Polymarket Under Scrutiny as 150+ Wallets Profit From Alleged Military Secrets

More than 150 digital wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on insider information from the U.S. military, drawing copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could emit signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to an investigation published this Thursday by the non-profit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) and reported by Reuters.

The Anatomy of High-Probability Military Wagers

Prediction markets run on public blockchain infrastructure, but anonymity shields the underlying participants. The ACDC analysis examined all settled markets through May 5, focusing on long-shot bets defined as cumulative wagers of at least 2,500 dollars placed within an hour on outcomes with a 35 percent probability or lower. Researchers flagged 556 accounts dubbed “Orcas” for their precise and selective hunting tactics in specialized niches.

Among those tracked accounts, 152 wallets concentrated specifically on military and defense markets. These select entities amassed a total of 8 million dollars while sustaining an average win rate of 97.2 percent. While researchers noted that the characteristic behavior of the “Orcas” could have other explanations, including pure luck, the report states these wallets are the most likely to operate using military secrets.

Scrutiny on these trading patterns has intensified following cases linking service members to speculative wagers. A U.S. soldier was charged in April with using classified information to bet on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, winning 400,000 dollars. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the soldier who prosecutors say won the money, accumulated his position more slowly and therefore does not appear among the 152 military “orcas” identified by ACDC. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty.

Macroeconomic Risks and Adversary Signal Extraction

Polymarket, founded in 2020, enforces internal compliance controls and routinely refers suspicious trading activity to regulatory authorities, including the data tied to the case related to Maduro. Company spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment regarding the broader 152-wallet cluster. Meanwhile, legislative bodies are weighing tighter reporting thresholds and cross-border restrictions on prediction platforms to safeguard defense-related intelligence.

Mitigating Sovereign Risk in Decentralized Networks