Nobel Peace Prize: Experts Say Donald Trump Unlikely to Win

As the Norwegian Nobel Committee prepares to announce the Nobel Peace Prize at 11:00 AM in Oslo, expectations point away from U.S. President Donald Trump receiving the honor, despite nominations submitted by Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, nos.nl reported.

The Contrast in Nominations and Political Realities

Last year, President Trump publicly claimed the prize for himself before it was ultimately awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her work promoting democratic rights. The White House criticized that decision, arguing the committee prioritized politics over peace while Trump asserted he had ended eight wars. During a subsequent visit to the White House following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, Machado offered her prize to Trump.

This year, Trump has been noticeably quieter ahead of the announcement, though Reuters reported his nominations by foreign governments. According to historian and geopolitical analyst Ivo van de Wijdeven, the chances of Trump winning are minimal. Van de Wijdeven noted that while the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiated last year has held, genuine peace remains unachieved, and Trump initiated a war against Iran earlier this year—contradicting the core criterion of promoting peace.

The Dilemma Over Washington and Institutional Independence

NRC reported that the Norwegian committee faced an intricate task in selecting a laureate who serves as a global example while remaining resilient against pressure from Washington. Following last year’s choice of Machado—which signaled support for those resisting intimidation from figures like Maduro, Trump, Putin, and Xi—the committee must weigh the risk of appearing to yield to political pressure. NRC noted that in 2010, China imposed restrictions on Norwegian salmon imports after the prize was awarded to imprisoned Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the committee, referenced the shifting global world order in comments to Reuters, indicating that the five-member committee follows these dynamics closely.

Alternative Contenders and Speculation on Forgotten Conflicts

According to a Vietnamese news site, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also surfaced in market predictions on platforms like Kalshi, driven by his international diplomacy and differing stances on trade policy and tariffs from the Trump administration.

Historian Van de Wijdeven expects the committee to issue a signal focusing attention on overlooked conflicts rather than bowing to Washington’s influence, suggesting Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms—local networks delivering humanitarian aid amid the Sudanese civil war—as a potential choice aligned with the Nobel tradition of honoring lesser-known entities.

The five-member committee evaluates candidates across four main areas: arms control and disarmament, peace negotiations, democracy, and human rights. Complete lists of nominees remain sealed by the committee for fifty years.