Oscars Prediction Markets Missed Ariana Grande and Other Surprises

Here’s a breakdown of the Oscar nomination predictions from Polymarket and kalshi, as presented in the text:

Best Actor

* Cillian Murphy (“One Battle After Another”): 99% on Kalshi
* Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”): 100% on Polymarket, 98% on Kalshi
* Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”): 95% on both platforms
* Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”): 87% on both platforms
* Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”): 77% on Polymarket, 74% on Kalshi
* Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”): 35% on Polymarket, 38% on Kalshi

Best Actress

* Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”): Near-perfect odds on both platforms
* Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”): Near-perfect odds on both platforms
* Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”): 93% on Polymarket, 94% on Kalshi
* Emma Stone (“Bugonia”): 89% on both platforms
* Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”): 40% on Polymarket, Kalshi incorrectly predicted Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”) instead (72% chance).

Best Supporting Actor

The text cuts off before providing details for Best Supporting Actor.

Key Observations:

* Generally High Accuracy: Both platforms were quite accurate in predicting the frontrunners.
* Discrepancies Exist: There were some differences, particularly in Best Actress, where Polymarket correctly predicted Kate Hudson while Kalshi favored Chase infiniti.
* Strong consensus: For many actors (like DiCaprio, Jordan, Moura, and Reinsve), the predictions were very similar across both platforms.