Polymarket: Insider Trading Claims Emerge Over US-Iran Ceasefire Bets
WASHINGTON D.C. – A surge of bets placed on the online prediction market Polymarket, suggesting a potential ceasefire between the U.S. And Iran by March 31st, has prompted scrutiny from experts who suspect possible insider knowledge influencing the trades. Eight newly created accounts collectively wagered nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on a ceasefire, potentially yielding a payout of approximately $820,000 if an agreement is reached, according to analysis of the platform’s data.
The activity coincides with a period of fluctuating signals from the Biden administration regarding its approach to Iran. President Trump initially signaled a hardening stance, then suggested a willingness to de-escalate in a post on his Truth Social platform, according to reports. The timing of the bets, and the creation of the accounts around March 21st, has raised concerns among observers of the platform.
“The wallets definitely [glance like] someone with some degree of inside info,” said Ben Yorke, formerly a researcher with CoinTelegraph and now building an AI trading platform called Starchild. Yorke pointed to the practice of “wallet-splitting” – dividing a large bet across multiple accounts – as a tactic often employed to conceal the identity of a large investor or to obscure potentially illicit activity.
This isn’t the first instance of unusual betting patterns on Polymarket related to U.S.-Iran tensions. One account, created shortly before the U.S. Military strikes against Iranian military sites on February 28th, correctly predicted those strikes, raising similar questions about access to non-public information. That account has not placed any further bets, according to available data.
Polymarket’s assessment of the probability of a ceasefire by the March 31st deadline has increased significantly in recent days, rising from 6% on March 21st to 24% as of Monday, March 23rd. More than $21 million is currently wagered on the outcome. The platform operates on a system where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of an event occurring.
The use of prediction markets like Polymarket to gauge sentiment and potentially profit from geopolitical events has grown in recent years. Experts note that similar patterns have been observed in relation to other sensitive events, including reported plans regarding Venezuela and the timing of military actions involving Israel and Iran.
Polymarket, which counts a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr. Among its investors, has faced criticism and regulatory scrutiny over the potential for war profiteering and insider trading. A recent report in the New York Times highlighted discrepancies between the platform’s self-described role as a source of objective information and the presence of misinformation in its social media channels.
On Discord channels dedicated to Polymarket, users have been openly discussing strategies for capitalizing on the current situation, including arbitrage between different prediction markets and identifying traders with a proven track record of accurate predictions. One post reportedly encouraged users to bet “YES” on a ceasefire based on the activity of several historically profitable traders.
However, the outcome of the bet hinges on a formal agreement between the U.S. And Iran. Polymarket’s rules stipulate that a “clear public confirmation” from both governments is required to validate a ceasefire and trigger payouts.
Polymarket has not responded to requests for comment.