Rupiah to Weaken to 17,050 vs USD After Eid Holiday: Experts Predict

The Indonesian rupiah is forecast to weaken further in the immediate aftermath of the Eid al-Fitr holiday, potentially reaching 17,050 against the US dollar by Wednesday, March 25, 2026. The anticipated decline is attributed to a strengthening US dollar index and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are driving up global oil prices.

Commodity and currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicted the weakening trend, stating, “When the market opens on Wednesday, it’s very likely the rupiah will weaken. My target for next week is Rp 17,050.” He explained that the dollar’s strength is being bolstered by the tendency of central banks worldwide to maintain high interest rates.

Assuaibi noted that some countries, such as Australia, have even increased interest rates amid concerns about inflation stemming from rising energy prices, particularly Brent crude, which is expected to trade in the range of US$113 to US$116 per barrel. “High interest rate policies are likely to occur again, and this will likely push the dollar index towards 101.10, which will impact the weakening of the rupiah,” he said.

Despite these external pressures, the Indonesian government and Bank Indonesia have been implementing measures to stabilize the rupiah. Bank Indonesia continues to conduct Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) transactions in international markets and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions domestically. The government is also working to improve budget efficiency, aiming to preserve the budget deficit below the mandated 3% threshold.

However, external factors, particularly the surge in global oil prices, continue to exert a significant influence. “Domestically, the government and Bank Indonesia have been very careful in trying to strengthen the rupiah. But external conditions are so strong, especially regarding oil fuel imports,” Assuaibi added.

Recent reports indicate the rupiah experienced volatility earlier in March. On March 4, 2026, the rupiah reportedly “plummeted,” according to investor.id, while on March 20, 2026, it saw a slight recovery, increasing by 20 points to Rp16,977 per USD, as reported by MetroTVNews.com. The impact of the recent Iranian attacks on Israel, and the resulting potential for wider regional instability, is also being assessed for its economic consequences for Indonesia, according to reporting from BBC News.