NRK Poll Controversy Sparks Concerns of Tactical Voting Ahead of Norwegian Election
Oslo, Norway – A recent large-scale poll conducted by Norwegian broadcaster NRK is facing scrutiny from election researchers who fear it could be influencing voter behaviour through tactical voting, potentially impacting the outcome of the upcoming election. The concerns center on the timing of the poll and whether its data accurately reflects current voter sentiment.
The poll, encompassing 15,200 interviews, was completed shortly before its release, according to researcher Morten Motrøen, who emphasized the logistical challenges of such a large undertaking. “We must have the assurance that we can deliver at the right time becuase of the size of the project. We arranged a field period and a delivery date with NRK, and finished the field work a little before the plan. We also had to have time to put together, treat and quality assure all 15,200 interviews,” Motrøen stated.
However, election researcher Svein Tuastad at the University of Stavanger believes NRK needs to explicitly clarify the age of the data.”NRK must clarify very clearly that these are old numbers. Then NRK has to do it differently next time,” Tuastad told Nettavisen. he argues that the poll’s potential to sway voters is notably relevant given the current dynamics between the Right party (Høyre) and the progress Party (Frp).
Tuastad estimates that around 10% of voters already engage in tactical voting - choosing a party not necessarily their first choice to prevent another party from gaining power – and believes this number is likely increasing. He warns that the poll could exacerbate the “barrier drama,” referring to the 4% threshold parties must surpass to gain portrayal in parliament.
The concern is that a strong showing for Frp and a weaker result for Høyre,as potentially indicated by the poll,could discourage left-leaning voters,fearing a right-wing coalition. A large, yet potentially outdated, poll could therefore negatively impact the Left’s efforts to clear the electoral threshold.
Tuastad further criticized the media’s focus on polls and perceived “winners and losers,” arguing it distracts from substantive policy discussions. “The media’s focus on polls and winners and losers based on them represents a pervertering of politics. We are now in the midst of an election campaign as we almost do not discuss political issues and the Right is particularly affected by this by the fact that they are now ‘a loser’. Then it becomes an extra burden that a poll is published that may have outdated trends while fresher polls show something else.”
The controversy highlights the complex interplay between polling data, media coverage, and voter psychology in a closely contested election. While polls can offer valuable insights into public opinion, their interpretation and presentation require careful consideration to avoid unintended consequences.
