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Junior Doctors‘ Strike: Reduced Turnout Expected, NHS Braces for Disruption
The UK’s National Health Service (NHS) is preparing for a further period of industrial action by junior doctors, with expectations of a lower participation rate compared to previous strikes. The British Medical Association (BMA) secured a smaller mandate in its latest strike ballot,leading to an anticipated decrease in the number of doctors walking out on Friday.
In the recent ballot, 55% of the BMA’s 48,000 members participated, with 90% voting in favour of industrial action. This translates to less then half of the total membership supporting the strike, a contrast to the 2023 industrial action where a turnout of 71.25% saw 98.37% of voters (43,440 members) in favour of striking.
Healthcare leaders are anticipating that rota gaps created by the strike will be managed locally through the deployment of consultants,agency staff,and other NHS personnel. In previous instances, to cover for striking doctors, healthcare management reportedly overstaffed and postponed procedures, inadvertently leading to a surplus of work for some highly compensated consultants.
Hospitals will be closely monitoring patient demand. Should services become overwhelmed, contingency plans are in place. Thes may include the cancellation of non-urgent appointments to prioritize critical and emergency care, the engagement of additional bank or agency staff, or the negotiation of derogations with the BMA, which would see striking junior doctors called back to work.
Reports from the Health Service Journal indicate that the chief executive of NHS England, Sir Jim Mackey, has instructed trust leaders to restrict junior doctors’ ability to supplement their income by taking on locum shifts during the strike.
Rory Deighton, director of acute and community care at the NHS Confederation, stated that the NHS is anticipating “five disruptive days of strike action.” he emphasized that leaders are “doing everything they can to ensure patient safety and that as many people as possible can still receive the treatment they require,” with patient well-being being the paramount concern.
The BMA has launched national newspaper advertisements to highlight what they perceive as a significant pay disparity. They point to a junior doctor with two years of experience earning £18.62 per hour, while their non-medically qualified assistants reportedly earn £24 per hour.
Dr. Melissa Ryan and Dr. Ross Nieuwoudt, co-chairs of the BMA junior doctors committee, commented on the situation, stating, “Pay erosion has now reached a point where a doctor’s assistant can earn up to 30% more than a junior doctor. This is likely to strike most of the public who use the NHS as deeply unfair.”
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has described the BMA’s portrayal as “disingenuous.” A spokesperson for the DHSC provided figures showing that the average annual earnings for a frist-year junior doctor last year where £43,275, which they noted is “considerably more” than the average full-time worker in the UK earns in their first year. They further stated that second-year junior doctors averaged £52,300 last year, with those in specialty training earning close to £75,000, a figure expected to rise with the current year’s pay award.public sentiment towards the strikes appears to be declining. A YouGov poll suggests that approximately half of the UK population (52%) does not support the industrial action, with 20% expressing “somewhat opposed” and 32% stating they are “strongly opposed.”
