deficit of as much as five inches below average. This deficit rapidly intensified drought conditions, progressing from moderate dryness in December to severe and even extreme drought (D3) by late February.

The dry conditions fueled multiple large-scale wildfires, including one that burned over 8,600 acres in Glades County. The agricultural sector also sustained considerable damage following periods of freezing temperatures.

Despite the overall moderate temperature balance, the season was characterized by significant variability. Miami concluded the winter only one degree Fahrenheit below average, while West Palm Beach finished slightly above. Yet, the season unfolded in two distinct halves.

December was notably warm, ranking among the 15 warmest on record at several stations. But beginning in mid-January, a shift in atmospheric patterns brought Arctic air masses to South Florida, resulting in one of the coldest periods in over a decade.

From late January through early February, average temperatures plummeted 10 to 11 degrees below normal, with minimum temperatures reaching as low as 22°F inland. Even areas within South Florida, including parts of Miami-Dade and Broward counties, experienced temperatures near freezing. Palm Beach recorded two consecutive mornings of 30°F, a phenomenon not seen since 1989.

Counterintuitively, the winter also saw a higher-than-average number of days with temperatures reaching 80°F or higher – a key indicator of winter warmth in the region. West Palm Beach recorded 49 such days, compared to a normal average of 34. Miami experienced 48 warm days, exceeding its typical 43, and Fort Lauderdale saw 42 days above 80°F, up from a normal 35. Naples also observed 43 warm days, surpassing its climatological average.

This excess of warm days coincided with an unusual increase in cold days. Miami recorded 14 days with temperatures below 50°F, more than double its average of six days, while other localities also exceeded their normal number of cold nights. The winter, featured both more warmth and more significant cold episodes than usual.

This pattern reinforces a growing trend: in a changing climate, cold events are not necessarily eliminated, but rather, variability increases, with more pronounced swings between warm and cold temperatures within the same season. Globally, this winter unfolded against a backdrop of climate change, with Climate Central reporting that more than one-sixth of the world’s population experienced daily temperatures influenced by climate change between December and February. At times, this figure exceeded three billion people. The analysis also indicated that in 124 countries, people experienced at least 30 days with temperatures significantly affected by global warming, while millions were exposed to heat waves that would not have occurred without human influence on the climate.

For South Florida, the winter of 2025-2026 offers several lessons. The combination of drought, intense cold snaps, and high thermal variability points to an increasingly volatile climate, with direct impacts on sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and wildfire management. Forecasts indicate a trend toward above-normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions in the short term, potentially prolonging the risk of wildfires in the region.