Key Inflation Data Set to drop Amid Government Shutdown
WASHINGTON – A crucial report on September inflation is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET today, marking the first major economic data release since the government shutdown began on October 1st. The Consumer price index (CPI) arrives as economists predict a continued rise in prices, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy and future Social Security benefits.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Bloomberg anticipate the overall annual inflation rate will climb to 3.1% for the 12 months ending in September. This would maintain the same persistent month-over-month pace seen for over two years, and remains substantially above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The data release comes as earnings have also reached a post-pandemic high in the second quarter of this year, but rising prices haven’t eased the financial strain on consumers.Recent surveys from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan show consumers are increasingly concerned about prices and inflation, surpassing even tariffs as their top worry. The University of Michigan’s October survey revealed a 22% drop in overall consumer sentiment compared to the same month last year.
analysts are offering varied predictions for the CPI report.Bank of America economists expect tariffs to continue contributing to goods price inflation in the coming quarters, while anticipating a decline in used-car prices could moderate the overall inflation rate. Goldman Sachs analysts, however, predict an acceleration in headline inflation driven by higher gasoline prices and continued elevated food inflation.
The impact of this CPI data is expected to be amplified by the ongoing government shutdown, which has created a weeks-long blackout on other economic indicators. The report will be closely scrutinized by the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its policy meeting on October 28-29, where committee members will discuss potential further interest rate cuts.
Furthermore, the July, August, and September inflation data will serve as key benchmarks for determining the Social security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026. The release of the COLA, initially planned for mid-October, was also delayed due to the government shutdown.
