SA Election 2026: Labor Landslide as Poll Bludger Predicts Majority Win

South Australia’s Labor government, led by Premier Peter Malinauskas, has secured a second term in a landslide victory, according to results reported by The Poll Bludger. The outcome marks a significant blow to the Liberal Party, while also witnessing a substantial surge in support for One Nation.

Currently, Labor is projected to win 31 of the 47 lower house seats, with the Liberals taking four, One Nation one, and independents one. Ten seats remain in doubt, but even with a conservative assignment of those seats, Labor is expected to hold 35, One Nation four, the Liberals four, and independents four. This represents a gain of eight seats for Labor compared to the 2022 election.

Primary vote data reveals a complex shift in the electorate. Labor received 37.8% of the primary vote, a decrease of 1.9% from the 2022 election. Yet, this was overshadowed by One Nation’s dramatic rise to 20.8%, an increase of 18.5%. The Liberals suffered a significant decline, securing only 18.4% of the primary vote, down 16.9%. The Greens saw a modest increase to 12.0%, while independents garnered 5.6%.

The two-party preferred vote estimate places Labor at 59.2% and the Liberals at 40.8%, representing a 4.6% swing towards Labor. This outcome is particularly notable given that Labor is a first-term government and faced potential headwinds from the performance of the federal Labor government.

Despite One Nation’s strong showing in primary votes – surpassing the Liberals by 3.4% – the translation of these votes into seats remains to be fully determined. The Poll Bludger’s map currently indicates that only one Adelaide seat, Bragg, has been won by a conservative party, held by the Liberals.

Election officials are currently addressing inaccuracies in the initial two-candidate preferred counts in several seats. The electoral commission incorrectly selected the candidates for the two-candidate preferred count in numerous locations, necessitating a realignment of votes between the correct contenders. This issue arose due to One Nation’s surge, which disrupted the traditional Labor vs. Liberal two-candidate selection process. The corrections are expected to be completed early next week.

The counting of a large volume of pre-poll votes is ongoing and may influence individual seat results, but is not expected to alter the overall landslide victory for Labor. Final primary vote figures will not be available for at least another week.

An experimental AI-powered poll conducted by Resolve on March 16 for Nine newspapers offered a slightly different picture, with Labor at 32%, One Nation at 28%, the Liberals at 18%, the Greens at 10%, and others at 11%. This poll was conducted alongside four other SA polls covered Friday, and was described as “experimental.”

Further details on the upper house results, where 11 of the 22 members were determined by statewide proportional representation with preferences, will be released Sunday morning. A quota for election in the upper house is one-twelfth of the vote, or 8.3%.