Poland‘s Credit Rating Affirmed at ‘BBB+’ by S&P, Outlook Remains Negative
WARSAW – S&P Global Ratings affirmed Poland’s sovereign credit rating at ‘BBB+’ today, citing ongoing economic challenges and geopolitical risks, but maintained a negative outlook, signaling potential for a downgrade. The decision comes amid concerns over rule-of-law issues,government spending plans,and the potential impact of upcoming parliamentary elections.
The affirmed rating reflects S&P’s assessment of Poland’s relatively strong institutions and economic performance, despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine and inflationary pressures. Though, the negative outlook underscores anxieties about fiscal policy direction, particularly the possibility of increased government expenditure leading up to the 2027 parliamentary elections, and its potential impact on public finances. A downgrade could increase borrowing costs for the government and businesses, possibly hindering economic growth.
S&P highlighted the risks associated with potential deviations from fiscal consolidation plans, especially in light of recent social spending initiatives. The agency also pointed to ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the judiciary and its impact on the investment climate. Moody’s recently downgraded Poland’s outlook to negative, adding to the pressure on the government to address these issues.
The negative outlook from both agencies signals a period of heightened scrutiny for Poland, with the potential for further rating actions dependent on the government’s policy choices and economic developments in the coming months. increased government spending before the 2027 elections could exacerbate these concerns and potentially trigger a downgrade, while a commitment to fiscal discipline and strengthening institutional frameworks could stabilize the outlook.
