The Tasmanian Liberal government’s hold on power is weakening as the One Nation party gains traction with voters, according to a fresh EMRS quarterly poll released Monday. The poll shows the Liberals’ primary vote has fallen to 29%, down five percentage points since November, while One Nation has surged to 14% – its highest-ever showing in the state.
The results cut the Liberal lead over the Labor party to just six points, the narrowest margin since last year’s state election. Labor currently holds 23% of the primary vote, with The Greens and independents each at 15%, and other parties accounting for the remaining 3%.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff maintains a lead as preferred premier, with 40% support compared to Labor’s Josh Willie at 26%. However, 31% of voters remain undecided, indicating significant potential for further shifts in voter preference.
The rise of One Nation in Tasmania mirrors a broader trend of increased support for the party nationally, though its state-level support currently lags behind its federal performance. EMRS managing director Brad Stansfield noted that One Nation’s 14% in Tasmania is ten points lower than its result in a concurrent federal poll conducted by the firm. “While impressive, One Nation’s 14% is a full ten points behind their result in the concurrent federal poll we ran,” Stansfield said.
The poll data indicates a tightening race between the major parties, prompting concerns within the Liberal party about the potential impact of One Nation on their electoral prospects. Stansfield emphasized the need for the government to closely monitor One Nation’s state-level support in the coming months.
One Nation is actively building its presence in Tasmania, having established four branches across the state’s five federal electorates. A branch launch is scheduled for next Saturday in Ulverstone, signaling the party’s intent to contest the next state election. Tasmanian One Nation representative Lee Hanson has indicated the party is “days away” from lodging its application to register at the state level.
In South Australia, similar anxieties are emerging within the Liberal party as One Nation’s support grows. A recent Newspoll in South Australia indicates a potential wipeout for the Liberals, with the party receiving only 14% of the primary vote just four weeks before the state election. One Nation has reached 24% in that poll, while Labor leads with 44%.
The situation in South Australia echoes the 2018 state election, when the SA-Best party, led by Nick Xenophon, threatened to disrupt the established political order. Both major parties responded by directly attacking SA-Best’s policies, a strategy that may be considered again in response to One Nation’s rise. Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas recently acknowledged One Nation was “clearly going through a moment” during a business lunch, signaling a potential shift towards a more direct approach.
Analysts suggest that the success or failure of One Nation in South Australia will be closely watched nationally as a test of the party’s broader appeal. The Guardian reported that, on at least one analysis, the Liberal party might not retain a single lower house seat in South Australia, potentially leaving One Nation as the official opposition.
