Paris Elections: Grégoire vs Dati – Second Round Analysis & Left Unity Concerns

Paris appears poised to remain under Socialist leadership, with Emmanuel Grégoire leading in polls ahead of Sunday’s mayoral runoff election. A survey conducted by Cluster 17 indicates Grégoire securing 48 percent of the vote, a seven-point advantage over conservative challenger Rachida Dati, according to a report from POLITICO.

The outcome would extend the Socialist Party’s 25-year hold on the French capital. Grégoire finished 12 points ahead of Dati in the first round of voting last Sunday, though Dati narrowed the gap by securing the support of center-right candidate Pierre-Yves Bournazel, who was eliminated in the first round. The withdrawal of far-right MEP Sarah Knafo from the race similarly bolstered Dati’s position.

Despite the consolidation of opposition forces behind Dati, Grégoire declined to seek an alliance with Sophia Chikirou of the hard-left France Unbowed, citing fundamental disagreements over approach to local governance. France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has recently faced criticism for his response to the killing of a far-right activist and for comments deemed antisemitic, factors that likely influenced Grégoire’s decision.

The contest has drawn national attention, with French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party ultimately endorsing Dati on Friday. This move followed earlier indications that Macron privately favored Dati, despite Renaissance’s nominal support for Bournazel in the first round. Grégoire accused Macron of interference, a charge the President denied.

The election is being closely watched as a barometer of national political sentiment. According to France24, Grégoire surged ahead of Dati in the first round of voting. Le Monde reported that Dati trailed Grégoire by more than 10 points after the initial vote. The final result will determine whether the center-left can maintain its grip on Paris amidst a shifting political landscape.