Climate Change: Expect More Record Temperatures in the Next Five Years
The World Meteorological Institution (WMO) has issued a stark warning: the record-breaking temperatures of recent years are likely to become more frequent in the next five years due to climate change. A new report from the WMO indicates a near certainty that average global temperatures will remain as high as they were in 2024 through 2029, with a high probability of a new global heating record being set at least once during that period.
Key Findings of the WMO Report
- High Probability of Record Temperatures: the WMO estimates an 80% chance that the record set in 2024 will be matched or broken in the next five years.
- Exceeding 1.5 Degree Warming: There is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial levels.
Did You Know?
The 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is a critical benchmark set by the Paris Agreement to limit the most perilous impacts of climate change.
Deputy WMO-Secretary-General Ko Barrett emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating:
We just went through the ten hottest years ever. Unluckily, this WMO report shows that there are no signs of a break in the coming years. This means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet in the coming years.
Ko Barrett, deputy WMO-Secretary-General
Implications for Climate Agreements
While the report’s projections are concerning, they do not necessarily mean that long-term climate goals are unattainable. The WMO expects that the long-term warming trend, measured as the average warming over decades, will remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius for the next five years.
Pro Tip
Focus on long-term trends rather then short-term fluctuations to assess the overall progress of climate action.
However, even at the current warming level, the consequences are significant.Societies and ecosystems are already grappling with:
- Heat waves
- Extreme rainfall
- Drought
- Sea level rise
These challenges are not expected to diminish in the near future.
The report reinforces the long-standing call from climate scientists to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Every fraction of a degree of warming exacerbates the negative impacts of climate change.
Regional Climate Predictions
The WMO report also provides regional insights:
- Wetter Conditions: Northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska, and northern Siberia are expected to experience wetter-than-average conditions.
- Drier Conditions: Parts of the Amazon may face drier periods.
- Persistent Wetness: South Asia, which has seen above-average rainfall in recent years, is likely to remain wetter than average.
Arctic Warming and Sea ice Decline
Temperatures are projected to be higher than average across most of the globe, with the Arctic experiencing particularly rapid warming. from November to March, the arctic is expected to warm by approximately 2.4 degrees Celsius above the average temperature of the last 30 years.
This warming trend is expected to lead to further reductions in sea ice in the Barents Sea and the Bering Sea.Similarly, in Antarctica, winter sea ice is projected to be lower than normal.
