NYC Nor’easter Watch: Snow Possible This Weekend – Forecast & Updates

A potential nor’easter is threatening the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City, this weekend, though the forecast remains highly uncertain, according to meteorologists.

While the possibility of significant snowfall exists, forecasters emphasize that a wide range of outcomes are still possible, from a complete miss to a major coastal storm. The National Weather Service currently estimates a 50% chance of snow for New York City on Sunday and Sunday night.

The storm system is currently situated off the coast of Canada. Its ultimate impact on the Northeast hinges on its track and the availability of cold air, explained the FOX Forecast Center. A more offshore track would significantly diminish snowfall totals.

“A coastal low is really what’s going to determine what happens,” said Liv Johnson, a meteorologist with FOX 5 NY. “If this low moves closer, that increases our chance of seeing some snowfall. If it stays further offshore, which the models are just not agreeing on right now, then our chances decrease.”

As of Thursday, a 30% chance of precipitation late Saturday could begin as rain before transitioning to snow as temperatures fall. If snow does materialize, current projections suggest only a few inches for New York City unless the storm intensifies and tracks closer to the coastline.

Forecasters are closely monitoring two primary weather models: the Global Forecast System (GFS), often referred to as “The American Model,” and the model run by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), known as “The European” or “Euro.” NOAA operates the GFS, while the ECMWF is a private consortium supported by 34 European countries.

The weather forecast for New York City indicates cloudy skies and a high near 42 degrees on Thursday, with rain likely after 4 a.m. And a 60% chance of precipitation. Friday is expected to bring periods of rain with temperatures around 39 degrees and a 100% chance of precipitation, potentially totaling between a quarter and half an inch. Friday night has a 30% chance of rain before 1 a.m., followed by mostly cloudy skies and temperatures around 42 degrees. Saturday will be partly sunny with a high near 46 degrees and a 20% chance of rain after 1 p.m. Saturday night carries a 30% chance of rain, potentially changing to snow, with a low around 35 degrees. Sunday’s forecast includes a 50% chance of snow under cloudy skies and a high near 38 degrees, continuing into Sunday night with a 50% chance of snow and a low around 32 degrees.

The potential storm arrives as the New York City area continues to recover from a historic winter storm in January, raising concerns that additional snowfall could compound existing challenges.

Forecasters anticipate increased confidence in the storm’s track and potential snowfall amounts as the weekend approaches. FOX 5 NY is providing continuous coverage through its streaming service, FOX LOCAL, offering the latest forecasts and preparation tips.