New York early voting tops 1.1 million ballots
More than 1.1 million New Yorkers have cast early ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 elections, placing the state on pace to establish a new early turnout record for a midterm year, POLITICO reported. The surge shows that voter habits have changed dramatically since early voting launched in 2019.
Early Voting Surpasses Previous Midterm Benchmarks Across New York
When polls closed for the fifth day of early voting on Wednesday night, statewide totals reached 1,110,053 ballots cast. An additional 43,110 city residents cast early ballots the following day, bringing the 2026 early tally to 1,153,163. That figure sits just below the 1,178,676 total early votes recorded across the entire 2022 midterm elections.
With early voting scheduled to continue through Sunday, the state is virtually certain to eclipse past benchmarks. Jerry Skurnik, a longtime New York election turnout analyst, noted that voters are increasingly treating early voting as a standard practice rather than relying strictly on Election Day.
“People did not have it in their system at the time that early voting was a thing,” Skurnik told POLITICO, referencing the pandemic-disrupted 2022 midterms. Skurnik expressed confidence that total turnout for 2026 will surpass the nearly 6 million votes cast statewide in 2022.
Voter Demographics and Party Advantages in Key Districts
Skurnik cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions too early, though he noted that higher overall turnout traditionally favors Democrats, particularly amid rising statewide and national dissatisfaction with Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
In New York City, where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 6-to-1 margin, 357,027 residents voted early by Wednesday night—a substantial increase from the 212,746 city residents who voted by the fifth day in 2022. This high participation provides a strong foundation for incumbent Kathy Hochul as she faces Republican gubernatorial challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.
Outside the city, political strategist Alex Elmasri of the Parkside Group analyzed data from the Hudson Valley-based 17th District, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces Democratic challenger Cait Conley. During the first three days of early voting in that district, 55 percent of participating voters were registered Democrats, compared to 25 percent registered Republicans and 20 percent unaffiliated voters.
Elmasri pointed out that 10 percent of those early-voting Democrats are classified as non-prime voters who participated in one or none of the past three election cycles, contrasted with just 3 percent of early-voting Republicans. “That to me is indicative of a blue wave,” Elmasri told POLITICO, describing it as a sign of an expanding Democratic base.
JD Vance Rallies for Anthony Constantino in New York
The final days of the campaign cycle bring high-profile surrogates to the state. JD Vance is scheduled to travel to New York on Monday morning to rally with Republican House candidate Anthony Constantino in Rome. Constantino faces Democrat Blake Gendebien in the red-leaning North Country seat, where Trump and retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik both secured victory margins exceeding 20 points in 2024.