Rainy Valentine’s Day Forecast for North Texas

A Valentine’s Day weekend storm system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, and even snow to a large swath of the United States, potentially disrupting travel plans and outdoor celebrations. The storm, dubbed the “Valentine’s Day Storm” by some, is currently developing over the central-south region and is expected to move eastward between Friday, February 13th and Sunday, February 15th.

States from Texas to the Carolinas are bracing for the impact of the system. The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts general rainfall and the development of thunderstorms across the south, extending rapidly into the central-south states on Friday, and Saturday. By Sunday, the storm is expected to reach the eastern part of the country, according to a forecast discussion published by the NWS on February 10th.

North Texas is particularly vulnerable, with a high probability of rain and possible thunderstorms on Saturday, February 14th. Meteorologist Nelly Carreño of Univision 23 Dallas forecasts temperatures around 65°F and a precipitation chance of up to 80%. The system is expected to arrive Friday night, potentially causing showers during the morning and early afternoon on Valentine’s Day. Conditions are expected to improve in the afternoon, with sunshine returning on Sunday.

Further west, in areas of the southwest, the storm is originating from Baja California, Mexico. The storm system is expected to bring a low level risk of flooding to several states. The Center for Prediction of Storms (SPC) anticipates the development of troughs and surface low pressures over west Texas as the system moves eastward.

While the eastern United States had experienced severe winter conditions, including repeated snow and ice storms between December and early February, a recent warming trend is allowing the current storm system to develop. The shift in weather patterns comes after weeks of frigid temperatures caused by arctic air.